NFC Playoff Picture: Why are the Saints ranked behind the Seahawks?

The New Orleans Saints beat the Seahawks head-to-head, and share records with the Green Bay Packers. So why are they the NFC’s third seed?

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The New Orelans Saints improved to an 11-3 record with their win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15, tying with one team they’ve already beaten (the Seattle Seahawks) and one that they haven’t (the Green Bay Packers) on top of the NFC playoff standings.

But the Saints are the third seed, not the first or second. If the playoffs started today, they would be hosting the sixth-seeded Minnesota Vikings while the Seahawks and Packers rest during their bye week. What gives?

It comes down in-conference win percentage. The Seahawks have the same record against other NFC teams as the Packers (8-2); they are both in better standing than the Saints (8-3). Normally, tiebreaking procedure for playoff seeding would go by overall record, and then head-to-head results. If it were just the Saints and Seahawks involved, the Saints would rank ahead.

But because the Packers are in the mix, that head-to-head ruling is thrown out the window. And because the Packers have earned a stronger record against NFC opponents than the Saints, they get the second seed behind Seattle. Because Green Bay is tied with the Seahawks and there is no head-to-head tiebreaker, the next step is to examine common opponents. And that’s where Seattle has an edge, having gone 4-0 against teams the Packers have a 2-2 record with.

This is why Saints fans should be pulling for the Seahawks to win the NFC West instead of the San Francisco 49ers, and why they should root for the Packers to drop another game (maybe next week, against the Vikings). If the Saints and Seahawks finish the year with identical records as the top two teams, the Saints can get the first seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

If it’s San Francisco instead, their head-to-head win over the Saints gives them that first seed. On top of that, the Packers have an easier road to claiming the first seed over the Saints, so for at least the next two weeks, Saints fans are pulling double-duty and backing up the 12’s. The Vikings could theoretically unseat the Packers on top of the NFC North and shake it all up, but that’s unlikely given Green Bay’s regular season finale with the lowly Detroit Lions.

For the curious, here’s how each of these teams looks against in-conference, plus the wild-card Vikings and 49ers. We aren’t going to worry about the NFC East winner, because the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are both terrible (and mathematically don’t matter; the best record either of them can finish with is 9-7). Overall records are in bold text:

11-3 Seattle Seahawks: 8-2 in the NFC, .800
11-3 Green Bay Packers: 8-2 in the NFC, .800
11-3 New Orleans Saints: 8-3 in the NFC, .727
10-4 Minnesota Vikings: 7-3 in the NFC, .700
11-3 San Francisco 49ers: 8-2 in the NFC, .800

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NFC Playoff Picture: How the Saints can win the first seed, homefield advantage

The San Francisco 49ers lost to the Atlanta Falcons, opening the door for the New Orleans Saints to win home-field advantage in the playoffs

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The San Francisco 49ers held the first seed for just a week before they choked, somehow losing to the Atlanta Falcons only a week after they beat the New Orleans Saints. That big mistake cost them in the NFC playoff seedings, dropping them from the first seed to the fifth.

It also opens the door a little wider for the Saints to march back to the top of the standings. Right now, the Saints are the third seed. They’re in a race for a top two seed with the 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Green Bay Packers, though the Saints are guaranteed to finish no worse than third.

So how can the Saints get that coveted first seed? Even if they win all three of their remaining games, they’ll need some help to get it.

Let’s run through it one team at a time. The Packers have two games left on their schedule, and have to lose one of them for the Saints to overtake them. They’re visiting the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions in the final two weeks, and could very well lose that Vikings game considering how well Minnesota has been playing lately.

Next up, the 49ers: they need to win both of their remaining game to stick around in the race for a top-two seed. If they lose another game, they’re guaranteed to remain a wild-card team. Their season-finale is against the Seahawks in Seattle, so that game carries all kinds of implications — unless they lose next week to the Los Angeles Rams at home, in which case it doesn’t matter at all as far as the Saints are concerned. New Orleans owns a head-to-head tiebreaker over Seattle.

And that brings us full-circle. The Seahawks play at home in each of the final two weeks, hosting the Arizona Cardinals and the 49ers. The Saints need Seattle to win both of those home games to ensure the playoffs run through New Orleans.

So, to sum it up: if the Saints are going to earn homefield advantage in the playoffs, they have to win all three of their remaining games. They also need the Packers to lose one of their two remaining games, while the Seahawks win both of their final two games (including the regular season finale against the 49ers). That’s easier said than done, but it’s very much a realistic scenario.

Now, it’s on the Saints and their fans to do what they’ve always done: put everything into winning the games left on their schedule.

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Of course it’s helpful, but do the Saints need home-field advantage in the playoffs?

The New Orleans Saints have posted a higher win percentage on the road than in the Superdome, which may prepare them well for the playoffs

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The New Orleans Saints took a big hit in the playoff standings in their Week 14 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, losing their grip on the first seed in the NFC playoff standings. They fell to third, and can’t fall further thanks to the NFC East’s collective mediocrity. If they win out, the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles can each post records as strong as 9-7. The Saints will finish the year at 10-6 at worst, but they’ll be better than that.

It would take a lot of help for the Saints to rise back to the first seed, but the second seed is attainable. Both of the two top seeds guarantee a bye during the Wild Card Round, allowing lesser teams to duke it out in hopes of advancing, But only the first seed carries home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, ensuring that the team that holds it won’t have to travel for any games before Super Bowl LIV.

Obviously it would help the Saints to hold that advantage. Some dusty narratives suggest the Saints need it, and won’t reach the Super Bowl if they have to play away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome; here are some numbers that disprove that notion.

The Saints are a better road team than home team in 2019. They’ve gone 5-1 on the road and 5-2 at home, winning their road games by an average difference of 9.8 points; at home, that point differential drops to 7.2 points per game. To put it another way, the average Saints victory at home this season has ended with a score of 27.6 to 20.4.

But on the road, the Saints are winning games with an average score of 28.4 to 18.6. Drew Brees and the Saints offense are blocking out the crowd noise, while Demario Davis and the New Orleans defense are benefiting from the relative quiet when their opponents have the ball.

This trend continues in recent history. The Saints were 7-1 on the road in 2018 but 7-3 at home, including the playoffs. You have to go all the way back to the 2017 season to find an appreciable difference, when the Saints went 8-1 at home but 4-5 on the road. And three of those losses were settled by six points or fewer, illustrating how the Saints remained competitive in hostile environments even then.

To sum it up, here are the Saints’ home and road splits over the last two years, a stretch of 31 games (including the playoffs):

Saints at home, 2018 to 2019: 12-5 (.705), average score of 29.9 to 24.8. Per-game scoring differential of 5.2.
Saints on the road, 2018 to 2019: 12-2 (.857), average score of 27.3 to 19.1. Per-game scoring differential of 8.1.

So the Saints not only have a stronger winning percentage on the road, they’re doing a better job of limiting opposing offenses while still putting up points at a rate that would rank top-five around the league. There’s no question that the Saints would prefer to host every playoff game they’re scheduled for, but it’s hardly a death sentence if they have to travel at some point. Saints coach Sean Payton and his staff are clearly up to embracing the challenge of playing — and winning — in a hostile venue; Saints fans should take the same approach.

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NFC Playoff Picture: How can the Saints win a top-two seed, bye week?

The New Orleans Saints lost to the San Francisco 49ers but remain in the NFC playoff picture with the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks

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The New Orleans Saints couldn’t seal the deal against the San Francisco 49ers, ultimately falling short in a 48-46 boat race. That loss dropped the Saints to 10-3 on the year so far and forced a tumble in the NFC playoff picture; New Orleans went into Week 14 with a tenuous hold on the first seed, but now they’ve fallen to third.

But there’s good news: the Saints aren’t likely to fall much further. Even if the Saints lose all three of their remaining games and finish with a 10-6 record, they would still rank higher than whichever team wins the NFC East (the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles can each max out with 9-7 records), guaranteeing the third seed. Here’s what the NFC playoff picture looks like right now:

San Francisco 49ers (11-2)
Green Bay Packers (10-3)
New Orleans Saints (10-3)
Dallas Cowboys (6-7)
Seattle Seahawks (10-2)
Minnesota Vikings (9-4)

So it’s really a four-team race for the three top seeds, with the Saints and 49ers joined by the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers; depending on who wins the NFC West, either the 49ers or Seahawks would fall to the fifth seed, with the rival team claiming a top-three slot.

Where do we go from here? The Seahawks are scheduled to play the Los Angeles Rams on ‘Sunday Night Football,’ but each of those other teams have already finished their Week 14 games. Here’s each team’s remaining schedule in the regular season:

New Orleans Saints (10-3)

Week 15 vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
Week 16 at Tennessee Titans (7-5)
Week 17 at Carolina Panthers (5-8)

San Francisco 49ers (11-2)

Week 15 vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
Week 16 vs. Los Angeles Rams (7-5)
Week 17 at Seattle Seahawks (10-2)

Seattle Seahawks (10-2)

Week 14 at Los Angeles Rams (7-5)
Week 15 at Carolina Panthers (5-8)
Week 16 vs. Arizona Cardinals (3-8-1)
Week 17 vs. San Francisco 49ers (11-2)

Green Bay Packers (10-3)

Week 15 vs. Chicago Bears (7-6)
Week 16 at Minnesota Vikings (9-4)
Week 17 at Detroit Lions (3-9-1)

The Saints can still finish with the first seed if they win out while the other three teams each go 2-1 down the stretch. If the Saints go 2-1 in the last three weeks and the other teams follow suit, they would own the second seed. If the Saints go 1-2 or lose out, while any of the other teams win out, New Orleans reverts to the third seed. It’s all still pretty complicated, made worse by Seattle still having a game to play on Sunday.

How does this translate for Saints fans? The mission is the same as it’s ever been: root for the Saints to win, week in and week out, no matter the odds or what it means down the line.

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Saints can claim top NFC playoff seed after Monday Night Football

The Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings can impact the NFC playoff picture on Monday Night Football, maybe helping the New Orleans Saints

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The Baltimore Ravens stunned the San Francisco 49ers during Sunday’s win, opening the door for the New Orleans Saints to lay claim to the top NFC playoff seed — if they can get a little help on Monday Night Football. Now that the 49ers are 10-2 (tying New Orleans), the surging Seattle Seahawks can match their record with a win over the Minnesota Vikings in prime-time. The Seahawks handed San Francisco their first loss earlier this season, giving Seattle a tie-breaker should they improve to 10-2.

If that happens, a ripple effect will flood throughout the NFC playoff picture. The Seahawks would jump ahead of the 49ers in the NFC West standings, demoting San Francisco to a wild-card spot as the NFC’s fifth seed. Because the Saints beat the Seahawks head-to-head back in September, New Orleans would rank ahead of them while both squads share a 10-2 record; in other words, the Saints would have the first seed, the Seahawks would sit in the second seed, and the 49ers would fall to the fifth seed.

Of course, that’s contingent to the Seahawks winning at CenturyLink Field. They’re favored by just 2.5 points per BetMGM, Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is notoriously spotty in night games (he’s gone 7-13 in his career on that stage, and is 3-4 there since joining the Vikings) and laid an egg in this same venue in these same circumstances last year, losing 21-7 to the Seahawks on Monday Night Football in early December. On top of that nasty precedent, Cousins will be playing without wide receiver Adam Thielen, his favorite target who was preemptively ruled out with a hamstring injury.

So chances are good that the Saints will be able to (temporarily) grab the top seed in the NFC playoffs picture after this game. Just to be sure, root for the Seahawks to win — not that Saints fans will need much encouraging to pull against the Vikings, given the rocky history between those two teams. If nothing else, this added drama will stoke the intensity when the Saints and 49ers kick off next Sunday from inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

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