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In a bold move that could reshape college sports, the Pac-12 is looking to raid the Mountain West Conference for expansion, targeting Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and Fresno State.

According to reports from Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger, all four schools are planning to apply or have already applied for Pac-12 membership, seeking approval from the conference’s board.

If successful, this would bring the Pac-12 to six teams alongside holdovers Washington State and Oregon State.

The Pac-12, once a dominant force in college athletics, has been reeling after losing 10 of its 12 members to the ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12.

This realignment cycle has left Oregon State and Washington State in a precarious position, scrambling to fill schedules and maintain relevance.

However, Pac-12 Commissioner Teresa Gould is making aggressive moves, offering the targeted schools a new media rights deal that is more lucrative than their current Mountain West arrangement.

The Mountain West is fully aware of the looming departure. Commissioner Gloria Nevarez released a statement acknowledging the media reports.

Still, she emphasized that departing schools would be held accountable to the conference’s bylaws, including hefty exit fees.

“The Mountain West Conference is aware of media reports regarding the potential departure of several of our members & we will have more to say in the days ahead.

All members will be held to the Conference bylaws & policies should they elect to depart. The requirements of the scheduling agreement will apply to the Pac-12 should they admit Mountain West members.

Our Board of Directors is meeting to determine our next steps. The Mountain West has a proud 25-year history & will continue to thrive in the years ahead.”

Should the departures happen, the Mountain West will collect over $111 million in penalties. Still, it would also be forced to rebuild, likely considering teams from the FCS ranks to fill the gaps.

Schools looking to leave the Mountain West Conference will need to pay a total of $17 million in exit fees, plus an additional $43 million due to a scheduling agreement. This would result in the Mountain West receiving a combined $111 million in exit fees.

For the Mountain West, this substantial financial boost could open opportunities to pursue other Group of Five schools or even elevate some institutions from the FCS level. The conference’s next steps will become clearer over time.

Although there is a two-year transition period for moving up to the FBS level, during which teams cannot participate in postseason play, the financial incentives and the prospect of advancing to a higher level remain appealing.

 

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Boise State, the most recognizable name in the potential Pac-12 expansion, brings a storied football history, having regularly competed for national prominence in the BCS era.

Fresno State and San Diego State are powerhouses consistently competing for Mountain West titles.

Their move and Colorado State’s could give the Pac-12 desperately needed lifeline.

For the Mountain West, however, the future remains uncertain. If the four schools leave, the conference will be reduced to eight members, teetering on the edge of viability. As college football’s new era of realignment unfolds, the Mountain West and Pac-12 are at the heart of a high-stakes reshuffling that could dramatically alter the landscape of the sport once again.

Which teams are following?

As the latest wave of conference realignment heats up, speculation about which teams might be following to join the Pac-12—or be courted by other conferences—is intensifying. Here are a few potential candidates that could be targeted next, either by the Pac-12 or other leagues:

 

1. Air Force (Mountain West)

• Why they could be next: Air Force boasts a strong football tradition and national recognition, especially within service academy rivalries. Their unique brand and solid athletic program could make them an appealing candidate for the Pac-12, which still needs two more schools to reach the NCAA’s required eight for FBS conference status.

2. UNLV (Mountain West)

• Why they could be next: UNLV’s market appeal lies in its location in Las Vegas. This growing sports hub could bring significant media value. While their football program has been historically underwhelming, the city’s growing profile and a newly built Allegiant Stadium make UNLV a strong contender for future realignment moves.

3. Nevada (Mountain West)

• Why they could be next: Nevada has consistently performed well in the Mountain West and offers geographic proximity to other potential Pac-12 members like Boise State and Fresno State. The school’s solid athletics and Reno’s growing market could make it an appealing addition for a league looking to stabilize.

4. SMU (American Athletic Conference)

• Why they could be next: Although not a Mountain West team, SMU has been discussed in previous realignment talks, particularly as a potential target for the Pac-12. The Dallas-based school would provide access to the Texas market and has invested heavily in its football program to regain national relevance.

5. UTEP (Conference USA)

• Why they could be next: UTEP’s proximity to New Mexico and Texas gives them a unique geographic advantage. If Pac-12 is looking to broaden its southwestern presence, UTEP could be considered. However, it would need to improve its football profile to become more competitive.

6. Tulane (American Athletic Conference)

• Why they could be next: Another non-Mountain West school, Tulane’s recent success in football and its academic standing could make it an intriguing option for the Pac-12 or another major conference. The New Orleans-based school brings strong market appeal and a competitive football program.

 

The realignment dominoes are far from done falling. With the Pac-12 needing to reach eight schools to survive as a conference, it wouldn’t be surprising if more Mountain West teams and schools from the AAC or C-USA become critical players in the next round of movement.

 

If the Pac-12 successfully poaches Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Colorado State, the Mountain West Conference (MWC) will be left in a precarious position.

Losing four of its most prominent schools would significantly weaken the conference in terms of athletic competitiveness and media value. Here’s what could happen to the MWC as it navigates this potential upheaval:

1. Survival vs. Dissolution

• Survival: The Mountain West will likely focus on maintaining its status as a viable conference. While losing its top programs would be a significant blow, the remaining eight members—Air Force, UNLV, Nevada, Utah State, Wyoming, New Mexico, San Jose State, and Hawaii (football only)—could still form the foundation of the conference.
• Dissolution: If the exodus expands beyond the four targeted schools, the MWC could face a potential breakup, with remaining members seeking new homes in other conferences like the American Athletic Conference (AAC) or Conference USA (C-USA). However, dissolution seems less likely in the short term, as the remaining schools will aim to hold the league together to protect their interests.

2. Expansion from the FCS

• The MWC would likely evaluate adding schools from the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) to replenish its ranks. Potential candidates might include schools from the Big Sky Conference, such as Montana, Montana State, or Weber State, North Dakota,  with solid football traditions and fan bases.
• Other possible FCS schools, like North Dakota State—a perennial powerhouse—could also be on the radar if they seek to move up to the FBS level. However, this would require substantial investment and planning.

3. Realignment with Other Group of 5 Conferences

• The MWC might look to merge or form alliances with other Group of 5 leagues, like the AAC or C-USA, to stabilize its future. These conferences could seek to consolidate in the face of larger Power 5 raids, pooling resources to maintain relevance in the college football landscape.
• Such an alliance could lead to scheduling agreements, shared media deals, or even full-fledged mergers, helping to prevent the further erosion of the MWC’s value and competitiveness.

4. Media Rights Impact

• The departure of its biggest brands would likely reduce the MWC’s media rights value, especially since Boise State, Fresno State, and San Diego State are key drivers of viewership. The MWC’s current media deal with CBS and Fox, set to expire in 2026, would likely need to be renegotiated with a diminished pool of teams, resulting in a less favorable package.
• The remaining MWC teams may also explore new partnerships. However, their diminished bargaining power could result in a lower-tier TV contract than they previously enjoyed.

5. Financial Implications

• The MWC could benefit from the financial penalties associated with schools leaving, potentially collecting up to $111 million in exit and scheduling violation fees from departing members and the Pac-12. These funds could help the conference navigate the transition in the short term, but they won’t replace the long-term value lost from departing schools.
• However, the MWC would need to reinvest those funds wisely to lure new teams or enhance its remaining programs to ensure its future viability.

6. Competitive Balance

• The departure of the top programs, especially in football, would dramatically change the competitive landscape. Schools like Air Force, Utah State, and Wyoming—often overshadowed by Boise State or San Diego State—would have the opportunity to become conference frontrunners.
• However, the loss of marquee matchups and rivalries could hurt the league’s appeal, making it less attractive for recruits and fans.

7. Potential for a Rebuild

• Despite the challenges, the MWC has a chance to rebuild. The conference could reinvent itself by identifying ambitious FCS schools or leveraging relationships with other Group of 5 programs. If the remaining schools stick together and focus on maintaining competitiveness, the MWC could remain a respectable league in college sports.

Why New Mexico is not being considered:

New Mexico is not being considered for the new Pac-12 expansion for several key reasons, mostly related to athletic performance, market size, and revenue potential. Here are the main factors:

 

1. Athletic Competitiveness

 Football Performance: In conference realignment, football is typically the driving force. New Mexico’s football program has struggled in recent years and hasn’t had the level of success necessary to make it an attractive candidate for a higher-profile conference like the Pac-12.

• Unlike schools like Boise State or San Diego State, which have been regular contenders for Mountain West championships, New Mexico’s football team hasn’t had a winning season since 2016.
• Overall Athletic Profile: while competitive in some areas (such as basketball), New Mexico’s other sports programs don’t have the same national profile as those from schools targeted for Pac-12 expansion.
• The Pac-12 is looking for programs that can elevate its overall competitiveness across multiple sports, particularly in football and basketball.

2. Market Size and Appeal

• Small Media Market: New Mexico is based in Albuquerque, which is a relatively small media market compared to other schools being targeted, like San Diego State (San Diego), or Boise State (which has strong national appeal despite being in a smaller market).
•  The Pac-12 is seeking schools that bring significant TV markets or national recognition to increase the value of its media rights deals. Albuquerque’s market doesn’t offer the same kind of media boost that a larger or more recognizable program would provide.

3. Revenue Potential

• Limited TV and Sponsorship Appeal: The Pac-12 is attempting to rebuild itself after losing its top schools to other Power 5 conferences.
•  It’s looking for programs to generate strong TV viewership, attract national attention, and bring in lucrative sponsorship deals. New Mexico’s football and basketball programs don’t have the same national draw or financial potential as those of Boise State or Fresno State.
• Lack of Investment in Athletics: While New Mexico has invested in athletics, its facilities and financial commitment to sports aren’t at the level required to make a strong case for a move to the Pac-12.
•  Pac-12 expansion candidates are often evaluated based on their facilities, financial resources, and ability to elevate the overall prestige of the conference.

4. Geographic Considerations

• Less Strategic Location: New Mexico is somewhat geographically isolated compared to schools like San Diego State, which gives the Pac-12 access to Southern California, or Boise State, which expands the conference’s reach into the Pacific Northwest.
•  While New Mexico is not far from Colorado State or Arizona, it doesn’t provide the Pac-12 with a significant strategic foothold in a critical region.

5. Existing Pac-12 Targets

• The Pac-12 has set its sights on schools like Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Colorado State due to their more robust athletic profiles, larger media markets, and more significant potential for media rights deals.
• These schools are seen as better fits for what the Pac-12 needs to survive and rebuild after losing its most extensive programs. New Mexico doesn’t match up in the same way.

In summary, New Mexico’s lack of competitiveness in football, smaller media market, limited revenue potential, and less strategic location make it a less attractive candidate for the Pac-12’s expansion plans.

The conference is looking for schools that can immediately elevate its profile and financial standing, which New Mexico is not currently positioned to do.

In short, the MWC is at a crossroads. It must act swiftly to replace its departing teams or forge new partnerships to survive.

The following steps taken by its leadership will be crucial in determining whether the conference remains viable or is left vulnerable to further attrition.