In a 12-round super middleweight title fight, Canelo Alvarez meets John Ryder Saturday at Estadio Akron in Zapopan, Jalisco, Mexico. The main fight card is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (DAZN PPV), with the main event scheduled for approximately 11 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Canelo vs. Ryder odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.
Canelo will fight on his native Mexican soil for the first time since Nov. 26, 2011, when he won in a 5th-Round TKO against Kermit Cintron at Monumental Plaza de Toros in Mexico City.
After having his lunch handed to him at the light heavyweight division against Dmitrii Bivol at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on May 7, 2022, Canelo was back in the super middleweight division for a payday against Gennady Golovkin last time out Sept. 17. He eased by GGG in a unanimous-decision win.
Ryder, a.k.a. “The Gorilla”, doesn’t figure to offer much resistance against Canelo in his native land. Ryder does have 4 straight wins since a unanimous-decision setback against Callum Smith in Liverpool in Nov. 2019. But wins over tomato cans like Mike Guy, Jozef Jurko, Daniel Jacobs and Zach Parker don’t exactly move the needle. He will be overwhelmed, and underprepared, against a quality opponent like Canelo.
Canelo vs. Ryder odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (3-way line): Canelo Alvarez -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100) | John Ryder +800 (bet $100 to win $800) | Draw +2500 (bet $100 to win $2,500)
- Over/Under: 10 rounds (Over -140 | Under +100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +240 | No -350)
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Canelo vs. Ryder picks and predictions
Records: Canelo (58-2-2, 39 KOs) | Ryder (32-5-0, 18 KOs)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Canelo (-1600) will have more talent, and easily more fans backing him in Mexico. However, you cannot risk 16 times your potential return, as there is just no value betting such heavy favorites. Over the long term it’s a foolish betting strategy.
Instead, focus on group betting. CANELO IN ROUNDS 5-8 (+200) can help you double up your initial wager, and it’s a much more sound investment.
I like Canelo to get the win via knockout, too, but at -275 for a KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ, that’s just too rich for my blood.
Over/Under (O/U)
Look to LESS THAN 10 ROUNDS (-140) for the bout length, as Canelo isn’t going to waste time with Ryder. This isn’t going to Round 11 or longer, and it certainly won’t be decided by the judges.
In addition, I kinda like the OVER 2.5 (+250) FOR OFFICIAL RECORDED KNOCKDOWNS. The final knockdown will be when Ryder is KO’d, but we should see a couple before the final blow, too. It’s a little risky, but worth a shot for a chance to multiply your wager by 2.5 times.
Visit Boxing Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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