The Buffalo Bills (11-3) battle the Chicago Bears (3-11) at Soldier Field Saturday. Kickoff from Chicago is set for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Bills vs. Bears odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Bills beat the Miami Dolphins 32-29 in Week 15, failing to cover as 7-point home favorites. They are just 6-7-1 against the spread (ATS) this season and are 2-4 ATS when given a double-digit spread. Buffalo is led by its elite pass attack, ranking 5th in the NFL in passing yards per game. (265.6) and 2nd in total yards per game (400.6).
The Bears lost to the Eagles 25-20 in Week 15, but covered as 8.5-point underdogs. Chicago is just 5-8-1 ATS on the season and is 1-2 ATS when a double-digit underdog. It does have the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 186.9 yards on the ground per game.
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Bills at Bears odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bills -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Bears +325 (bet $100 to win $325)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bills -8 (-108) | Bears +8 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 40 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Bills at Bears key injuries
Bills
- DE Boogie Basham (calf) out
- C Mitch Morse (concussion) out
- DT Ed Oliver (calf) questionable
- DT Jordan Phillips (shoulder) questionable
Bears
- WR Chase Claypool (knee) doubtful
- OL Teven Jenkins (neck) doubtful
- DB Jaylon Johnson (finger, ribs) questionable
- WR Equanimeous St. Brown (concussion) out
- DB Kindle Vildor (ankle) out
- OL Cody Whitehair (knee) doubtful
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Bills at Bears picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 27, Bears 20
Moneyline
PASS.
The Bills on the road in frigid weather conditions at -400 shouldn’t even be in a multi-team parlay let alone a straight-up bet. Nonetheless, they have the No. 1 seed to play for and should beat Chicago in the Windy City.
Against the spread
BET BEARS +8 (-112).
The Bears are 3-3 ATS when the spread is a touchdown or more.
With the weather conditions, this game should be played more on the ground. It is supposed to be 12 degrees in Chicago at kickoff. While the Bills are used to the conditions, it doesn’t make passing any easier.
The Bills have been without DE Von Miller, who was a crucial part of their defensive line as well and would’ve been useful in slowing down Fields. They rank 9th in total yards against (325.4).
Buffalo will be a heavy public favorite as well. Pregame.com has 77% of the tickets and 63% of the cash on the Bills.
That means the bigger money is coming on the Bears. In sports betting, you typically want to side with the sportsbooks, and they need the Bears to cover. Ultimately, back the BEARS +8 (-112).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 40 (-112).
The Bills-Dolphins ended 32-29, and while those were two dynamic offenses, the same thought about weather creating lower scoring was there last week. That went over the 45 total.
The Bills are 3-3 O/U in their last 6 games. This will be their lowest total of the season. They have topped 30 by themselves 6 times this year. The Bears are 9-5 O/U this season and are 7-1 O/U in their last 8 games.
Considering the trends, for a partial unit, bet the OVER 40 (-112).
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