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In a 12-round WBC and WBO super middleweight championship bout, Canelo Alvarez and Edgar Berlanga meet Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The fight will take place at approximately 11 p.m. ET (DAZN), with the Pay-Per-View card beginning at 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Canelo vs. Berlanga odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.
Records: Canelo (61-2-2, 39 KOs) | Berlanga (22-0-0, 17 KOs)
The 34-year-old Canelo picked up the IBF, WBC and WBO super middleweight belts from Jaime Munguia in an unanimous decision at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Prior to that, he stopped Jermell Charlo at T-Mobile Arena, also by unanimous decision. He has won 4 in a row since losing via unanimous decision against Dmitrii Bivol.
In fact, each of Canelo’s past 5 fights have ended up going the distance. His last finish came in Round 11 over at MGM Grand Garden Arena, topping Caleb Plant via KO/TKO.
The 27-year-old Berlanga, a.k.a. “The Chosen One”, is looking to shock the world. He has never lost, while winning 17 of his 22 career bouts via KO/TKO, a 72.7% conversion rate.
Berlanga stopped Padraig McCrory in Orlando via KO/TKO, and he has fought at this venue before. He stopped Marcelo Coceres at T-Mobile Arena in a unanimous decision on Oct. 9, 2021.
Canelo has a 70 1/2-inch reach, while Berlanga has a 73-inch reach. The challenger also stands at 6-foot-1, while Canelo is just 5-foot-7 1/2.
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Canelo vs. Berlanga odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook: access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Alvarez -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100) | Berlanga +800 (bet $100 to win $800)
- Total Rounds 8.5 (Over -120 | Under -120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +225 | No -300)
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Canelo vs. Berlanga picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Canelo (-2000) will set you back 20 times your potential return betting on the 2-way line, which means risking $100 for every $5 of profit.
It shouldn’t have to be said that betting such heavy favorites is not a good idea in the long run.
Let’s get a little more specific instead. CANELO ON POINTS (+250) for the chance to multiply up by 2 1/2 times is a much better bet. Berlanga is the much taller fighter, and he has a big reach advantage, too. He should be able to keep Canelo at a big of a distance, avoiding the big blow. However, Canelo is Canelo, and he’ll likely wow the judges, doing enough to get the job done on the scorecards of the judges.
Over/Under (O/U)
If you don’t want to back Canelo to win, yet still want action on this fight, YES (+225): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play. Canelo has ended up going the distance in 5 consecutive fights.
While Berlanga has won via decision just 5 times in 22 career bouts, he has fought a lot of tomato cans along the way, and not a future Hall of Famer like Canelo.
And, if you’re a little more on the conservative side, OVER 8.5 ROUNDS (-120) is a safe play.
Visit Boxing Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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