The third-seeded Buffalo Bills (12-6) face the second-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (13-5) Sunday in a rematch of last season’s conference championship in the AFC Divisional Round. Kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (on CBS). Below, we look at the Bills vs. Chiefs odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
The third-seeded Bills won their fifth straight game by crushing the New England Patriots 47-17 in an AFC Wild Card game as 4.5-point road underdogs. The Bills are 10-6-2 against the spread (ATS) and 9-9 Over/Under (O/U).
The Chiefs, the No. 2 seed, handled business as 11-point home favorites in their Wild Card matchup by dismantling the Pittsburgh Steelers 42-21 for their 10th win in the past 11 games. The Chiefs are 9-9 ATS and 11-7 O/U.
The Bills whooped the Chiefs 38-20 in Week 5 as 2.5-point road underdogs. Buffalo had 3.1 more yards per play than K.C., was better in the red zone and on third down and had a plus-4 in turnover margin.
Also see: All Divisional Round odds and lines
Bills at Chiefs odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:04 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bills +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Chiefs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Bills +1.5 (-108) | Chiefs -1.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 53.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Bills at Chiefs key injuries
Bills
- None
Chiefs
- None
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NFL Divisional Round Weekend
Let’s Make This Interesting
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Bills at Chiefs odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bills 34, Chiefs 24
Money line
I’m sticking with my preseason guns and ROLLING with the BILLS (+102) for 1.25 units.
I predicted Buffalo would meet the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI on Bet Slippin’s final NFL season preview podcast and see no reason to change my pick.
Bills QB Josh Allen is a bona fide alpha, head coach Sean McDermott is an elite tactician and has paid his playoff dues, and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is perhaps the hottest head coaching candidate.
Buffalo is fantastic in high-leverage situations. The Bills have the best third-down conversion differential in the NFL and the sixth-best, red-zone scoring differential.
Buffalo is structured perfectly to go against Kansas City. The Bills have possibly the best safety tandem in the league (FS Micah Hyde and SS Jordan Poyer) and one of the best coverage linebackers in Matt Milano.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce playing well is crucial for K.C.’s offense and the Bills have the coaching and players to neutralize Kelce.
Buffalo’s defense can force Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes into being precise up-and-down the field. We’ve seen Mahomes get antsy and throw the ball into tight windows if opponents eliminate the big play.
Mahomes threw 2 interceptions and just 272 yards on 54 pass attempts in the Week 5 loss to the Bills. Mahomes’ 4.11 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt in that game was his lowest in 63 career starts.
More importantly, the Bills have higher expected points added per play, yards per play differential and pressure rate differentials than the Chiefs.
The only fat on Buffalo’s resume is it had the easiest schedule in the NFL (according to Football Outsiders) and a weird 9-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9.
The Bills stomped the Chiefs earlier this season and are playing their best football entering this game. Buffalo’s beatdown of New England in the Wild Card Round is one of the greatest games any team has ever played.
BET the BILLS (+102). But if there’s late line movement toward Kansas City and Buffalo’s spread goes north of +2.5, then I’d sprinkle on the Bills outright and hammer them plus the points.
Against the spread
PASS with a heavy “lean” toward the Bills +1.5 (-108) and I’d take Buffalo’s spread if gets to +2.5 or higher. Either way, the Bills are the right side and I like them to advance to the AFC title game.
Over/Under
PASS because my heart says both offenses play an awesome game Sunday, but my brain says this 53.5 total is too high.
Plus, a majority of the market is betting the Over, which has steamed the total up from the 52.5-point opener, but I hate following the herd in sports betting.
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