The California Golden Bears (0-1 overall, 0-1 Pac-12) visit the Oregon State Beavers (0-2, 0-2) Saturday in a conference showdown at 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the California-Oregon State college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
California at Oregon State: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:09 a.m. ET.
- Money line: California -139 (bet $139 to win $100) | Oregon State +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: California -2.5 (-110) | Oregon State +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 46.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
California at Oregon State: Three things to know
- California got crushed in its first game of the season, 34-10, by UCLA in a game that was played under COVID-altered circumstances. The two teams were only given a 43-hour notice that they’d be playing each other this past Sunday after both teams’ scheduled opponents were unavailable due to COVID outbreaks.
- Oregon State’s defense kept the Beavers close in last week’s 27-21 loss to Washington, but its offense only gained 252 yards on the day. Oregon State exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by covering as a 13.5-point road underdog.
- This is the sixth-straight California-Oregon State game that the Golden Bears have been favored in. Oregon State beat California outright last season, 21-17, as a 10-point road underdog.
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California at Oregon State: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
California 28, Oregon State 24
Money line (ML)
The sharps and the public are aligned on this one: 71% of the money wagered and 57% of the bets placed are on Oregon State, which caused the line to move from Oregon State +190 to the current price (according to Pregame.com). I am not really sure why though.
California has the highest return of offensive production according to ESPN while the Beavers are 103rd in offensive return of production. Last year’s starting quarterback for Oregon State—Jake Luton—is now starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL.
Also, California got destroyed in its first game against UCLA, but that was off short prep and a Chip Kelly-offense without a lot of time to prepare can be a nightmare. Oregon State is minus-1.2 in yards per game, 90th in opponent’s points per play and third-down conversion percentage.
Let’s take a contrarian stance on the market and BET CALIFORNIA (-139) for 1 unit.
Against the spread (ATS)
We’ve gotten too good of a number on the money line so let’s PASS ON THE SPREAD. However, the trend of the favorite being 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings just strengthens our case for taking California on the money line. If Oregon State were to win outright, that would mean bookmakers were more than a touchdown off on California, which opened as a 6.5-point favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
This is another spot where we can fade the market. I lean to the Over 46.5 (-110) partially because 98% of the money is on the Under in this game and it’s obviously recency bias.
Oregon State has put up 24.5 points per game through its first two despite the offense having so much production turnover and California’s offense should bounce back from a terrible performance in its first game.
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