49ers heavily favored over Seahawks despite Week 1 performances

The #49ers are favored by 8.5 over the Seahawks — a number they haven’t covered vs. Seattle since Jim Harbaugh’s debut in Week 1 of the 2011 season.

The 49ers left Chicago looking like a team with a ton of questions to answer. The Seahawks left their Week 1 opener a winner over the heavily-favored Broncos. Despite opposite sentiments around each team in the days after their respective season openers, sports books still like the 49ers to beat Seattle in Week 2. Tipico Sportsbook has San Francisco favored at home by 8.5 points.

This points to a couple things. First, Week 1 is always a little strange. Weird things happen with new coaches, new players, injuries and everything else that shifts over the course of an offseason. Second, both the 49ers and Seahawks had some weird circumstances in Week 1. There was a torrential downpour in Chicago, while Seattle hosted long-time starting quarterback Russell Wilson in his first game as a Denver Bronco.

So the books instead revert to what we knew about each team going into the year. The 49ers were coming off an NFC championship game appearance and hoped to do the same again this year. Seattle was going through a semi-rebuild after trading Wilson. That would indicate there’s a sizable discrepancy between the two clubs, which is why the number now sits at 8.5 points.

Beware hammering either side on this line though. There’s a not-so-crazy scenario where San Francisco blows out Chicago and Seattle gets trounced by Denver and 8.5 points looks right. On the other hand, the 49ers haven’t beaten Seattle by more than 8.5 points since Week 1 of the 2011 season when they won 33-17 at Candlestick Park. Since then they’ve won just four games against Seattle by a combined 14 points.

Signs point to the Seahawks covering the hefty spread, but it’s too easy to envision a scenario where the 49ers exact some long-awaited revenge on a Seattle club that no longer has Russell Wilson at quarterback. We’re staying away from this game.

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49ers favored big in season opener at Chicago

The 49ers are favored big vs. the Bears, but the total is what really jumps out Sunday.

The handwringing over the 49ers’ 2022 season commenced when Jimmy Garoppolo restructured his contract to return to San Francisco and planted some seeds of doubt in the club’s confidence in first-year starter Trey Lance. If there’s a hiccup coming from Lance, the betting lines don’t anticipate it coming in Week 1 when the 49ers face the Bears in Chicago. Tipico Sportsbook has the 49ers favored by 6.5 points on the road. They’re -340 on the money line as well, making them the largest Week 1 favorite.

It’s easy to see a path where the 49ers cover the 6.5 points while Lance struggles. San Francisco could wind up fielding the top defense in the NFL while featuring perhaps the league’s top pass rush. That unit has a chance to feast on a Bears offensive line that doesn’t project to be a strong point of their offense. Once we factor in their lack of top-end talent with their pass catchers it all adds up to a long day for Chicago’s offense.

That 6.5-point number is key because even a 10-3 49ers victory gets them the cover without pushing.

There’s not a ton of value in the 49ers on the money line. Bettors have to place a $340 bet to win $100. The more interesting non-spread number is the total. Tipico has the over/under set at 41.5 with the under going at -115 (bet $115 to win $100). San Francisco’s defense should be stingy Sunday, but the Bears defensive line against a shaky 49ers offensive front could make for tough sledding for Lance and Co.

We like a low-scoring 49ers win.

Picks: 49ers -6.5, under 41.5