The Buffalo Bills (7-3) and Detroit Lions (4-6) open Thanksgiving’s triple-header with the early game from Ford Field at 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Bills vs. Lions odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
QB Josh Allen and the Bills beat the Cleveland Browns at Ford Field 31-23 last week, covering the spread as 7.5-point favorites. The game was moved to Detroit due to a snowstorm in Western New York. Allen threw for 197 yards with a TD in the victory.
The Lions, who were 3-point underdogs, went on the road and beat the New York Giants 31-18 in Week 11. Detroit was able to hold New York RB Saquon Barkley to 22 rushing yards on 15 carries.
If the Lions want to win this matchup, they’ll need to stop the 6-foot-5, 240-pound Allen from running and throwing all over them. It will be a challenging task for Detroit, which is 37-43-2 on Thanksgiving.
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Bills at Lions odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:44 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bills -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Lions +350 (bet $100 to win $350)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bills +-9.5 (-111) | Lions +9.5 (-109)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54 (O: -107 | U: -113)
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Bills at Lions key injuries
Bills
- LB Tremaine Edmunds (groin) out
- DE A.J. Epenesa (ankle) doubtful
- C Mitch Morse (elbow, ankle) questionable
- DE Greg Rousseau (ankle) out
Lions
- OL Evan Brown (ankle) out
- DE Charles Harris (groin) out
- OL Jonah Jackson (concussion) out
- CB Jeff Okudah (concussion) out
- DE Joshua Paschal (knee) out
- WR Josh Reynolds (back) questionable
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Bills at Lions picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 31, Lions 17
Moneyline
PASS.
The Bills (-450) are the far better team, but it’s not smart a smart sports betting strategy to risk 4.5 times your potential profit. I could see including them in a multi-team parlay, however.
Against the spread
BET BILLS -9.5 (-111).
The Bills just played at Ford Field last week because of the Buffalo snowstorm with 56,000 strong showing up and buying tickets within 48 hours of the announced change. The Bills were comfortable in the atmosphere, and this week will be no different.
While they won’t have close to as many fans this time, the Bills will feel right at home. Allen and WR Stefon Diggs will take advantage of Lions CB Okudah missing this game. Diggs, after being upset early last week by the lack of targets vs. Cleveland, will be fed this week vs. Detroit, perfect for Thanksgiving.
BUFFALO -9.5 (-111) is my FAVORITE PLAY in this game.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 54 (-113).
What will it take for this game to get to this substantial number? Buffalo to score 40.
While it’s possible, I don’t find it likely.
Last week, the Bills racked up 31 points. On a short week, they will look to get out with no injuries, while the Lions will use RBs D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams to shorten the game and keep the Bills offense off the field.
With limited drives being the goal, the game will be a slow paced, and the scoring is not likely to reach this number. While the game will be close, I don’t see it going Over 54. Therefore, UNDER 54 (-113) is the play.
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