Breaking down Saturday’s Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugas welterweight championship fight, with boxing odds, picks and predictions.
In a WBA welterweight championship bout, Manny Pacquiao and Yordenis Ugas face each other Saturday at T-Mobile Arena. The card is scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. ET and will be televised on Pay-Per-View. Below, we break down the Pacquiao vs. Ugas odds and lines, with boxing picks and predictions.
Originally “Pac Man” was expected to face Errol Spence Jr. in the main event, but the latter was forced to withdraw due to an eye injury.
Pacquiao will be making his first appearance in the ring since July 20, 2019, when he pushed past Keith Thurman in a split decision to become the oldest WBA welterweight champion in history. Due to a long layoff, he was declared champion in recess, and Ugas was promoted to the top spot.
Ugas has picked up three straight victories since a split-decision loss to Shawn Porter March 9, 2019. His last appearance was a split-decision win over Abel Ramos Sept. 6, claiming the vacant WBA belt.
Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugas: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; accessĀ USA TODAY Sportsā betting oddsĀ for a full list.Ā Lines last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.
- Manny Pacquiao -370 (bet $370 to win $100) | Yordenis Ugas +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Draw +1500
- Total rounds: 10.5 (Over: -280 | Under: +190)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes: -190 | No: +135
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Pacquiao is a heavy favorite with an implied win probability of 78.72%. A $100 bet on the favorite would return a profit of just $27.03 with a victory as a chalk wager.
The fight to go Over 10.5 rounds and to go the distance are also heavy favorites.
Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugas: Tale of the tape
Manny Pacquiao (-320 on the 3-way line)
Record: 62-7-2 (39 KOs)
Height: 5-foot-5 1/2
Reach: 67 inches
Stance: Southpaw
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Yordenis Ugas (+250)
Record: 26-4-0 (12 KOs)
Height:Ā 5-foot-9
Reach: 69 inches
Stance:Ā Orthodox
Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugas: Predictions and picks
The 42-year-old Pacquaio heads into this one against the 35-year-old Cuban fighter, and it is going to be an uphill battle. Ugas, who enters on short notice for the injured Spence, is younger, taller and he has a longer reach. He also has the WBA strap. But Pac Man has the experience.
We haven’t seen Pacquiao in two years, and there are some questions on whether he still has it.
The favorite Pacquiao (-370) will cost you over three times your potential return on the 2- and 3-way lines, and there is just no value there. If anything, playing UGAS (+240) is the most tempting play.
Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugas best bet
The best bet on the board is taking YES (-190): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? Ugas is a slow, methodical fighter, who will look to keep the veteran Pacquiao at a distance with his reach advantage. Whomever wins this fight, look for the Pay-Per-View crowd to get their money’s worth.
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