The stakes will be high Sunday night when the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers face off in what could be a battle for the first seed in the NFC playoffs.
Sunday’s game also marks the third in two weeks for the 49ers while the Packers are coming off the bye and are as healthy as they’ve ever been at this time of year.
The banged-up 49ers are looking like they’ll get tight end George Kittle back, however.
Kittle, the 2017 fifth-round pick out of Iowa, is one of the keys to this offense. Kyle Shanahan wants to run the ball, and he wants everything – like Matt LaFleur – to look the same at the snap. Kittle gives them this flexibility. He’s the best blocking tight end in the league. But he’s also one of the best receiving tight ends. He runs every bit of his 4.52 speed, and he’s one of the toughest tackles after the catch. In short, he’s an excellent player playing against a team that has struggled against tight ends.
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The 49ers aren’t a great offense statistically (16th-most efficient, per Football Outsiders), but they’re good enough when coupled with their second-ranked defense. Since 2015, the 49ers have selected defensive linemen in four of the last five drafts. It took time, but with the addition of Dee Ford in free agency (who probably won’t play Sunday), the defensive front of this defense is a gauntlet. Like the Packers, they get to the quarterback without having to blitz all that often, which means tighter coverage on the back end.
The Packers may have had a more difficult schedule up to this point than the 49ers, but there’s a reason this team is 9-1. Shanahan finally has the pieces to run his offense. The Packers will need a plan.
Film notes:
- Nick Bosa plays much like his brother, which can pose a real problem for the Packers. Good size-strength combination, but slippery, tough to engage for tackles. Will slip underneath tackles if they overset. Can bend around the edge. He usually plays on the right side. David Bakhtiari will have his hands full.
- Former first-round picks DeForest Buckner (6-7, 287) and Arik Armstead (6-8, 280) are both gigantic humans on the interior. They don’t have the weight, per se, but their size gives the 49ers positional flexibility across the front four. That said, this front (and the defense in general) is susceptible to the run. Their strength is definitely rushing the passer.
- Inside linebacker, No. 54 Fred Warner, moves well in space and can tackle on an island. The defensive line keeps him clean, but he has good range and is one of the more underrated linebackers in football.
- The 49ers defense is a tough out in third-and-long situations. Every defensive lineman is a capable pass rusher and can win one-on-one situations. The pocket can collapse while each rusher maintains rush integrity (i.e. keeping Rodgers from escaping the pocket).
- Running backs Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman can scoot. When necessary, both Breida and Coleman get to the perimeter in a hurry.
- Coleman functions as the primary receiving back. There’s familiarity, too, as Shanahan coordinated the 2015 Falcons offense, in which Coleman played a similar role. Like Austin Ekeler a few weeks ago, Coleman can cause problems if the Packers want to cover him with a linebacker.
- The Packers will once again face wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. The 32-year-old was Joe Flacco’s most-reliable target for the Broncos early in the season. He started hot for San Fransisco but his production as cooled to a degree (partially due to a rib injury). Even so, Sanders still has excellent quickness and route savvy.
- Rookie receiver Deebo Samuel has also been one of the more productive rookies (behind Washington’s Terry McLaurin) in football.
- Shanahan’s offense will look familiar to Packers fans: there’s a lot built off of similar-looking concepts, and it starts with the run. Expect to see outside zone with backside tight end “sift” blocks leading to play-action passes or screens. They’re going to test the Packers’ gap integrity and discipline.
- That said, the 49ers offensive line isn’t a dominant group. They get the job done and are effective at what they do (perhaps a testament to their run scheme). Starting left tackle Joe Staley didn’t practice Thursday; his backup is 6th-round rookie Justin Skule. Expect the Packers to test this matchup.
- It’s going to be extremely important for B.J. Goodson, Blake Martinez and Oren Burks (if he gets meaningful snaps) to get to the perimeter quickly. The Niners do a great job getting their offensive lineman to the out to the boundary as lead blockers.
- Expect to see a healthy amount of off-man coverage from the 49ers. The Cardinals attacked by getting the ball in their playmakers’ hands in space. We could see a similar approach with LaFleur, with Davante Adams and Aaron Jones get some bubble screens.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has struggled recently without George Kittle, but he’s still a capable thrower. A rhythm passer, Garoppolo thrives within the design of the play. There are open receivers he might miss if the pocket starts to close in on him and he’s forced to reset his feet.
- Nonetheless, he’s capable of throwing with anticipation, as seen here:
[wpvideo ymhjloCQ]
- The wide zone rushing concepts, with play-action and RPO built on top of it, can put linebackers and corners in difficult situations. In the example below, we see an RPO that looks a lot like many of their runs upfront. The linebacker has to honor that, which opens a void in the middle of the field. Because the corner allows the receiver inside leverage easily, Garoppolo has an easy throw for a big gain.
[wpvideo 0w6V9SSk]
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