Sun Belt Heat Week 13: Win and Live

Coffee is for closers. Time to sign the line that is dotted.

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Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff Committee rewarded Appalachian State’s comeback win of Georgia State by elevating the Mountaineers from 25th to 24th. One needn’t bump his head to know he’s hit a very low ceiling. Of the ranked Group of Five, I feel Appalachian State can beat any of them. Not that anyone has asked me.

Shout out to the Panthers for pulling a page right out of Coach Hayden Fox’s playbook and starting the seemingly mortally injured Dan Ellington on Saturday. This was literally a plot line from Coach. I’m not providing a link. Just trust my ironclad memory for 1980s situational comedy plot lines.

Despite Ellington’s surprise participation, Georgia State didn’t have enough defense to prevent their elimination from the Sun Belt Playoff Sweepstakes. Same for ULM, who gave up 51 to Georgia Southern. With the Panthers and Warhawks gone, Week 13 is a Win And Live week for Arkansas State and Georgia Southern (I can already taste the O’Doul’s) while everyone else plays for the pride and glory of their respective campuses.

Even Texas State.

South Alabama Jaguars (1-9) @ Georgia State Panthers (6-4), Saturday, November 23, 1:00 PM on ESPN+

Panthers have 9.5 points to play with

Congratulations on a solid season, Panthers. Dan Ellington was better than I expected. The wins over Tennessee and Arkansas State were both legit and impressive. But y’all need some defense if you want to thwart the Mountaineers and Bobcats of the world. Maybe start revamping those defensive schemes against the Jaguars, for whom I have no congratulations.

VERDICT: Panthers pound

Texas State Bobcat’s (3-7) @ #24 Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-1), Saturday, November 23, 1:30 PM on ESPN+

Mountaineers by 29, but don’t let that bug you, Bobcats

Monday on Wolf Den, Jay Bir and I discussed Appalachian State and tried to put a finger on their dominance. We couldn’t pinpoint exactly what made the Mountaineers special, except to say they are relentless in all facets of the game. They beat you on defense. They grind you with the run game. They can pass. They can boot field goals. All this shouldn’t bother the Bobcats, who can do those things too, just much worse.

VERDICT: Mountaineers play 4 quarters of murder ball

O’Doul’s “Maintain Your Edge” Sun Belt Game of the Week

Georgia Southern Eagles (6-4) @ Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-4), Saturday, November 23, 2:00 PM on ESPN+

Red Wolves have the 1-point Edge

Listen all! This is the truth of it. Fighting leads to killing, and killing gets to warring. And that was damn near the death of us all. Look at us now! Busted up, and everyone talking about hard rain! But we’ve learned, by the dust of them all… the Sun Belt learned. Now, when men get to fighting, it happens here! And it finishes here! Two men enter; one man leaves.

VERDICT: Red Wolves need every bit of that one point

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (4-6) @ ULM Warhawks (4-6), Saturday, November 23, 4:00 PM on ESPN3

Warhawks get a Monroe 6-points

The Chants and the Hawks are playing for life’s most valuable coin: pride. Go get some pride, boys! Also in keeping with Thunderdome: the winner walks out with a shot at bowl eligibility.  While Coastal Carolina seems to be improving year after year, the Warhawks are treading water, showing signs of brilliance of offense (behind Caleb Evans) while failing again and again on defense. Coastal nearly upset the Red Wolves in Jonesboro. Find a bookie and put it all on Coastal.*

* Don’t

VERDICT: Coastal keeps the dream alive

Troy Trojans (5-5) @ Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (8-2), Saturday, November 23, 4:00 PM on ESPN+

Cajuns favored by 14, but I dunno

Cajuns are having an incredible season, with head coach Billy Napier and the conference’s mightiest run game rolling over opponents without granting quarter or mercy. Meanwhile, the Trojans have endured a dismal season under first year head coach Chip Lindsey. However, Kaleb Barker and Co. have put up 112 points the last two contests, seemingly signaling that the Trojans are not dead and would like to play some post season football. This is a classic original gangsta Sun Belt grudge match that’s worthy of a second six pack of cold-sober O’Doul’s. 

VERDICT: Epic victory for the Trojans

A former notary public, Jeremy Harper is a professional writer and Chief Instigator for Storm the Castle Creative. He spends much of his free time staring blankly into space. 

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Sun Belt Heat Week 12: Knockout

Time for some of y’all to hit the canvas.

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Sun Belt Heat is sponsored by O’Doul’s. Premium content requires a premium, non-alcoholic pilsner. 

Literally and pragmatically, roughly half the Sun Belt field is playing solely for life’s most valuable coin: pride. Go get that pride! Everybody else wants that Sun Belt hardware.

In the East, Georgia State and Georgia Southern did Appalachian State a solid by falling to conference opponents, giving the Mountaineers a nice one-game cushion while enjoying the Sun Belt’s first ever College Football Playoff ranking.

Out West, Louisiana enjoys the same one-game buffer with Arkansas State and ULM. The Cajuns finish the season hosting Troy and ULM and get a road game against the conference’s cadaver, South Alabama, this week.  In summation, four teams are looking at one of two teams to “F” up. That’s the analysis, people. It’s all I got.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (4-5) @ Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-4), Thursday, November 16, 2:00 PM on ESPN+

Red Wolves get the 12.5-point home advantage

After the Chants dusted Kansas and finished the non-con with a 3-1 record, if felt like Coastal Carolina was positioned to make the East a more interesting division. One conference win later, it’s clear that the East is interesting enough and the Chanticleers are still a baseball school, despite getting a solid year from RB C.J. Marable. Red Wolves are on a two-game win streak, is second only to Troy in passing offense and will enter Saturday’s game rested from the Bye. Unless the Chants do something weird – like field 11 Love Boat guest stars or trick the Red Wolves into subscribing to three years of Disney+ – Arkansas State should out-muscle Coastal Carolina.

VERDICT: Red Wolves flex

ULM Warhawks (4-5) @ Georgia Southern (5-4), Thursday, November 16, 2:00 PM on ESPN+

Eagles are chosen by a higher power to win by 7

This isn’t the O’Doul’s “Maintain Your Edge” Game of the Week, but damn it’s sobering and refreshing. Warhawks like to pile on points and yards, courtesy of Caleb Evan’s arm and leg. The Eagles aren’t much for points this season, but they do boast the nation’s 11th best rushing offense (behind Louisiana and Georgia State) and have overcome a sluggish start to remain in contention in the East. However, Georgia Southern is coming off a crummy loss to Troy, who boasts a similar high power offense. The Warhawks won’t stop the Eagles on the ground very often – but a couple stops might be all ULM needs.

VERDICT: Warhawks slip in a win

Troy Trojans (3-5) @ Texas State Bobcats (3-6), Saturday, November 16, 2:00 PM on ESPN3

Eagles by a field goal

Man, Troy has sucked all year. Yet they delivered a flying elbow to the Eagles last week, so maybe the Trojan defense has finally caught up to Kaleb Barker and the offense. Even if it hasn’t, don’t expect too much fight from the Bobcats, who is offensively challenged and will likely throw more picks that TD passes on Saturday.

VERDICT: Troy slobberknocks the Bobcats

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (7-2) @ South Alabama Jaguars (1-8), Saturday, November 16, 4:00 PM on ESPN+

Cajuns by 28 spicy points

This might be the worst game in the world.

VERDICT: Cajuns up by 28 after 1Q

O’Doul’s “Maintain Your Edge” Sun Belt Game of the Week

#25 Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-1) @ Georgia State Panthers (6-3), Saturday, November 16, 6:30 PM on ESPNU

The Mountaineers have the 16.5-point Edge

After becoming the highest ranked Sun Belt team ever by the AP, the Mountaineers followed it up by breaking into the “poll that matters,” the College Football Playoff Committee Poll. Two Power Five victories on the road and a stranglehold on a division will get you that. Meanwhile, the Panthers pretty much sapped the chill out of the O’Doul’s here by 1) losing to ULM and 2) losing dual-threat QB Dan Ellington for “an undisclosed amount of time.” Georgia State’s defense is ranked 116th in the nation. With Ellington, the Panthers might have traded scores and maybe received a bit of home magic. Without Ellington, the prognosis is pain.

VERDICT: Mountaineers yodel merrily out of Georgia

A former notary public, Jeremy Harper is a professional writer and Chief Instigator for Storm the Castle Creative. He spends much of his free time staring blankly into space. 

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