8-3 Packers in great position for postseason run but have much to improve on

After 12 weeks of the 2019 NFL season, the Green Bay Packers are 8-3, atop the NFC North and firmly in contention for a top-two seed in the NFC playoff race. It’s been about as good of a season up to this point as anyone could have expected, all …

After 12 weeks of the 2019 NFL season, the Green Bay Packers are 8-3, atop the NFC North and firmly in contention for a top-two seed in the NFC playoff race.

It’s been about as good of a season up to this point as anyone could have expected, all things considered.

The Packers will almost assuredly make the playoffs now that they’ve reached eight wins through 11 games. To help matters even further, four of their five remaining opponents have losing records (and three of them are in the bottom-10 of the NFL). The Packers also have a decent chance of locking up a first-round bye and clinching home-field advantage for most of the NFC playoffs.

With all of that being said, Green Bay still has some major issues it needs to sort out if it hopes to make a deep playoff run.

Throughout the season, the Packers have shown some significant flaws, many of which were present in Sunday night’s 37-8 loss to the San Francisco 49ers:

Defense gives up too many big plays

Explosive plays have been a persistent issue for the Packers’ defense all season long.  Earlier in the year, it was less of an issue because it compensated with a high turnover rate, but now that those takeaways have become more and more sparse, the big plays have become a bigger issue.

The Packers had the benefit of playing the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes and Panthers without Cam Newton over the past five weeks, but they were still gashed by explosive plays in both games on several occasions.

On the season, this unit has surrendered the third-most yards per play and they’re currently 27th in the NFL in third-down defense. Against the 49ers alone, the Packers conceded a dozen explosive plays.

A defense that has prided itself on being “bend, but don’t break” has been doing more of the latter in recent weeks. If the issue doesn’t get corrected soon, the Packers could be destined for another early playoff exit in January.

Defense has struggled with defending tight ends and covering the middle of the field

This struggle goes hand-in-hand with the first one.

Over the past five weeks, the Packers’ defense has been eviscerated by opposing tight ends. Last weekend, George Kittle torched them with six receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown. In the four games before that, it was a similar story.

Panthers tight end Greg Olsen caught eight passes for 98 yards, Chargers tight end Hunter Henry caught eight passes for 84 yards, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce caught four passes for 63 yards and a touchdown, and Raiders tight end Darren Waller racked up seven receptions for 126 yards and two touchdowns.

Pass coverage has never been a strong suit for starting inside linebackers Blake Martinez and B.J. Goodson, and backup Oren Burks isn’t trusted enough by the coaching staff to see significant playing time.

The Packers upgraded both safety positions this offseason with free agent signing Adrian Amos and first-round pick Darnell Savage, but that hasn’t solved their tight end coverage woes.

According to PFF, cornerback Kevin King has allowed the most yards in coverage (755) among all NFL cornerbacks this season.

Despite their heavy offseason investments, the Packers still have some major liabilities on defense.

The secondary receiving options struggle to beat man coverage

As Zach Kruse mentioned in an article from earlier this week, the 49ers switched up their defensive coverage tendencies against the Packers. Going into last Sunday, the 49ers played zone coverage on a league-high 69% of snaps, per ESPN and NFL Next Gen Stats, but against the Packers, they played mostly man coverage.

I’ve mentioned it in previous articles, and I’ll say it again: the Packers don’t have consistent man coverage-beaters in their receiving corps other than wide receiver Davante Adams.

The 49ers realized this and took full advantage.

Generally, when the Packers’ offense has faced teams with more than one capable corner, it’s struggled mightily. Against Richard Sherman and Emmanuel Moseley of the 49ers, the Packers managed just eight points and quarterback Aaron Rodgers passed for only 104 yards and one touchdown. Against Casey Hayward and Desmond King of the Chargers, the Packers scored just 11 points and Rodgers passed for only 164 yards and one touchdown. Against Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara of the Bears, the Packers scored just 10 points and Rodgers passed for only 203 yards and one touchdown.

Green Bay probably could have had more success in the passing game if it had utilized running back Aaron Jones more frequently as a receiver in the aforementioned games, but the lack of production from the secondary receiving options is still alarming to say the least.

Not-so-special teams

The 2019 Packers are well on their way to making history… but not in a good way.

Through 11 games this season, Packers’ punt returners have accumulated a net total of -11 yards. No other team in NFL history has finished a season with negative punt return yardage, but Green Bay is right there, knocking on the door.

The Darrius Shepherd experiment was short-lived and the Tremon Smith experiment hasn’t fared any better for the Packers this season.

To make matters worse, punting has become an issue in recent weeks as well.

After a phenomenal start to his sophomore season, punter J.K. Scott has entered a cold stretch. In each of the last four games on a combined 18 punts, Scott has averaged less than 40 yards-per-punt.

Aaron Jones’ usage

Since Davante Adams’ return to the starting lineup in Week 9, the Packers have seemingly forgotten about their star running back’s receiving ability. In the three games since Adams’ return, Jones has a combined – wait for it – one catch for -1 yards. In the four-week span of Adams’ absence, Jones caught 22 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns. Matt LaFleur said it himself in last week’s post-game press conference: Jones needs be more involved in the offense going forward.

Report: Packers claim veteran OT Jared Veldheer

The Packers claimed a veteran offensive tackle on Wednesday.

The opportunity must have been too good for the Green Bay Packers to pass up, especially with starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga nursing a knee injury.

According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Packers claimed former New England Patriots offensive tackle Jared Veldheer, who was released off the reserve/retired list on Tuesday.

Veldheer, a third-round pick in 2010, has started 113 career games for three different NFL teams. He made 12 starts for the Denver Broncos last season.

Veldheer signed with the Patriots in May but soon after announced his retirement and hasn’t played during the 2019 season.

If he passes his physical and is activated to the Packers’ 53-man roster, Veldheer could provide the offensive line with veteran experience at both tackle spots.

Bulaga left Sunday’s loss to the San Francisco 49ers with a knee injury and could miss games.

As it stands currently, the Packers have second-year offensive tackle Alex Light as the primary backup, with right guard Billy Turner, backup Adam Pankey and rookie Yosh Nijman as options behind Bulaga.

Nijman, who spent the first 12 weeks on the Packers’ practice squad, was activated to the 53-man roster this week. He could be sent back down if Veldheer is officially added to the roster.

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Packers not yet ruling out RT Bryan Bulaga (knee) for Sunday vs. Giants

It’s still possible the Packers will have Bryan Bulaga at RT against the Giants.

The Green Bay Packers aren’t yet ready to rule out starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga for Sunday’s matchup with the New York Giants.

Although coach Matt LaFleur said the team would take the week to figure out the best combination of starters for the offensive line, it’s possible Bulaga – who left Sunday night’s loss in San Francisco with a knee injury – will still factor into the equation.

“The goal is to put our five best out there, and we’ll take the week to figure that out,” LaFleur said Tuesday. “We’re going to go through the week of practice and see what combination works the best. I also wouldn’t rule Bryan out at this point.”

Bulaga got rolled up on from behind in the first quarter against the 49ers and didn’t return. The Packers believe he avoided a significant injury, which seems to be confirmed by LaFleur’s hope that Bulaga could still play against the Giants.

Second-year offensive tackle Alex Light replaced Bulaga on the right side against the 49ers. LaFleur kept the door open for the Packers shuffling the starters if Bulaga can’t go, suggesting right guard Billy Turner could slide out to right tackle against the Giants.

The Packers will release their first injury report of the week on Wednesday. LaFleur could give Bulaga the entire week to see if the knee responds well enough to play Sunday.

Mike Pettine’s Packers defense has been hugely disappointing

The Packers offense has tracked well with expectations. The defense? Not so much.

The Green Bay Packers offense was going to be a work in progress. New coach. New scheme. No major additions. Through 11 games, Matt LaFleur’s group is 13th in points per game and seventh in DVOA. That tracks well (or better) with pre-season expectations.

It’s hard to find legitimate excuses for Mike Pettine and the highly disappointing Packers defense.

This is the second year in the scheme. GM Brian Gutekunst added two top picks and three high-priced free agents to a group already stacked with high picks. There have been no major injuries.

Yet the Packers are 14th in points allowed per game and 22nd in DVOA.

Despite a strong start, the Packers have allowed the third-most yards per play (6.1) this season. Seven times in the last eight games, the Packers have allowed 22 or more points.

Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, the team’s two prized free-agent acquisitions, both have 10 or more sacks. Gutekunst hit home runs with both. But it hasn’t really mattered.

Five quarterbacks in the last eight games produced a passer rating over 100.0. against the Packers.

Only five teams have allowed more yards per attempt (8.2) than the Packers this season. Only five teams have allowed more rushing yards per attempt (4.8). This is one of the most inefficient defenses in the NFL on a down-to-down basis.

As a result, there’s been a lot of bending. Overall, the Packers are 27th in the NFL in forcing three-and-outs per drive. And the defense has allowed more passing yards, more rushing yards and more total yards per game than last season.

The only saving grace for Pettine’s group has been an ability to create turnovers (16, tied for ninth-most) and get stops in the red zone (48.6 touchdown percentage, 10th best), but the Packers are starting to fade in those two stats, too.

Despite adding veteran Adrian Amos and speedy rookie Darnell Savage at safety, the Packers still can’t consistently guard the middle of the field. Tight ends are gashing the defense every week.

When a defense can’t cover the middle of the field, big plays are common. And the Packers have struggled to prevent explosive plays all season.

While Jaire Alexander has been a standout cover corner on one side, quarterbacks have picked on Kevin King on the other side. In fact, no cornerback has allowed more passing yards into his coverage than King, the third-year corner who continues to struggle with quicker receivers.

Over the last six games, quarterbacks are averaging 9.0 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 105.9.

How did this happen?

It wasn’t unreasonable to think the Packers could become a top-10 defense in 2019. Pettine showed some encouraging schematic designs during his first season but injuries hit hard and the personnel wasn’t there. Gutekunst made huge investments to make sure personnel was no longer a problem, and the Packers have been blessed with excellent injury luck on defense, but the results haven’t followed.

The numbers are probably going to get better over the final five weeks. The Packers will likely play at least two rookie quarterbacks on bad teams and struggling Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, and there’s no guarantee Matthew Stafford will play in Week 17.

But the last two months have mostly exposed the Packers defense as a paper tiger. This no longer looks like a defense capable of surviving against good quarterbacks in the playoffs, and that’s pretty disappointing for a team that has invested a lot on that side of the football.

Week 12 film notes: It rains, then pours as Packers offense struggles vs. 49ers

Breaking the tape from the Packers’ disappointing loss to the 49ers on Sunday night.

For the second time in three games, the Green Bay Packers played a “burn the tape” game. Against a team likely to compete for a birth into the Super Bowl, the Packers looked like a beaten dog. Under the lights of Levi’s Stadium, they cowered.

But the NFL is a week-to-week league. A few months ago, Patrick Mahomes was a generational quarterback. As of Monday night, Lamar Jackson has become, somehow, more generational in the public psyche. These things ebb and flow.

More importantly, the Packers will be forced to confront some of the fatal flaws that have been papered over with victories. Losses, especially bad ones, are like stepping onto the scale, pre-bowel movement, on the day after Thanksgiving. They’ll make you acknowledge your mistakes and poor decisions.

So what do they need to do to improve? Many things, but they can start by developing a better “get back on track” plan. When the offense has gone dormant this season, it often coincides with an identity switch. Low tempo. Exclusively shotgun. Inside zone run. It’s a lot of what got Mike McCarthy fired, in other words. The Packers need to have better built-in counterpunches.

Though the transitive property isn’t entirely valid, the Niners did struggle in both matchups against the Cardinals this season; while the Cardinals have some up-start talent at quarterback, they’re not on the Packers’ level from a talent standpoint. The Packers may not be as good as the 49ers this year, but the margin probably also isn’t what the score indicated two days ago.

The Packers will get two back-to-back winnable games where they’ll be able to right the ship. The Packers need to be playing their best football in December. Come January, all anyone needs is a chance.

Film notes:

  • The Packers’ middle-of-the-field zone defense is, and has been, an abomination this season. On Sunday night, they had few answers for receivers streaking across the field. As the only middle linebacker on the field for all three downs, Blake Martinez is often the culprit. He showed little feel for his zone, and defenders would easily find windows behind him. Matt LaFleur noted Monday that the Packers executed poorly on the Deebo Samuel touchdown, stating poor weakside coverage from the “hook/curl defender,” who from the film looks like Martinez.
  • Regarding the flat performance by the Packers’ passing offense, there isn’t one easy answer. Coverage was tight for most of the night. But Rodgers missed throws, too. He moved off his first read too slowly on the deep sideline throw to Davante Adams and had Marcedes Lewis streaking open in the middle. He hesitated on a play-action rollout until the last minute, so Allen Lazard had little green space to work with along the sideline. He also could have given Marquez Valdes-Scantling a better shot in the back of the end zone.
  • As a pure thrower, Rodgers is one of the best to ever do it, but he lacks the touch that someone like Russell Wilson possesses in spades. For example, on the aforementioned play-action rollout miss to Lazard, a softer, higher-arcing throw gives the receiver a better chance to adjust; Rodgers could also release the ball sooner, as he prefers firing off low-trajectory missiles in most cases (usually for good reason).
  • Predominately a Cover-3 team, the 49ers played a lot more Cover 1 (man) than the Packers had anticipated Sunday. The Packers struggled. Most routes were spread-em-out, one-on-one isolation routes. They didn’t adjust quickly enough to middle crossers or other man-beaters.
  • The play-action game has also been somewhat stale in the sense that the team relies too much on one one or two downfield “shot” plays.
  • The Packers’ struggles with the Niners’ pass rush perhaps could have been mitigated with greater integration of jet and orbit motion. The Packers found some success on the goal line with Davante Adams’ touchdown “catch” as well as Allen Lazard’s reverse. There were also jet motions that simply helped to freeze the 49ers’ pass rush for a split second. Either way, the Packers have to be more adaptive in-game when their original game plan isn’t working.
  • In a game as lopsided as this one, it’s hard to completely question the approach on defense. If the Packers play some form of complementary football, the issues probably don’t appear nearly as catastrophic. Nonetheless, the Packers’ issues on the back end appear one part technique and one part scheme discipline. Kevin King has been picked on all year, and he needs to do a much better job playing to his leverage. The team as a whole also just doesn’t communicate well. There are coverage breakdowns seemingly every week. It might be time to let the athletes play, utilize more man coverage, and risk the big play over the top because the chunk plays are happening anyway.
  • It goes without saying, but the offensive line had their lunch handed to them. Corey Linsley played, by far, his worst game of the year. The interior pressure has been a killer for Rodgers in particular.
  • The Packers need better answers to pressure. The Cardinals achieved this by moving the pocket and getting the Niners’ edge defenders off their line.

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Packers add OT Cody Conway to practice squad

The Packers filled their practice squad with offensive tackle Cody Conway.

In addition to promoting offensive tackle Yosh Nijman to the active roster, the Green Bay Packers signed offensive tackle Cody Conway to the practice squad.

The team worked out several different offensive tackles on Tuesday but settled on Conway, an undrafted free agent rookie from Syracuse.

The Packers needed to add an offensive lineman to the roster after Cole Madison suffered a season-ending knee injury during last Thursday’s practice and Bryan Bulaga left Sunday night’s loss in San Francisco with a knee injury.

Nijman’s promotion opened a spot on the practice squad for Conway, the 6-6, 307-pounder.

The Tennessee Titans originally signed Conway on May 10. He played in one preseason game for the Titans before being waived/injured.

The Illinois native played 40 games with 33 starts at left tackle for Syracuse, including 30 straight starts to end his collegiate career. He is now the only offensive lineman on the Packers’ practice squad.

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On to New York: Packers need a ‘get right’ game against two-win Giants

The Packers need to get their 2019 season back on track in New York on Sunday.

On to New York.

That’s the new focus for the humbled Green Bay Packers after suffering their second humiliating loss on the West Coast in four weeks on Sunday night in San Francisco.

Matt LaFleur’s team desperately needs a “get right” game against the two-win Giants at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.

There are no cakewalks in the NFL, especially on the road. The Giants might be 2-9, with a rookie quarterback and the 29th ranked scoring defense in the NFL, but the Packers will be in for a dogfight if they don’t bring their best on Sunday in New York.

Here’s what we do know:

– The Packers are 2-0 coming off losses this season.

– Aaron Jones scored seven rushing touchdowns in those two games.

– The offense didn’t have a turnover in either game.

– The defense forced five turnovers, including four interceptions.

That’s a pretty well-defined recipe for the Packers bouncing back from a disappointing performance in 2019. Stick to it Sunday, and the doom-and-gloom of the 37-8 loss in San Francisco will begin to fade.

A win over the Giants would put the Packers back on track for an 11-win or better season. They are favored on the road on Sunday and they’ll likely be favored in four of the last five games.

According to the New York Times’ playoff predictor simulator, beating the Giants on Sunday would improve the Packers’ playoff chances to roughly 96-97 percent.

Everything is still ahead of LaFleur’s team, regardless of how bad it looked Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium.

The Packers now have five weeks to patch some growing holes and get hot going into what will likely be a gauntlet in the NFC playoffs.

How can the Packers start getting right in New York?

Start by getting back to core concepts of LaFleur’s scheme, blocking along the offensive line and turning Jones into the featured piece of the offense, both as a runner and receiver. On defense, Mike Pettine’s group must figure out a way to better defend the middle of the field against big plays. The special teams need to take baby steps and simply learn to get out of their own way.

The Packers are, without much doubt, a good football team. They’ve got five weeks to become a great one.

Adversity in the NFL comes in many ways, but it mostly arrives via injury or a disappointing result. The response is always what matters most.

In Week 4, the Packers fell late to the Philadelphia Eagles and lost Pro Bowl receiver Davante Adams to a toe injury. Instead of crumbling against a tough part of the schedule, LaFleur’s team got creative on offense and rattled off four straight wins, including two on the road against playoff teams from last year.

In Week 9, the Chargers served up a beat down and provided a nifty little blueprint for taking down the Packers. Once again, LaFleur rallied the team together and fended off the visiting Carolina Panthers at a snowy Lambeau Field before the bye.

This time, the Packers will have to shake off another devastating loss and the likely absence of right tackle Bryan Bulaga.

Many will call the Packers a pretender this week, and they’ve probably earned that label over the last month.

But an NFL season is 16 games, not 11, and seasons aren’t defined by one result, regardless of the aesthetics of that result. The Packers have an opportunity this week to put Sunday night in the rear-view mirror and set a different course for the final month of the regular season.

Nothing about the NFL is consistent except for the fact that narratives around players and teams are guaranteed to change. The Packers have been staggered. It’s time to heal the wounds inflicted in San Francisco and wind up a counterpunch on Sunday in New York.

Will third time be the charm for Hall of Fame semi-finalist LeRoy Butler?

The long-time Packers safety has a strong case for the Hall of Fame, but will voters agree? He’s a semi-finalist for the third straight year.

For the third time in three years, long-time Green Bay Packers safety LeRoy Butler is one of the 25 semi-finalists for enshrinement into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Butler is one of six defensive backs among the semi-finalists, joining Steve Atwater, John Lynch, Darren Woodson, Troy Polamalu and Ronde Barber.

The next step for Butler is becoming one of the 15 finalists for the first time. Those 15 players will be announced by the Pro Football Hall of Fame on Jan. 2, 2020. From there, five modern era players will be picked for the 2020 Pro Football Hall of Fame class.

Butler is a four-time All-Pro, four-time Pro Bowler and a member of the 1990s All-Decade Team. He helped the Packers win Super Bowl XXXI and was the first defensive back in history to produce 20 career interceptions and 20 career sacks.

The Packers selected Butler out of Florida State with a second-round pick in 1990. He played in 181 regular-season games with 165 starts over 12 seasons and produced 38 interceptions, 13 forced fumbles, 10 fumble recoveries, 20.5 sacks and three touchdowns.

In terms of “Approximate Value,” a player value statistic developed by pro-football-reference.com, Butler ranked 29th among all NFL players and third among defensive backs between 1990-99.

He was also one of only 14 players to be named a first-team All-Pro four times during the decade. The 13 others are all Hall of Famers.

Butler and Atwater are currently the only first-team players from the 1990’s All-Decade team that haven’t been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Thirty-two other players from that team are already Hall of Famers.

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Packers promote OT Yosh Nijman from practice squad to fill roster

Rookie offensive tackle Yosh Nijman will fill the roster spot vacated by Cole Madison.

The Green Bay Packers filled the open roster spot left by Cole Madison’s placement on injured reserve with the promotion of rookie offensive tackle Yosh Nijman from the practice squad, according to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

The Packers’ offensive line, once injury-free, now needs the help.

Madison suffered a season-ending knee injury during practice last Thursday, and starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga left Sunday night’s loss to the San Francisco 49ers with a knee injury that could keep him out several weeks.

Nijman, at 6-7, has tremendous measurables but entered the NFL as a raw offensive tackle prospect. He was with the Packers during training camp and has spent the entire season on the practice squad. He’ll provide the Packers with an emergency option should more injuries strike the position.

Packers coach Matt LaFleur kept the door open for moving starting right guard Billy Turner out to right tackle, a backup plan they’ve practiced dating back to training camp. In that scenario, backup interior offensive lineman Lucas Patrick would be the front runner to taking over Turner’s spot at right guard and leave Alex Light – who played in place of Bulaga on Sunday night – as the backup tackle on both sides.

Nijman, a converted defensive end, started 22 games at left tackle and 11 at right tackle at Virginia Tech.

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Tight ends are carving up the Packers’ defense

The Packers can’t over the middle of the field, and tight ends are taking full advantage.

The Green Bay Packers’ inability to cover the middle of the field has made life really easy on opposing tight ends.

Over the last five games, the Packers have been carved up by the position.

In games against the Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers, the Packers gave up 36 completions for 546 yards and five touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

The destruction began against the Raiders on Oct. 20 against the Raiders and continued well into Sunday night’s implosion in San Francisco. Mike Pettine has healthy linebackers and safeties, and he even had the opportunity to re-assess his coverage against tight ends during the bye week. The issues covering the middle of the field are becoming inexcusable.

The Packers came off the bye and gave up six catches on six targets for 126 yards and a game-sealing, 61-yard touchdown to George Kittle. Three of his catches went for 20 or more yards.

Here’s the recent damage from tight ends:

Darren Waller/Foster Moreau/Derek Carrier: 11 catches, 172 yards, 3 TDs
Travis Kelce: 4 catches, 63 yards, TD
Hunter Henry: 7 catches, 84 yards
Greg Olsen: 8 catches, 98 yards
George Kittle: 6 catches, 129 yards, TD

Up next for the Packers is Evan Engram and the New York Giants. He’s a big, athletic target who has 44 catches, almost 500 receiving yards and three scores this season.

Overall, the Packers have allowed the third-most receiving yards and fourth-most receiving touchdowns to the tight end position in 2019. Until Pettine’s defense figures out the issues in the middle of the field, the Packers will continue to get gashed by tight ends.