Category: Patriots Analysis

5 takeaways from the Patriots’ crushing loss to the Chiefs

The New England Patriots lost a consecutive game in controversial fashion to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.

An opportunity to upend the Kansas City Chiefs and hold off a 2019 obituary eluded the New England Patriots on Sunday. Foxborough served as the backdrop for the Patriots’ second consecutive loss in a game that pretty much assured the road to the Super Bowl will be going through Baltimore.

Sound the death knell as every talking head in America writes off the Patriots’ chances in the playoffs.

But don’t expect a Bill Belichick-coached team to get wrapped up in the sensationalism that is to come. It’s on to Cincinnati for the Patriots. Here are five takeaways from their 23-16 loss to the Chiefs.

Officiating was god-awful

Jerome Boger’s officiating crew won’t be invited to any Boston cookouts in the near future.

You hate to put the blame on the referees for the outcome of a game, but Boger’s crew has to wear the clown mask after Sunday’s circus. There were too many blatantly blown calls that robbed the Patriots of at least two touchdowns.

The first was on a potential scoop and score from Patriots All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore off a fumble from Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Instead of allowing the play to finish, the officials blew the play dead and ruled Kelce down by contact, forcing Belichick to throw out a challenge flag to get the call overturned.

Not only did Belichick lose a challenge, but the Patriots also lost a touchdown.

Then there was the touchdown by Patriots receiver N’Keal Harry that was ultimately called back because an official believed he stepped out of bounds. Even Joe Blow in the nosebleed section with binoculars could clearly see Harry stayed in-bounds on the play.

Of course, the Patriots ran out of challenges trying to correct previous mistakes made by the officiating crew—the Kelce fumble and a blown ball placement that helped the Chiefs convert a first down.

It was easily one of the worst officiated games of the season. ESPN’s Mike Reiss had a pool report of Boger’s explanation on how his crew viewed the Harry play.

Boger missed on the explanation as bad as the referees missed on the no-touchdown call. It’s no excuse in that play not being reviewed, especially after the Patriots were hosed on their challenges from previous poor calls.

There was also the obvious pass interference that ruined a pivotal drive and took away what would have been Phillip Dorsett’s only catch of the game. It was simply a bad night all-around.

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Winners and losers from Patriots’ heart-breaking loss to Chiefs in Week 14

Tom Brady and Julian Edelman couldn’t pull off the comeback.

Here are the winners and losers from the New England Patriots’ tough 23-16 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium on Sunday in Week 14. New England managed one final drive into the red zone with a minute left in the game. But the effort to tie the game came up short on the 4-yard line with quarterback Tom Brady throwing incomplete to Julian Edelman on fourth down. The misfire essentially ended the game.

Winner: Julian Edelman, WR

On an ugly offensive night, Edelman was consistent, fiery and productive. Basically, he was everything that the rest of his skill players weren’t. While the rest of the pass-catchers not named James White or Edelman managed 82 yards, Edelman had eight catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. By the end of the first half, he had four catches for 70 yards.

The one downside for Edelman’s night was that he couldn’t haul in his final target of the game on a fourth-and-goal, which would have tied the score in the fourth quarter. Instead, the Bashaud Breeland reached over for a pass breakup, and essentially ended the game.

Loser: Tom Brady, QB

It was another mixed performance for Brady. Again, he had moments of brilliance that went with obvious errors. The most glaring issue, his interception, came on a first-and-10 on the 25-yard line. It was the first play of the team’s drive, and set a poor tone that would carry through the next two quarters.

Brady didn’t anticipate cornerback Bashaud Breeland cheating off coverage of receiver Julian Edelman. So when Brady saw tight end Matt LaCosse with significant separation, the quarterback zipped the ball in that direction. But Breeland closed on the ball and managed a takeaway.

Brady put together a solid fourth quarter, and nearly tied the game. But his struggles were a large reason why New England fell into a quick hole. The Patriots quarterback isn’t to blame for all of the offense’s problems. His supporting cast, past Edelman, has yet to step up. This has been the story for weeks. In a sense, that’s also why Brady is a “loser.” His supporting personnel hasn’t been good enough. His final is a good example. He needed better protection, so he could step into his throw and get it over Breeland. But Brady lacked the arm strength, in part due to his poor protection.

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Patriots vs. Chiefs: Betting odds, analysis and prediction

An opportunity to bury the doubt is on the line for the New England Patriots in Sunday’s heavyweight showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Patrick Mahomes Show comes rolling into town at a time when the rest of the world is ready to write the obituary of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. A heavyweight showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday represents a chance to put all of the doom and gloom talk to rest.

It’s a chance for the Patriots to shift the raging locomotive into the highest gear and speed down the tracks into the playoffs.

The vaunted defense had no answers for the Houston Texans and quarterback Deshaun Watson a week ago. Things will get infinitely more difficult when attempting to ground the high-flying Chiefs offense led by one of the greatest young quarterbacks in NFL history.

Not to mention the inevitable Yoda vs. Yoda coaching battle between Bill Belichick and Andy Reid.

The Chiefs have won their last two consecutive games, including a blistering 40-9 victory over the Oakland Raiders. Watson earned his first win over Brady last week. Will it be Mahomes’ turn on Sunday? The Patriots will enter the game at -3 favorites with the over/under being 49 points.

Why you should pick the Patriots

I’ve seen this story before.

The superhuman Patriots are suddenly reduced to vulnerable and breakable the week after a loss. They’re the Elijah Price team of the NFL. Of course, the story usually ends with them blowing out a really good team and putting the rest of the league on notice.

Many of the issues for the Patriots offense have been mostly based on poor technique and timing. Receivers aren’t running good routes, and Brady is stuck playing developmental coach at a time when he’s supposed to be competing. It’s after Thanksgiving and real football has started.

Even Phillip Dorsett, a veteran receiver in his third season with the Patriots, seemed as lost as rookies N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers last week.

But there is hope for the team to hit its stride late in 2019.

Meyers would have neared 100 receiving yards and probably caught a touchdown pass against the Texans if penalties and a bad route didn’t get in the way. Harry will be on the field for his fourth game with the team, and Dorsett has obviously been around long enough to know what he needs to clean up in Week 14. Don’t sleep on the positives in the maelstrom of negativity.

The offensive line showing some fight last week means Brady should have time to throw against a vulnerable Chiefs defense he managed to carve up on two separate occasions last season.

On the other side of the ball, Belichick was able to slow down Mahomes in the first-half of the AFC Championship. You can rest assured he’ll enter Sunday’s game with some unique wrinkle to throw the young quarterback off guard. The Patriots have the personnel to match-up on the backend of their defense. Without question, this will be the best secondary the Chiefs have faced all season.

Why you should pick the Chiefs

We’re in Week 14 and talking about receivers not being on the same page with the quarterback. That would signal the death knell for any other team in the league but the Patriots. Yet, there’s always the tendency to give them the benefit of the doubt with Brady behind center and Belichick on the sideline.

But these aren’t the same Patriots anymore.

Brady appears to be frustrated with more than just football at this point, and he has arguably his worst cast of receiving talent in his professional career. If the Chiefs can take away Patriots receiver Julian Edelman and running back James White in the passing game, it will likely be another long afternoon for Brady and company.

Seeing the ease at which Watson was able to counter the Patriots beloved zero blitz is also a bad sign heading into a game against Mahomes and the Chiefs’ speedy receivers. Not even Belichick has the courage to bring the house with the human blur, Tyreek Hill, flanked out wide.

The Patriots defense has struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season, and no one is better than dialing up big plays from defensive breakdowns than Mahomes. He’s always a threat to make a play regardless of the down and distance.

Trends

Via Covers.com:

  • Chiefs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games against teams in the AFC.
  • Chiefs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing against a team with a winning record at home.
  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in the month of December.

Prediction

The smart pick is the Chiefs and the over on Sunday.

Rob Gronkowski will be calling the game as a Fox Sports analyst, and Antonio Brown will be somewhere tweeting about it. Help isn’t coming for Brady and the offense.

They’ll need plenty of help when attempting to keep pace with a Chiefs offense that can pile up points at the snap of a finger. It would take a virtuoso performance the likes of what we saw from the Patriots defense at Super Bowl LIII to stop Mahomes. Reid’s play-calling is too good, and Mahomes is too dangerous with the myriad of offensive weapons at his disposal.

If the Patriots offense couldn’t answer the bell against the depleted Texans defense, it’s hard to envision them hitting the switch against a Chiefs unit that seems to be ascending at the right time. It will be more of the same on Sunday. The running game will hardly be a factor, and a screaming Brady will continue to sink when the Chiefs defense set their sights on Edelman and White.

I’m taking the Chiefs and the points.

 

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What Bill Belichick wouldn’t say in Week 14 in preparation for Chiefs

Answering the tough questions Bill Belichick wouldn’t answer.

Bill Belichick didn’t mind discussing Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and the Kansas City Chiefs’ explosive offense. Though he failed to address the fact that they’re not that explosive in recent weeks.

The New England Patriots coach is preparing for an AFC Championship Game rematch with Kansas City. And as usual, he was ready to praise his opponent. He also discussed the strong work from his receivers Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu.

But just like every week, there were topics Belichick avoided as best he could. He dodged topics like the Patriots’ decision to go without a kicker this week. And he didn’t field a question about the Tom Brady drama or the Antonio Brown apology.

Here’s what Bill Belichick wouldn’t say in Week 14.

1. What’s going on with your kicker situation? Can you announce that you’re re-signing Nick Folk?

What he said Friday: “Nope.”

What we think he’s thinking: The Patriots have clearly expected all week that Nick Folk would be returning to the team. He was dealing with appendicitis and missed last week’s game. Perhaps the timeline for his return hit a snag, because they won’t be adding Folk on Saturday. But they will add Folk despite spending the week without a kicker, according to NFL Network. It would have been a truly Belichickian oddity for the Patriots head into one of the biggest matchups of the season without a kicker. He probably would’ve enjoyed the challenge.

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Bill Belichick explains how Julian Edelman can be a schematic weapon

But week after week, game after game, Julian Edelman plays. And delivers.

New England Patriots fans are well aware receiver Julian Edelman is quarterback Tom Brady’s No. 1 receiver.

But he’s much more than that. Patriots coach Bill Belichick told the media on Friday at Gillette Stadium that Edelman is a crucial part in the offense’s ability to attack an opposing defense’s weaknesses.

“I think there are things that come up from game to game, that if you want to do something with an experienced player that can handle a particular situation you’re trying to attack in that game, he’s a good guy to do it with,” Belichick said of Edelman.

There is no shortage of things Edelman can do for the offense, whether that be where he lines up in multi-receiver sets or the routes he runs from each position.

“I mean we’ve been able to do different things with him over the course of his career, and certainly over the last few years,” Belichick said.

Edelman is on pace to set career highs in every major category. He has 82 receptions for 915 yards and five touchdowns in 12 games this season. Current career highs stand at 1,106 yards (2016), 105 receptions (2013) and seven touchdowns (2015) in his 10 NFL seasons.

His production is perhaps even more impressive due to the fact it’s been an injury-filled season for the 33-year-old receiver.

Edelman was limited in practice on Thursday (shoulder). He’s also been dealing with a chest/rib injury first suffered in a Week 3 win over the New York Jets. He left that game in the second quarter and has frequently been holding his chest after taking big hits or making big catches since.

But week after week, game after game, Edelman plays. And delivers.

“Julian’s a tough kid,” Belichick said. “He can work through quite a bit. So, he’s done a good job this year.”

Edelman leads the team in receptions, receiving yards and is tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns (along with Phillip Dorsett). He has played 89 percent of snaps or more in 11 of 12 games this year, including 100 percent of the snaps against Baltimore.

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This is an unflattering statistical comparison for Tom Brady

Tom Brady is drawing unflattering comparisons to a struggling NFL QB.

Tom Brady’s season hasn’t come together like he’s hoped. The New England Patriots quarterback helped the team get off to a strong start in 2019, but they have regressed, particularly on offense, past Week 4.

In fact, Brady has drawn statistical comparisons to Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky from Week 5 through Week 13. Trubisky is getting blasted for his tough play this season, and some believe he could out of a job by the end of the season. (He’s making a rally in recent weeks with strong performances in Weeks 13 and 14.)

During that nine-week span, Brady’s statistical comparisons to Trubisky are not flattering. Brady completed 59.2% of his passes for 6.2 yards per attempt, a 80.3 quarterback rating, 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. Trubisky, meanwhile, threw 10 touchdowns and five interceptions with a 63.2 completion % and an 85.7 quarterback rating at 6.3 yards per attempt.

The biggest difference?

During that same span, Brady was 6-2. Trubisky was 3-4.

It’s a small sample size, and there’s plenty of time for Brady and the Patriots to make things right. But its does provide a look at how New England has struggled offensively in recent weeks.

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Hot takes are out following Patriots’ brutal loss to Texans

Max Kellerman and Rex Ryan are dumping on the Patriots after Week 13.

Here’s a look at the hot takes that followed the New England Patriots’ tough loss to the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football in Week 13.

Max Kellerman: Tom Brady is no longer elite.

Stephen A. Smith defends the Patriots from Kellerman’s criticism.

“I don’t think you know what the hell you’re talking about when it comes to Tom Brady. Either that or you are so fixated on holding onto your ‘cliff’ theory,” Smith said. “Ever since you made the prediction, he’s gone to three straight Super Bowls, won two and the one he lost he passed for 500 yards. I ain’t trying to hear that from you. What I’m saying to you is this, here’s my problem when I say you don’t know what the hell you’re talking about or you’re just holding onto the ‘cliff’ theory, because I think you’re engaging in cruelty. I think you’re engaging in cruelty.

“When you see these receivers and their inability to get open, to gain any kind of separation whatsoever. I have never seen Tom Brady hold onto the football more in my life praying that somebody is getting open. Is he what he used to be? No. He’s 42. We get that part. What I’m saying is this: Where is the sympathy and the empathy? And I don’t expect anybody in the football world to have it because New England has been so dominant for so long. But I’m just talking about as human beings, recognizing the fact that damn it, we ain’t what we used to be as the birth certificate collects a little bit more dust.”

Rex Ryan: This is the worst Patriots team I’ve seen.

“New England doesn’t scare anybody anymore, and it’s because of that. There is no talent out there,” Ryan said. “I mean, (Julian) Edelman’s your best player. He’s a slot receiver, and then James White is your second-best player? There’s nobody else.”

He added: “Whatever Tom Brady has left, because here’s the thing: We talk about their weapons and everything else, but they can’t run the football, and that’s it. And they don’t protect the quarterback. So, to me, it’s you’re out there because you have the greatest of all time, you’ve got the smartest quarterback that’s ever played and the best coach, and so that gives them a chance. They have to get a bye and they have to play at home.”

Dan Orlovsky: Tom Brady’s trust with receivers is dissipating quickly.

“The film validates my thoughts,” Orlovsky wrote. “Trust is like a forest — takes a long time to grow, but can burn quickly.”

Patriots’ season will depend upon Tom Brady’s ability to elevate supporting cast

Can he do it?

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is accustomed to offensive competency, particularly at this time of year. The Patriots have made a habit of playing dead in the beginning of the year. They started 2-2 in 2014, 2017 and 2018 before appearing in the Super Bowl. During those seasons, Brady and the offense looked pretty bad at the outset — until they looked like one of the most efficient and unstoppable forces in the league.

But this year has been starkly different. The Patriots haven’t flipped the switch. If anything, they’ve looked worse over the last few weeks — and it’s the time of year which Brady and Bill Belichick say is most important. Maybe the running game is improving, but New England’s passing game has been predictable. They want to feed Julian Edelman and James White. Brady is far less comfortable with his other options. That’s why the Houston Texans’ game plan on Sunday night looked so impressive (even if it was an obvious one). Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel doubled Edelman and put a cornerback on White. That made life difficult for Brady.

He was doing his best to elevate the play of his supporting cast. And it wasn’t working. He tried sideline motivation. He tried adjustments at the line of scrimmage. He tried trusting them in contested situations. But it wasn’t working for the first time in a long time. All of Brady’s deep targets to Phillip Dorsett fell incomplete on Sunday, and the quarterback’s lone target to N’Keal Harry resulted in an interception. So Brady is, in essence, testing them. But they’re failing those tests.

“Guys are trying. I have no problem — I love playing with Phillip Dorsett. I love playing with N’Keal,” Brady told WEEI sports radio on Monday morning. “N’Keal is working his tail off. He hasn’t had a lot of opportunities out there and he’s learning as he’s going. To expect someone to go out in their third game of the year and be perfect, I think that is unrealistic for anyone. I love what N’Keal is bringing. We’re gaining confidence every week.”

It’s not showing. In fact, Harry didn’t sound sure of anything after Sunday’s game. He said he didn’t notice his playtime decrease or his targets disappear after the interception. And he wasn’t totally sure what went wrong on that turnover.

“I mean, I guess I could have just used my body more a little bit,” Harry told reporters after the game. “I haven’t watched it on film yet. I’ve got to see it first.”

This is the time of year when the Patriots offense should begin to click. But it hasn’t. Brady is 42 years old with limitations, and beyond Edelman and White, Brady’s pass-catchers are a group of average veterans (WRs Dorsett, Mohamed Sanu and TEs Matt LaCosse and Ben Watson) mixed with underdeveloped youngsters (WRs N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers and TE Ryan Izzo).

Brady certainly hasn’t made his career upon developing young receivers — that has long been a weak point for New England, which hasn’t made much of its draft selections at the position (See: Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Taylor Price and Chad Jackson). But Brady has done a nice job getting the most out of veterans like Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan. That hasn’t quite been the case for Dorsett, Sanu, LaCosse or Watson — or even Josh Gordon, who the Patriots cut earlier this offseason.

This season, Brady’s work in elevating the play of those around him has been unsatisfactory. Part of that comes with the offense’s identity. New England wants to defer to their defense and special teams, which Brady has admitted are the strengths of the team. The problem is that when the Patriots must turn to the offense — as they did when they fell into a hole against Houston — they look as unprepared as they did on Sunday.

There’s definitely reason to believe the Patriots can get more out of their offense and that Brady can still find ways to elevate their play. It’s just that they’re running out of time. They have just four games remaining in the regular season, including matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) and the Buffalo Bills (9-3). Brady can get Sanu back into the fold as he recovers from an ankle issue. The 42-year-old can build a rapport with LaCosse as he gets healthy from his long list of injuries. And the quarterback can continue to bring along Meyers and Harry (but Meyers, in particular) to make them a bigger part of the offense. That’s what we’ve come to expect over the last 15 years of watching Brady and Belichick. Somehow, they get better, because they have been the most resourceful tandem in the NFL for two decades.

But after watching this Patriots team for 13 weeks, there’s room to wonder whether New England has the requisite offensive talent to hang with the AFC’s best teams. The cast of pass-catchers needs Brady to make them look better than they are. And he has so far looked incapable of doing that.

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How the Patriots’ loss to the Texans impacts their playoff picture

The Patriots aren’t in playoff peril, but their path to the top of the AFC is complicated.

The New England Patriots aren’t in playoff peril, but their loss to the Houston Texans has absolutely complicated their path to home-field advantage and a first-round bye.

With the Ravens getting a win over the San Francisco 49ers and the Patriots falling in Houston, Baltimore has overtaken the Patriots as the top seed in the AFC for Week 14. The Ravens have the same record as the Patriots, but have a head-to-head win over the Patriots. And not only did the Baltimore win put it past New England in the standings, but that win further reinforces what was becoming clear in Week 9: the Ravens are the best team in the NFL. No one knows how to stop quarterback Lamar Jackson. And the Patriots will probably need home-field advantage to beat the Ravens, if they match up in the playoffs.

Here’s a look at the standings in the AFC after Week 13.

1. Baltimore Ravens (10-2)
2. New England Patriots (10-2)
3. Houston Texans (8-4)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
5. Buffalo Bills (9-3)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)

The Patriots have more to worry about than the No. 1 seed. They have an appointment against the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium in Week 14. Kansas City seemed to get its mojo back in Week 13 against the Oakland Raiders. Patrick Mahomes wasn’t brilliant, but the Chiefs won, 40-6. They didn’t even need Mahomes to be exceptional.

If the Patriots lose against the Chiefs and the Bills win in Week 14, that could would give the AFC East rivals the same record. New England has a tie-breaker with a head-to-head win over Buffalo, which would allow the Patriots to retain their spot as the No. 2 seed. But it would also set up a significant matchup between the Patriots and the Bills in Week 16.

The Patriots looked vulnerable on the road in Week 13. The will need to preserve home-field advantage for as long as possible. And a win over the Chiefs could go a long way in maintaining their lead in the playoff hunt in the AFC.

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5 takeaways from Patriots’ alarming 28-22 loss against Texans

Here are five takeaways from the Patriots’ ugly loss to the Texans.

The New England Patriots didn’t look like one of the league’s top teams after losing 28-22 to the Houston Texans on Sunday night.

In all three facets of the game, the Patriots couldn’t figure out how to gain any momentum. Aside from the exciting six minutes to end the game, the Patriots offense was hard to watch. Bill O’Brien and the Texans were prepared for this matchup and they knew how to counter Josh McDaniels’ game plan.

The Patriots will host the Kansas City Chiefs next week and they’ll see the Buffalo Bills again in Week 16. Although this game doesn’t rule the Patriots out of Super Bowl contention, it definitely exposed some weaknesses.

Here are five takeaways from the game.

James White, Julian Edelman only offensive weapons

The Texans came into the game with a plan to double cover Julian Edelman and to put a cornerback on James White. This plan worked for the first three quarters of the game, and it left the Patriots with only nine points halfway through the fourth quarter.

Despite this intense coverage, both of Tom Brady’s top receivers walked out of the game with solid numbers. Edelman left the game with six catches for 106 yards and a touchdown. White finished the game with 14 carries for 79 rushing yards – along with eight catches for 98 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. Two of these touchdowns came in the final six minutes of the fourth quarter.

It’s apparent going forward that Brady will only have these two as reliable receivers, with Mohamed Sanu and Jakobi Meyers as the only decent options. Philip Dorsett and N’Keal Harry haven’t proved reliable, and it’s put a huge question mark on this offense.

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