Carlos Hyde had an unexpectedly productive season with the Houston Texans last season. One doesn’t need to look at advance analytics to believe the former San Francisco 49ers 2014 second-round pick rejuvenated his career with the AFC South club.
However, the numbers could be an indicator of what the Texans could expect from former 2016 All-Pro running back David Johnson, who Houston picked up in their pre-free agency trading of receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
According to Nick Shook of NFL.com, Hyde collected 116 rushing yards over expectation, and 922 expected rushing yards. Per attempt, Hyde had 0.48 RYOE per attempt, which is to say that his 4.3 yards per carry was 0.5 yards more than expected. Hyde’s results made him the eighth-best running back last year when it came to exceeding expectations.
Hyde, who signed with Seattle this offseason, traveled a hill steeper than anyone else on this list during his time with the Texans last year. Houston’s offensive line helped account for an ugly 3.8 xYPC — the second-lowest xYPC in the entire NFL — yet Hyde still found a way to make lemonade out of lemons. His 4.3 yards-per-carry mark is, if adequate, also the lowest mark of anyone on this list, but when considering what the expectation was, his 116 yards RYOE prove he was at least doing his job, if not more. Hyde isn’t among the league’s elite backs — he’s the only back on this list with a 10-plus-yard run percentage below 10 percent — but for a team in need of a lead runner, he fulfilled his duties at a satisfactory level.
What was impressive about Hyde’s production is he was part of an end-of-preseason trade; he arrived in Houston the week they were getting ready for Week 1 at the New Orleans Saints. Hyde wasn’t rattled, and collected 1,070 rushing yards for the season. His 4.3 yards per carry may not have been the highest of his career, but neither were the 245 carries, which gives greater context to the yards per carry.
What isn’t talked about in Shook’s piece is the impact of the Texans’ offensive line, which is returning the same five starters from a year ago. All of the advantages Hyde had in 2019 will be present for Johnson. The former Arizona Cardinals 2015 third-round pick from Northern Iowa may not replicate his 2016 season entirely, but he could find a similar revitalization in Houston that Hyde found.
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