The San Antonio Spurs (17-28) host the Brooklyn Nets (28-16) Friday at the AT&T Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Nets vs. Spurs odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Brooklyn has alternated between winning and losing over the past 10 games with the latest being a 119-118 victory versus the Washington Wizards Wednesday. The Nets are 18-26 against the spread (ATS) and 21-23 Over/Under (O/U).
San Antonio crushed the Oklahoma City Thunder 118-96 Wednesday, but the Spurs are just 2-5 overall in the last seven games. The Spurs are 24-21 ATS and 22-21-2 O/U.
The Nets (-9.5) eked past the Spurs 121-119 in overtime Jan. 9, but Brooklyn has won four straight versus San Antonio (3-1 ATS).
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA January 21 breakdown
Nets at Spurs odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nets -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Spurs -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nets -1.5 (-105) | Spurs +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Nets at Spurs key injuries
Nets
- SF Kevin Durant (knee) out
- C Nic Claxton (hamstring) questionable
Spurs
- None.
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Nets at Spurs odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Spurs 118, Nets 116
Money line
BET the SPURS (-110) for 1 unit for a variety of reasons. First of all, the Spurs are better than their record indicates.
For example, San Antonio has the second-worst win differential based on adjusted net rating at a minus-4.1 but is fifth in ATS margin at plus-2.0, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Essentially the Spurs have four fewer wins than they should.
Second, San Antonio gets a lot of easy buckets whereas Brooklyn gives up easy scores. The Spurs are 12th in points off of turnovers per game, fourth in second-chance points per game (PPG), ninth in fast-break PPG and second in paint PPG.
Whereas the Nets’ defense is 26th in points off of turnovers per game, 22nd in second-chance PPG, 27th in fast-break PPG and 17th in paint PPG allowed.
Also, San Antonio does a good job keeping foes off the free throw line, which is massively important when facing James Harden. In fact, the Nets are fourth in adjusted offensive free-throw rate and the Spurs are fourth in adjusted defensive free-throw rate, per CTG.
Furthermore, San Antonio is seventh in adjusted offensive rating at home, and Brooklyn struggles against good offenses (CTG). The Nets are 5-9 straight-up (SU) with a minus-3.8 adjusted net rating and the worst ATS margin at minus-6.8, per CTG.
Moreover, San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games versus teams with a 60.0% winning percentage or better and 6-4 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record. These ATS trends are applicable since this game is priced as a coin-flip.
Finally, all the money is coming in on Brooklyn in this spot but the look-ahead line has dropped from the Nets -145 to the current price (according to Pregame.com). It feels like the sportsbooks are laying a trap with Brooklyn.
BET the SPURS (-110).
Against the spread
PASS since the Spurs +1.5 (-102) doesn’t provide much insurance for San Antonio’s money line (ML). However, if the Spurs’ spread goes north of +2.5 then I’d sprinkle on San Antonio’s ML and take the points with the Spurs.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 232.5 (-110) for a small wager, if at all, because I much prefer the San Antonio side more than the total.
That said, there are many Over-friendly trends in this game. The Spurs score a lot more points in San Antonio where they are 15-6-1 O/U. Brooklyn is 12-9 O/U on the road, and the Over is 5-0 in the last five Nets-Spurs meetings.
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