Can you name the last time a Raider has won the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award? That would be Marcus Allen in 1982 when he scored 14 touchdowns in nine games. Josh Jacobs came in second place in 2019, getting 13 of the 50 total votes (Kyler Murray earned 26.5).
So what are the chances that the Raiders could actually have a player win the award in 2020? They aren’t as bad as you would think.
Currently, Henry Ruggs’ odds to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award sit at +1800, which are the ninth-best odds, according to BetMGM. Despite being the first receiver drafted, both CeeDee Lamb (+1400) and Jerry Jeudy (+1400) have better odds than the former Alabama speedster.
In a recent article by Anthony Treash of Pro Football Focus, he named Ruggs as the fifth-most likely player to win the award in 2020. Take a look at why he thinks the No. 12 pick as a shot at winning the award this season:
With his ability to both make plays in traffic and produce after the catch, Ruggs is going to fit like a glove in his team’s West Coast offense. Almost half of Derek Carr’s passes last year were horizontal-lead passes — throws that lead the receiver across the field, a staple of the West Coast offense — and Ruggs did his best work on such plays at Alabama. On his horizontal lead targets, Ruggs burnt off a 20-yard gain on 34.5% of his opportunities; he also averaged an FBS-best 12.1 yards after the catch per reception and generated a near-perfect 154.1 passer rating when targeted.
One thing going against Ruggs is that receivers just don’t win the Rookie of the Year Award very often. Since 2004, only two receivers have taken home the honors (Percy Harvin in 2009 and Odell Beckham in 2014). For Ruggs to win the award, he would likely need to eclipse 1,000 yards and 10 total touchdowns to even be considered as quarterbacks and running backs almost always get the nod here.
It is very likely that Ruggs’ impact for the Raiders will go far beyond the box score as he helps open up the rest of their offense. Unfortunately, that isn’t something voters care about and that is why it seems unlikely that he will win the award. But if Ruggs can hit 10-12 big plays down the field over the course of the season, you never know.
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