After 12 weeks of the 2019 NFL season, the Green Bay Packers are 8-3, atop the NFC North and firmly in contention for a top-two seed in the NFC playoff race.
It’s been about as good of a season up to this point as anyone could have expected, all things considered.
The Packers will almost assuredly make the playoffs now that they’ve reached eight wins through 11 games. To help matters even further, four of their five remaining opponents have losing records (and three of them are in the bottom-10 of the NFL). The Packers also have a decent chance of locking up a first-round bye and clinching home-field advantage for most of the NFC playoffs.
With all of that being said, Green Bay still has some major issues it needs to sort out if it hopes to make a deep playoff run.
Throughout the season, the Packers have shown some significant flaws, many of which were present in Sunday night’s 37-8 loss to the San Francisco 49ers:
Defense gives up too many big plays
Explosive plays have been a persistent issue for the Packers’ defense all season long. Earlier in the year, it was less of an issue because it compensated with a high turnover rate, but now that those takeaways have become more and more sparse, the big plays have become a bigger issue.
The Packers had the benefit of playing the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes and Panthers without Cam Newton over the past five weeks, but they were still gashed by explosive plays in both games on several occasions.
On the season, this unit has surrendered the third-most yards per play and they’re currently 27th in the NFL in third-down defense. Against the 49ers alone, the Packers conceded a dozen explosive plays.
A defense that has prided itself on being “bend, but don’t break” has been doing more of the latter in recent weeks. If the issue doesn’t get corrected soon, the Packers could be destined for another early playoff exit in January.
Defense has struggled with defending tight ends and covering the middle of the field
This struggle goes hand-in-hand with the first one.
Over the past five weeks, the Packers’ defense has been eviscerated by opposing tight ends. Last weekend, George Kittle torched them with six receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown. In the four games before that, it was a similar story.
Panthers tight end Greg Olsen caught eight passes for 98 yards, Chargers tight end Hunter Henry caught eight passes for 84 yards, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce caught four passes for 63 yards and a touchdown, and Raiders tight end Darren Waller racked up seven receptions for 126 yards and two touchdowns.
Pass coverage has never been a strong suit for starting inside linebackers Blake Martinez and B.J. Goodson, and backup Oren Burks isn’t trusted enough by the coaching staff to see significant playing time.
The Packers upgraded both safety positions this offseason with free agent signing Adrian Amos and first-round pick Darnell Savage, but that hasn’t solved their tight end coverage woes.
According to PFF, cornerback Kevin King has allowed the most yards in coverage (755) among all NFL cornerbacks this season.
Despite their heavy offseason investments, the Packers still have some major liabilities on defense.
The secondary receiving options struggle to beat man coverage
As Zach Kruse mentioned in an article from earlier this week, the 49ers switched up their defensive coverage tendencies against the Packers. Going into last Sunday, the 49ers played zone coverage on a league-high 69% of snaps, per ESPN and NFL Next Gen Stats, but against the Packers, they played mostly man coverage.
I’ve mentioned it in previous articles, and I’ll say it again: the Packers don’t have consistent man coverage-beaters in their receiving corps other than wide receiver Davante Adams.
The 49ers realized this and took full advantage.
Generally, when the Packers’ offense has faced teams with more than one capable corner, it’s struggled mightily. Against Richard Sherman and Emmanuel Moseley of the 49ers, the Packers managed just eight points and quarterback Aaron Rodgers passed for only 104 yards and one touchdown. Against Casey Hayward and Desmond King of the Chargers, the Packers scored just 11 points and Rodgers passed for only 164 yards and one touchdown. Against Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara of the Bears, the Packers scored just 10 points and Rodgers passed for only 203 yards and one touchdown.
Green Bay probably could have had more success in the passing game if it had utilized running back Aaron Jones more frequently as a receiver in the aforementioned games, but the lack of production from the secondary receiving options is still alarming to say the least.
Not-so-special teams
The 2019 Packers are well on their way to making history… but not in a good way.
Through 11 games this season, Packers’ punt returners have accumulated a net total of -11 yards. No other team in NFL history has finished a season with negative punt return yardage, but Green Bay is right there, knocking on the door.
The Darrius Shepherd experiment was short-lived and the Tremon Smith experiment hasn’t fared any better for the Packers this season.
To make matters worse, punting has become an issue in recent weeks as well.
After a phenomenal start to his sophomore season, punter J.K. Scott has entered a cold stretch. In each of the last four games on a combined 18 punts, Scott has averaged less than 40 yards-per-punt.
Aaron Jones’ usage
Since Davante Adams’ return to the starting lineup in Week 9, the Packers have seemingly forgotten about their star running back’s receiving ability. In the three games since Adams’ return, Jones has a combined – wait for it – one catch for -1 yards. In the four-week span of Adams’ absence, Jones caught 22 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns. Matt LaFleur said it himself in last week’s post-game press conference: Jones needs be more involved in the offense going forward.