Draft Strategy – Syndication Server

Scratching the sports-betting itch with 2020 fantasy football best-ball drafts

Missing fantasy football and gambling? Combine them with a best-ball draft. Place the bet on yourself!

While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread across America and the globe, almost all of our preferred pastimes have been put on hold, at least when it comes to team sports. There are plans in place for all four major American team sports to resume fairly soon, although much uncertainty remains.

During this time, fantasy sports and betting enthusiasts are either looking to satisfy their hunger by playing daily fantasy golf or even dipping into the NASCAR pond, but we still can get our kicks by drafting season-long fantasy football teams in the form of best-ball competitions.

How it works

No roster adjustments are needed after the team is assembled, and gamers can draft either the old-fashioned way or with a slow-draft format that notifies them when it’s their turn to pick within an allotted time (usually around four hours).

Many services offer these contests, and I recently drafted my first 2020 best-ball roster. I’ve done hundreds of these drafts throughout the years, but the cloudy outlook of whether we even will have an NFL season had me pumping the brakes this offseason. Rather than going all in, my current intentions are to draft a team or two per week until we have rock-solid confirmation the NFL season will go on as scheduled.

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Benefits of drafting a best-ball team include practice in dozens of ways, scratching that sports itch, experiencing a number of draft placements, trying out new strategies, and — everyone’s favorite — winning money. There are so many advantages to practicing, and I’m a firm believer that gamers of all skill levels need to stay fresh. It’s rewarding to track your teams based on when you drafted them, which is why I name all of my teams by date. It is easy to then look back at how one’s drafting skills evolved over the offseason.

Usually, I’ve drafted dozens of teams by now, so this year’s test result won’t have quite as long of a runway for evaluation purposes. Even still, it is, in a sense, gambling on your own abilities to draft the winning roster. For anyone missing fantasy football and betting, combine them with a best-ball draft. Essentially, it is like placing the bet on yourself! Sure, it’s not the nearly instant gratification of DFS or actual betting, but there’s a risk-reward component that comes with a tangible prize for being right.

Unlike traditional leagues with inseason roster adjustments, gamers in best-ball setups are putting all of their eggs in one’s ability to draft. And make no mistake about it, drafting is vastly different from the spring to the middle of the summer and into the waning weeks before the season kicks off.

Each decision is a mini gamble

In the Tuesday, July 14, draft, I picked seventh in a 12-team, PPR format that requires 1-2-3-1 for skill positions, plus a flex, and no kicker. Each team drafts at least one defense. Being that it is best-ball, it’s wise to take two defensive units, but since they don’t get injured like an individual player, I’m not keen on taking more than two. Quarterback and tight end, however, are positions in which I enter the draft with three-deep in mind at each position. It doesn’t take much to be left without a QB or TE if bye weeks and injuries/demotions conspire against your draft plans. But there’s another gamble to be had in skimping on depth to build elsewhere.

Running backs and receivers, of course, require owners to draft for depth. And, since there isn’t any management beyond the selection of these players, it’s even more important to blend upside with proven playmakers than in conventional leagues.

Since running back is especially thin this year, I made sure to grab one elite player at No. 7 (Derrick Henry) and then entered Round 2 with an open mind. This live draft had two absent owners, so autopicks were in play, and the AI did a good job of balancing both teams. I’m actually a little ticked that it sniped me on a few players. Anyway, you have to roll with the punches, just like in a regular draft. I then found myself looking at either Austin Ekeler or several other running backs with major questions (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette, Clyde Edwards-Helaire), so I pivoted to a position I almost never consider early and chose Travis Kelce.

In Round 3, my Henry-Kelce combination allowed for some flexibility. Since WR is so deep, I went back to entertaining the idea of a running back here. I tabbed Gurley or Edwards-Helaire. Of course, both went with two of the three picks before me. It then left me thinking it was time to snag the best receiver available, whom I valued as being Mike Evans, so that’s the route I chose. In the fourth round, running back was now a must, right? Usually, I’d have taken one, but now this team was unconventional for me, and I wanted to keep that ball rolling, so I turned to another receiver in Cooper Kupp.

Knowing that I was now thin at the thinnest position possible, my focus went to building running back depth over the next four rounds. Raheem Mostert‘s contract squabble doesn’t scare me, mainly because he lacks serious leverage. On to my roster he went in Round 5. The sixth round presented options to consider for positional versatility, which led to a “go big” mentality with the selection of Kyler Murray. He has a serious weapons cache and a coach who wants to prove his genius. Back to running back: I added James White and Ronald Jones in Rounds 7 and 8, respectively. Not great, but intriguing blends of reliability and potential.

The structure of the team after eight of the 20 rounds was 1 QB, 4 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE … back to looking at receiver. I snagged Emmanuel Sanders and Hunter Renfrow (a personal sleeper fave) in the next two rounds before taking a chance on Daniel Jones as my backup. Drew Brees was my hope here, if he had not gone four picks prior. The Murray-Jones combo gives me upside galore but questionable stability from a weekly perspective, so, in hindsight, maybe taking a passer one round earlier and waiting on Renfrow was the wiser decision. Those are examples of where gambling on my ability to draft the best players for the situation will either pay off or break my chances of winning the league.

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To round out the rest of the draft, the aforementioned blending of safety and high-reward upside picks was the focus. Adding guys like QB Drew Lock, TE Jace Sternberger, WR Josh Reynolds and RB Reggie Bonnafon isn’t for everyone, but in the event my prognostication is right on even one of them panning out, I can live with it. Lock has top-10 potential. Sternberger is this year’s Mark Andrews in my eyes. Reynolds plays in an offense that may be forced to chuck it nearly 700 times, and Bonnafon is the primary backup to Christian McCaffrey and his league-high workload over the last two years. In all likelihood, Bonnafon never cracks my starting lineup in this format. But if CMC gets hurt, I have a possible RB2 as my sixth back coming out of the draft.

The same conceptual argument could be applied to choosing rookie RB Darrynton Evans as a handcuff to Henry in Tennessee. Instead, categorize it as a mixture of safety and upside. There’s risk, since he’s a rookie during a pandemic-shortened offseason and comes from a small school, but it’s also the easiest position to learn and in an offense dedicated to pounding the ball.

Adding veterans Kenny Stills and Kyle Rudolph to round out depth isn’t sexy. Consider their situations. Houston is counting on a mixture of underwhelming and injury-prone veterans to learn the offense on the fly and build chemistry with Deshaun Watson. Stills has both of those elements already down. And it’s tough to see the NFL disciplining him for being arrested while protesting a social cause. Rudolph gets a boost after the offensive coordinator change and loss of Stefon Diggs in the offseason. Sure, second-year tight end Irv Smith will cut into his time here and there, but in best-ball, behind Kelce, I’m only hoping for the occasional two-TD outburst or unlikely 10-catch game from a 16th-round choice.

I’ll be back next week to examine another draft and see which gambles will likely pay off once the real thing is back on the field. There’s definitely a correlation to sports betting, albeit less than in DFS, due to the timeliness of the pay-off. I’m confident anyone who hasn’t tried best-ball will enjoy it.

Get in on the action and draft your own! My preferred league platforms for these drafts are RTSports.com and SportsHub’s “Best-Ball 10s” services. Neither company sponsored this article … I just like what they do in the space. Check ’em out, or look around the web to find competitors.

The argument for drafting Saquon Barkley over Christian McCaffrey

Is Christian McCaffrey a must-draft with the No. 1 pick? Saquon Barkley offers an alternative.

Is Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey really a must-draft with the No. 1 pick? New York Giants star runner Saquon Barkley offers an alternative.

There are a few reasons to consider taking Barkley over the consensus No. 1 pick in 2020 fantasy football drafts. While the margin between these two is so narrow that a coin flip is a reasonable way to decide, Barkley is my preference for a number of reasons. The most important factor is getting ahead of a potential crippling injury, rather than being forced to react to one.

The system

We know new Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has proven his system can create a powerhouse running game AND feed backs through the air. Look no farther back in time than the 2018 season to find Dallas Cowboys bell cow Ezekiel Elliott corralling 77 receptions. McCaffrey has topped 100 each of the past two seasons, which largely fuels his value. No one is likely to argue Barkley is a better receiver, but it’s not like the gap is so wide in CMC’s favor.

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Joe Brady is the new playcaller for the Panthers, but he hasn’t called a since down in the NFL, and his collegiate system was lethal, but only for one season. The runway of data with which to work is basically as long as the plane itself. Brady, 30, learned under Sean Payton for a couple of years in New Orleans as an assistant. He now has to deploy an NFL-ready offense during a pandemic. Color me skeptical.

McCaffrey, for his part, must put that Stanford education to good use and learn a new system — as does Barkley — but the major difference is Carolina’s hasn’t been tried and proven in the NFL yet. It’s safe to give Barkley the upper hand in this scenario thanks to Garrett’s experience as a coach. Plus, we have no way of knowing how Brady will call plays during the heat of the moment. It’s one thing to be great at designing concepts … a totally different skill set is required for understanding when to utilize them.

Utilization

Since involvement is directly tied to the system itself, consider these first two segments as going hand in hand.

At LSU, Brady’s calls led to the Tigers’ top back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, catching 55 passes in 2019. The system does involve the back in the aerial game, and it’s going to be emphasized in Carolina with an elite receiver in McCaffrey catching passes from the overly cautious Teddy Bridgewater.

As mentioned, Elliott caught 77 balls in ’18 before his 54-catch showing in 2019. Under Garrett, Dallas saw DeMarco Murray catch 53 and 57 passes in 2013 and ’14, respectively. His successor, a broken down Darren McFadden, snagged 40 of his own in 2015. Dating back to Garrett’s days as the offensive coordinator in Dallas, his lead backs averaged more than 40 receptions a year. None of those exceptions were Barkley. Garrett enjoys the passing game, but he sets it up with the run.

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Even though Garrett wasn’t the weekly playcaller in every season as the leader of the Cowboys, he put his stamp on the game plans and dictated some degree of the offensive direction. In seven of Garrett’s 10 full seasons as Dallas’ head coach, his primary running back topped 1,000 yards. The exceptions were in years in which said ball carrier didn’t play more than 13 games but was on pace.

No running back has touched the ball as much as McCaffrey in the last two years. Zeke checks in as a close second. CMC’s 2018 breakout year resulted in 219 carries and 107 receptions, for a grand total of 326 utilizations. Last year, he added nine receptions to the previous career high and toted the rock a hearty 287 times, or 403 combined handles. Any time we get into that 400 range for touches, the following season typically ends in disaster from a fantasy perspective. Sure, we’ve witnessed exceptions. Also, did he max out? Can anyone realistically expect McCaffrey will see a bigger workload, even if he’s healthy and productive? That’s not to say he couldn’t enjoy another elite season with a similar dosage, but it’s more probable than not we witnessed his career year.

Barkley, however, has one fewer year of being in the league, and he missed action in 2019 with an ankle sprain. This ties us into the next segment: Durability.

Over-utilization?

Did the 2019 going-nowhere Panthers’ coaching staff set up McCaffrey for a downturn in 2020 by using him too much? Maybe. He’s a sturdily built runner who doesn’t take too many huge shots and is quick to dip out of harm’s way, when possible. Unfortunately, soft-tissue injuries don’t require physical contact. His style of play doesn’t suggest his 403 touches are like that of past workhorses we’ve see (think someone like Larry Johnson who was hammered almost every time he touched the ball). Buuuuuuuut … Four. Hundred. Three. Touches. That’s so hard to ignore in good conscience.

History is overwhelmingly working against McCaffrey. Here’s a look at the follow-up years to recent seasons in which a running back shouldered massive workloads. (Ricky Williams was omitted due to his 2004 retirement. Le’Veon Bell sat out the year following his 2017 season with 406 touches. Tiki Barber was excluded for already being age 30 in 2005. All other qualifying players since 1993 were included.)

Two of 16 improved fantasy points per game
Average per-game regression of 32.9 percent in fantasy production on a per-game basis
10 of 16 fumbled more frequently
10 of 15 qualified scored TDs less frequently
13 of 16 saw average yards per touch decrease

A handful of backs entered their 400-touch season coming off of a previous campaign with such a workload. There’s no modern comparable since LaDainian Tomlinson’s 2002-03 examples. The NFL has changed in a well-documented manner when it comes to sharing backfield chores and not driving a single running back into the ground as often. Of the five backs with consecutive 400-touch efforts, Curtis Martin was the only one to improve the year after the most recent 400-handle season, and the average regression was 25.4 percent of per-game fantasy football points generated.

Say we apply that 33 percent composite regression to McCaffrey from last year’s numbers … we’re still looking at the No. 3 back. But what doesn’t it look like if he misses half of the year or more? His bye week isn’t until Week 13, which could leave him worn down during a crucial phase of the season, and what happens if you’re fighting for the final playoff spot and your best guy is out the week before the postseason begins? He may be fresh for the playoffs, provided you get that opportunity. Barkley’s bye is Week 11 — yet another minuscule advantage.

After we’ve seen McCaffrey hold up nicely for three years vs. Barkley miss time in only his second campaign, it’s understandable to give the Panthers star a break on the excessive touches when compared to others after hitting that dreaded 400 mark. Conversely, Saquon may never miss another game due to injury, so any objective view of this could consider it a wash. Gamers specifically looking for an area of separation between the two can point to less wear on Barkley’s tires, but it’s a picky take any which way one slices it. That is, unless, you’re banking on the ugly history of extensive workload repeating itself once again. In that case, it’s another, albeit abstract, feather in Saquon’s helmet.

Supporting cast

The ultimate team sport is quite obviously on display when it comes to the running back position. Factors like quarterback competency, offensive line prowess, receiving talent and depth, defensive reliability … all key elements in factoring a player’s chances of shining in fantasy. Running backs are so dependent upon whether their line can open holes, if the passing game can keep defenders out of the box, and just how many opportunities are granted in relation to the scoreboard.

Typically, teams will abandon the ground game if the offense is in a serious deficit. However, that factor isn’t as much of a concern for backs like Barkley and McCaffrey as pass-catching phenoms. Fantasy footballers don’t career if their points come in garbage time, and 83 of McCaffrey’s 116 grabs last year were when playing from behind. He was almost evenly productive rushing when playing with a lead as from in a hole.

Barkley, unsurprisingly, also caught more passes while his team was behind on the scoreboard during his first two pro seasons. He wasn’t as productive rushing when behind last year; however, the Penn State star was just fine in 2018 when trailing.

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Two-way backs are mostly immune to the scoreboard. They are not inoculated against terrible quarterback play or inept defenses. The Giants deserve the check mark for being a better team defense than Carolina, a Panthers team that will return only two defensive starters from 2019, most notably losing linebacker Luke Kuechly to retirement. That said, the Giants aren’t the ’85 Chicago Bears, so how much worse will Carolina’s unit be? Another marginal separation between the two.

Between these two, quarterback play is mostly a moot point, but in different ways. Daniel Jones starts from the onset in Year 2, and the 2019 rookie season prepared him well. Injuries are a slight worry, but the same can be said for Bridgewater in Carolina. Jones is more likely to “grip it and rip it,” whereas Bridgewater’s game is built on methodical, safe decision-making. The latter favors the offense staying on the field longer. Jones has far more upside to take his offense to a whole different level and keep extra defenders out of Barkley’s grill.

Offensive line play skews toward Barkley’s side, but Carolina made strides in the offseason, trading for veteran left tackle Russell Okung and bolstering the depth incrementally. New York’s line added first-round right tackle Andrew Thomas, and picks in Rounds 3 and 5 were spent on depth. Blocking tight end Levine Toilolo’s addition is worth noting, too. The left side of this group is where the bread is buttered

Verdict

It mostly comes down to what you’re worried about … if you feel McCaffrey is the safer pick and have no significant concerns about his durability, feel free to go that route. It is probably going to pay off with a top-three result.

For my money, at a pick and for a position where every minor advantage is amplified, Barkley is more explosive and comes with less to worry about going wrong. His ankle sprain last year cost him only three games, when the original window suggested nearly two months, and he shouldn’t be labeled injury-prone after one significant incident. He also survived a quarterback change that led to a rookie starting, getting hurt, then returning. Staying ahead of the injury curve is where gamers want to be, and history suggests we’re looking at a possible letdown from CMC. In all likelihood, he has nowhere else to go but down.

This isn’t necessarily a wholehearted endorsement of choosing Barkley over McCaffrey as much as advocating fantasy football owners to think in a less reactive fashion. There is another option, and it’s entirely possible that path will lead to greater fantasy riches.

The folly of drafting team defenses

The trouble with picking a team defense based on last year.

There has been a movement in fantasy football to drop team defenses from starting requirements, but the mass majority of leagues still require them. Defenses yield the sense that you own “an entire team” and that you are not just picking a collection of disparate and unrelated players for a statistical game of probability (umm… anyway).

The problem with team defenses is that they are far more challenging to predict. On offense, the best players are given the most chances to succeed. Defenses can only react to whatever the opposing offense does and they will intentionally try to steer clear of the strength of a defense. The best running back gets the most carries. The best cornerback may never see a pass his way.

There is a myriad of different scoring systems used with team defenses, but most just consider sacks, turnover recoveries, safeties, and touchdowns. That’s what the below rankings are based on. Other measurements are sometimes used – points allowed, yardage allowed, return yardage, etc.. But mostly – just sacks, turnovers, safeties and touchdowns.

Nothing has a bigger impact on a fantasy draft than what just happened the previous year. Here are the current Average Draft Positions for team defenses and where each ranked at the end of 2019. Green cells show a finish in the Top 6 as an advantage, No. 7 to No. 12 are white – worth starting but not as advantageous, and then the red is No. 13 and beyond – no advantage.

The Bears were #3 in 2018, so people expect them to return. The Bills also seem to have a better defense than their fantasy points usually support. But overall, the top six defenses of 2019 are very well represented in 2020 drafts and they were the only defenses that gave a fantasy team any advantage last year.

So, taking that early defense looks good and feels good, right? I know – I’ve done it plenty of times. And it rarely pays off, amigo. Here are the actual results from the last five years, sorted on the 2018 season so you can see how well those top defenses repeated last year.

Ouch.

Take a look through the last five years. That’s all true in any year of the NFL – defenses are just very hard to call correctly in fantasy football. They are a very complex group of players reacting to a different offense every week.

Take a defense. Take two if you want. But spending an extra early pick rarely pays off and watching the waiver wire closely for the first month of the season is a better way of determining which team defenses are stepping up this year, at least more accurately than expecting 2019 to repeat.

Recapping FSGA fantasy football experts draft

Explaining the rationale behind some of my picks in the industry championship league.

Haters gonna hate.

Two things should be abundantly clear to every fantasy sports professional: You’re wrong almost as much you’re right in reality, and you’re wrong all of the time in the eyes of social media pundits. It’s fine. Having thick skin is a prerequisite for survival in this industry. A long-running rule of thumb is that being right 60 percent of the time is considered good. In other words, we’re in the same boat as meteorologists.

While being wrong roughly four out of 10 times isn’t ideal, it also illustrates the disparity in accuracy from the general public to people doing prognostication for a living. That’s not a brag but a fact of life in this business. That’s also not to say brilliant fantasy minds and competitors don’t exist outside of the sphere of people fortunate enough to do this for a living. But it’s super common to hear — especially when drafting in the middle of June — how wrong our picks are and what we should have done instead. Par for the course … Yet, every so often, someone’s critiques open our eyes to reevaluating a situation — or at least they should if we’re being open-minded.

That’s a long-winded way of saying, “Keep the hate coming!” I won’t pretend to speak for everyone, but it’s motivating, since millions of people would happily trade in their day jobs for mine, and I’m never going to let myself lose sight of it.

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Where does that miniature rant come from? The feedback to my Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) draft results.

Monday, June 22, witnessed 14 of the industry’s most prominent companies represented in an online draft. We normally congregate in person. I’ve been in this league for roughly a decade now, and one of the first things I learned was the need to take calculated risks at a level unprecedented in any other professional draft. In addition to this being a 14-teamer, comprised by some of the brightest minds in fantasy, the loser goes home. This year, the bottom three teams get the boot.

In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I expect to break out and then fail miserably instead of finishing in the middle of the pack with an uninspired effort.

In 2019, I hated my draft and was roundly panned for it. I had no business being in the playoffs if we were grading on an immediate post-draft reaction. That team finished as the second-highest scorer and landed in second place, earning a first-round bye week. While it was bounced in the second round after a flat showing, that lineup scored the most points of all teams during the bye and would have beaten all teams over the rest of the playoffs. Again, that’s also not a brag. It’s an illustration that the season is so much more than the aesthetics of a draft result in June. Or July. Or August and September.

It’s easy (and fun) to get caught up in the immediate reactionary takes about a roster. However, luck avoiding devastating injuries, astute inseason waiver manipulation (no trading in this league), and — arguably most important of all — optimal lineup decisions matter so much more. Sometimes we all draft a team that is so dang good we get to skate through the regular season, but anyone who has played this game long enough knows how rare that tends to be when playing against 13 other professionals.

May team out of the eighth spot:

Overall	Pick	Player	Team	Pos
8	1.8	Derrick Henry	TEN	RB
21	2.7	Devin Singletary	BUF	RB
36	3.8	Raheem Mostert	SFO	RB
49	4.7	D.K. Metcalf	SEA	WR
64	5.8	Diontae Johnson	PIT	WR
77	6.7	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB
92	7.8	Rob Gronkowski	TAM	TE
105	8.7	Jamison Crowder	NYJ	WR
120	9.8	Zack Moss	BUF	RB
133	10.7	Hunter Renfrow	LV	WR
148	11.8	Jace Sternberger	GNB	TE
161	12.7	Chris Thompson	JAC	RB
176	13.8	Drew Lock	DEN	QB
189	14.7	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	WR
204	15.8	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TAM	Def/ST
217	16.7	Ka’imi Fairbairn	HOU	K

I’ll address the controversial picks rather than going line-item for 16 rounds worth of selections.

Devin Singletary drew a bunch of criticism for his lack of scoring prowess, Josh Allen’s role around the end zone, and the drafting of running back Zack Moss. I handcuffed Moss to Singletary to be safe, even though I really don’t like the idea of rookies in 2020 due to the abbreviated offseason. At least this is the one position where the transition may not be as daunting. If Allen is supposed to become a better quarterback in Year 3, coinciding with the addition of Stefon Diggs, Singletary stands to benefit. If the Bills are expected to be the favorite in the AFC East, the second-year back is going to be an integral part of it. I’ll take may chances reaching slightly that he’s closer to a strong RB2 in PPR than not. I wasn’t keen on a receiver, and none of the other RBs made more sense from an upside perspective.
Some criticism was levied for the D.K. Metcalf selection, and while I can see merit in the concerns, this, in part,, is the result of going three straight running backs to open the draft. I felt strongly enough in Raheem Mostert being a weekly lineup fixture as a flex, meaning wideouts could be thinner and less important. We saw elite-level flashes from Metcalf last year, and I’m confident he’s the real deal. I briefly considered Adam Thielen, but his lack of talent around him leaves me nervous, and his best play is behind him. Keenan Allen may look more respectable as a WR1 than Metcalf in a PPR, yet I have no confidence in the LA quarterback situation delivering weekly results. I then took a gamble that one of Robert Woods, D.J. Chark, Terry McLaurin or T.Y Hilton would be available in Round 5. I was wrong, which led me to the next (and most) controversial pick:
Diontae Johnson has soared up draft boards in recent weeks. While some gamers may not be comfortable with him as either a WR2 or as a fifth-round choice, I’m perfectly fine with both in a 14-teamer. I was determined to not miss out. Johnson will outscore JuJu Smith-Schuster and is going to be the No. 1 receiver in Pittsburgh. Not only that, he’ll emerge as a leading candidate for the top fantasy breakout player in 2020. Had I landed one of those aforementioned receivers, I then would have aimed for Johnson in Round 6. I reached for Chris Godwin last year and was rewarded. I don’t mind reaching for a guy I strongly feel will finish in the top 25 at his position.
The selection of Rob Gronkowski was questioned as being too early by many of the people providing feedback. I truly get the risk factor in drafting him, but there’s also considerable upside. I wrote for this very site that Gronk has bust factor written all over him, and much of it is due to injury history. Here’s to hoping the year away helped get his body right. It’s hard to ignore the chemistry with Tom Brady when looking around a talent-laden Tampa offense. We objectively have no idea if TB12 has any connection with Mike Evans and Godwin, regardless of how talented those guys are in their own right. The tight ends who immediately came off the board in the next round or so following my Gronk choice: Hayden Hurst, Tyler Higbee and Jared Cook. Those three guys are not less risky than the goofball I drafted. The final thought: I drafted Green Bay’s Jace Sternberger as Gronk’s backup, and the young tight end is another one of my favorite sleeper targets.
Chris Thompson is the only pick I’m not all that crazy about. He’s a boo-boo away from IR at all times, and the Jaguars have plenty of weapons around him to lessen the chance the former Washington Redskins pass-catching back is heavily involved. He is reunited with Jay Gruden, and there’s zero chance the coaching staff wants Leonard Fournette catching 76 passes again. The idea here is hopefully I don’t have to use Thompson, but if I do, I am comfortable with the situation.

Fantasy football’s most interesting PPR specialists

Look at these players for cheap help in PPR scoring formats.

With the popularity of point-per-reception leagues, fantasy footballers find themselves with different strategic decisions to ponder before draft day.

One of the most common scenarios is not necessarily a strategic move but a situational problem every gamer eventually will encounter: Not every player you will covet is ideal for PPR scoring, of course, so it forces gamers to feel like they need to chase receptions elsewhere, almost as some players do with roto scoring in baseball.

This scenario tends to be most commonly found at the running back position. Derrick Henry and Marlon Mack immediately come to mind as the types whose selection compels investment in reception-friendly counterparts. This also happens at wide receiver, where low-volume players tend to make fantasy owners look for make-up points elsewhere.

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Naturally, gamers will gravitate toward reception hogs. Michael Thomas saw more than 34 percent of New Orleans’ total targets in 2019 — the largest share of any wideout. There’s only one of him to go around, so we’ll focus on players who will come cheaper than the Thomases of the world. Everyone knows about slot receivers in New England’s system, for example. Not everyone can draft a 150-target asset, leading some gamers to look to running back for help.

Running backs

Identifying which teams utilize their running backs the most in the passing game is a fine place to start. In 2019, the top target shares at the position belonged to:

1) Los Angeles Chargers (31.7 percent)
2T) New Orleans Saints (28.6 percent)
2T) Minnesota Vikings (28.6 percent)*
4) New England Patriots (28.3 percent)
5) Chicago Bears (26.0 percent)

*The only team to leave the top five from last year was the New York Giants, falling from fourth in 2018 to 25th in 2019, in part due to losing Saquon Barkley for several games.

Of the teams that shuffled around a little last year inside of the top five, the Chargers made a change at offensive coordinator during the year, and Minnesota made one after the 2019 season. Expect little change in philosophy. Bill Lazor replaces Mark Helfrich as offensive coordinator in Chicago, which is more or less a game-planning helper role to head coach/play-caller Matt Nagy. Lazor’s 2017-18 run as Cincinnati’s OC resulted in a pair of midrange finishes for target share to RBs.

One thing to look for is an offense with suspect receivers, making the incorporation of running backs into the aerial game a must. This was quite apparent last year when examining the order of the next 10 teams.

6) Carolina Panthers (25.6 percent)*
7) Green Bay Packers (24.5 percent)
8) Las Vegas Raiders (23.8 percent)
9) Denver Broncos (23.3 percent)*
10) Jacksonville Jaguars (22.9 percent)*
11) Pittsburgh Steelers (22.7 percent)
12) Washington Redskins (22.4 percent)*
13) Cleveland Browns (22.3 percent)*
14) San Francisco 49ers (22.1 percent)
15) New York Jets (21.7 percent)

*denotes change in offensive system

Carolina has the best pass-catching back in the business, so a change to Joe Brady — the architect of last year’s most prolific offense in college football — shouldn’t interfere with Christian McCaffrey’s dominance.
Denver will go with Pat Shurmur as the offensive coordinator, and just two years ago his system generated a top-five target share.
Jacksonville will roll with Jay Gruden, whose offense has produced encouraging results that have been dampened by injuries to his primary pass-catching running back (who now happens to be a Jaguar).
Washington’s offense will be run by Scott Turner, and it’s pretty obvious what went on with McCaffrey in Carolina’s passing game during his limited stint calling plays.
The Browns will run a West Coast design that helped generate the second-highest share (tied) of targets for backs in Minnesota last year, which figures to have similar effects given the talent in the Cleveland backfield.

The combination of necessity, system design, and personnel talent almost exclusively control what manufactures a running back-heavy share of receiving work. The following running backs should help owners up their PPR game.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns: Supremely talented as receiver, Hunt enters an offense that offered a wealth of receiving work out of the backfield in Minnesota last year. The Vikings sent 75 passes to the team’s top pair of running backs. Alexander Mattison, Minnesota’s No. 2, is not even in the same galaxy as a receiver in comparison to Hunt. There are a lot of weapons in this offense; Hunt may fall victim to losing targets because of certain matchups and No. 1 back Nick Chubb some weeks, but there’s plenty to like for PPR purposes. And a bonus is if Chubb were to get hurt, Hunt is a top-five fantasy back in an instant.

Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears: Only two backs had more targets come their way in 2019. The overall passing attack in Chicago hasn’t improved over the offseason, so look for more Cohen out of the backfield. Only Reggie Bush in 2007 caught more passes for fewer yards per reception than Cohen’s 5.77 last year. Drops plagued him, as well, but Cohen is working on improving, and the coaching staff will look to deploy him in more creative ways. Utilize this to your advantage.

James White, New England Patriots: No Tom Brady may scare off some gamers who feel White’s prowess was elevated by the methodical approach of TB12. The expected move to Jarrett Stidham actually could have a similar — and possibly increased — effect, especially since the receiving corps isn’t particularly skillful. White could better his 95 targets from a year ago.

Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles: Many casual gamers won’t even recognize the name. Scott turned it on down the stretch in 2019, mostly due to necessity, but the coaching staff took notice and will deploy him often in 2020. Scott faces competition for receiving work from Miles Sanders, however, so expectations for a monster effort must remain in check.

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Chris Thompson, Jacksonville Jaguars: Thompson’s biggest enemy always has been staying on the field, and it remains a priority concern for gaming purposes. That said, his chief advocate has been Gruden, Jacksonville’s incoming OC. Leonard Fournette caught 76 of his 100 targets (4th most) in 2019, and that is bound to regress — the passing game will be more balanced as wideouts mature, and no one on this coaching staff’s ideal scenario should be to have their bruising back see 100 receiving looks again.

Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions: D’Andre Swift’s second-round selection could relegate Johnson to a change-up role, which most likely would focus on utilizing his receiving skills. The system has been kind to producing work for sure-handed RBs throughout the years, but there is some concern this could turn into a hot-hand scenario in favor of the versatile Swift. And Johnson’s injury history is impossible to ignore.

Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins traded for the explosive former 49er in the 2020 NFL Draft, and he’ll pair with a classic two-downer in Jordan Howard. While the former Bear and Eagle isn’t a poor pass-catching back, Miami is better off utilizing his talents on the ground and giving Breida more work in the aerial department. Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s primary skill throughout the years has been the keen sense of molding his system around the team’s personnel, and it would be awfully surprising to see Breida get neglected in the passing attack.

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts: Hines went from 81 targets in 2018 to only 58 last year, which still was good for 16th among running backs. The move to Philip Rivers will help get Hines back on track, as the veteran quarterback’s arm isn’t what it used to be, and he’s more than comfortable throwing to RBs. There is concern here after Indy drafted versatile running back Jonathan Taylor, however. A young and mostly unproven cast of receiving weapons should help solidify Hines’ role in the offense.

Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ke’Shawn Vaughn was drafted and profiles as a two-down back, for the most part. The addition of Tom Brady — a checkdown master — bodes well for Jones to see increased action in the aerial game. The unretirement of Rob Gronkowski, in cooperation with two star receivers, suggests the Bucs will keep defenses guessing all day. Much like with Hunt, Jones may find himself lost in a sea of talent some weeks.

Jalen Richard, Las Vegas Raiders: This one is a little on the cloudy side. The Raiders drafted RB/WR Lynn Bowden Jr. as a do-all player, and veteran Devontae Booker was signed to bolster the depth after rusher DeAndre Washington and his 41 targets didn’t return. Richard knows the system and saw two more looks than Washington in 2019. Oakland’s receiving corps improved through the draft, too, and one has to think significant gains are in store for second-year receiver Hunter Renfrow. At any rate, Richard is worthy of attention in desperate scenarios.

Receivers and tight ends

Not every PPR league draft allows gamers to build the proper roster of explosive talent and reception-boosting balance. Therefore, all have to be mindful of where we can build adequate depth or fringe starting value catered to the scoring system. The following receivers will give you a chance to improve your point-earning potential without breaking the bank.

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets: The WR1 in New York’s offense caught 78 of his 122 targets. The utilization volume ranked as the 16th-highest figure in 2019, and he finished as a No. 2 in PPR without going over 833 yard and six touchdowns. Volume absolutely matters, and the price tag for a situation like this only increases the allure of Crowder. Despite adding two new receivers this offseason, Crowder’s role remains unchanged, and his percentage of the team’s passing work (40 percent of all 2019 NYJ WR looks), should buoy his value relative to his mostly pedestrian counting stats.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers: One of my favorite sleeper targets for 2020, the second-year wideout saw 92 targets (37th among WRs) in 2019 with a hodgepodge of quarterbacks. He offers many of the same skills that helped Antonio Brown ascend to greatness in a similar version of this offense, and the Steelers absolutely need someone to help take the pressure off of JuJu Smith-Schuster. Getting Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) back healthy is a welcomed sight, as well, and the overall maturation for Johnson in Year 2 cannot be ignored.

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders: Another second-year sleeper target, Renfrow is poised to ascend in an offense starving for reliable receivers. Henry Ruggs was drafted in Round 1 this year, and while he’s a phenomenal talent, the rookie’s game is built around speed and not necessarily possession traits. In 13 games last year, he saved the best for last, returning from a punctured lung (yikes!) to author consecutive 100-yard games and score a TD in each contest. The Clemson product is heady and dedicated — two aspects that will serve him well during this pandemic-affected offseason.

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Kelvin Harmon, Washington Redskins: Harmon’s spot on this list takes a leap of faith that we’ll see meaningful maturation from his quarterback, Dwayne Haskins, as well as from the second-year receiver himself. He’s a big-bodied target with a chain-moving skill set, and the Redskins need to incorporate someone other than Terry McLaurin into their regular designs. Washington’s talent pool is suspect, and it appears Harmon will be given every opportunity to seize the No. 2 role. McLaurin has praised Harmon this offseason, and Haskins has worked with the North Carolina State product to further develop chemistry.

Danny Amendola, Detroit Lions: The veteran journeyman’s inclusion should be viewed through the prism of late-round desperation. He was all over the map in terms of utilization while Matthew Stafford was healthy a year ago, but a closer look reveals after No. 9 went down, Amendola actually saw slightly fewer targets per game. This also coincided with injuries to T.J. Hockenson, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. This offenses has a defined role for slot receivers, and as long as the well-aged Amendola stays healthy, he’s a sneaky play for potential flex stats.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins: A year after being more or less a ghost, Gesicki emerged as the seventh-most targeted tight end in football in 2019. He developed chemistry, especially down the stretch run, with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Granted, we have no idea when we’ll see Tua Tagovailoa under center, but inexperienced quarterbacks tend to overly rely on tight ends. Gesicki was lauded coming out of Penn State in 2018 and should dramatic improvement as sophomore. Despite a new system, he’s an intriguing risk-reward decision for owners trying to make up some ground. It’s not like Miami added enough talent at wide receiver to imply Gesicki is poised to regress due to competition for touches, so trust in that aspect to help keep his role intact or better.

Tyler Eifert, Jacksonville Jaguars: Injuries are always a worry when considering Eifert for a fantasy roster. The silver lining is found in him staying on the field for 16 games last year. Now he is reunited with a former coach in Jags’ new offensive coordinator, and the system has been known to breed quality results for fantasy football purposes. As QB Gardner Minshew continues to find his way, look for more targets to head to the position, especially now that he has a tight end with serious receiving chops. Eifert isn’t likely to be an every-week starter, but finding a morsel of value at the tail end of a draft can be a viable consolation for avoiding the position early.

Blake Jarwin, Dallas Cowboys: This one really could go either way, and much of Jarwin’s role can be directly tied to what we expect from rookie receiver CeeDee Lamb. The lack of an organized, on-field offseason is bound to hurt the rookie’s progression, whereas Jarwin enters his second year in this offense. The Cowboys threw 83 passes at Jason Witten a year ago, and only nine other tight ends saw more looks in 2019. There should be some skepticism over Jarwin’s readiness to ascend, but what late-round upside buy doesn’t come with notable risk?

Fantasy football draft prep: 12 common mistakes to avoid

A dozen rules fantasy footballers must follow for consistent success.

Our annual “draft prep” series mostly caters to novice players, but every once in a while a veteran player requires a refresher on basics we may take for granted.

These rules are in no particular order, and they apply to all levels of experience among fantasy owners. Just as important as the “what you should do” to create a winner in fantasy drafting, avoiding simple pitfalls is a must.

1) Living in the past: Assuming successes and failures from last year automatically will carry over to this year’s results is a quick trip to Loserville. Each year is brand new and requires a reset of the old memory bank.

2) Stay sober: While it may seem silly, don’t let one draft of hard boozing affect an entire season of fantasy football. Party it up after the draft and celebrate your soon-to-be championship roster.

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3) No one likes a homer: Well, except for that Homer. Heavily drafting players from your favorite team tends to lead to an entire season of hangover-filled mornings. This also includes taking a specific player over a better option just because that player is on your favorite team. Be objective.

4) Draft by the rules: Not knowing your league’s scoring structure, lineup composition, and/or bylaws generally results in utter failure. At a minimum, it translates into lost points.

5) Stretch it out: Flexibility in fantasy drafts is essential. Gamers with a rigid strategy miss out on key value due to their inability to zig when others are zagging.

6) No F.O.M.O.: All too often owners will see or sense a miniature run at a position and overreact out of the fear of missing out. Always having a sound backup plan alleviates concern in this area.

7) Mocking mock drafters: “I don’t need preparation!” declares the eventual last-place owner on draft day. Everyone needs practice. Look back at all of the things in life that required some repetitions before you improved. Don’t take my word for it … ask your spouse.

8) Bye week blues: This cuts both ways — getting caught up in not paying attention to bye weeks and outright passing on talent because it would create multiple players at the position on bye. Later in the year, bye weeks are easier — not harder — to overcome due to months of roster manipulation.

9) Leaving money on the table: Specifically for those who participate in auctions, leaving any amount of money on the table is inexcusable. Spend it all, even if you have to pay up at the end of the auction on an inconsequential player.

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10) Peer pressure: Let’s face it, even seasoned veterans of fantasy don’t enjoy being ridiculed by 11 mates after making a questionable pick. There’s a major difference between being laughed at for taking a kicker in Round 1 and reaching a round or two for a sleeper at a skilled position.

11) ADP obsession: Time after time, owners get hung up on what the average draft placement suggests. It is merely a guideline, and anytime a service offering ADP compiles the data, it is impossible to weed out all variations and nuance. Use it for nothing more than a ballpark idea of when positional trends typically begin.

12) Drafting to trade: For some unknown reason, every year I have gamers asking me about which players to target solely for trading purposes. Drafting players for a potential trade bargaining piece down the line is unwise. Way too much can (and usually does) go wrong in this scenario.