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The Boston Red Sox (63-57) and Washington Nationals (54-67) meet Thursday at 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network) to close out a 3-game series at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
Boston had just 4 hits in Wednesday’s 6-2 loss, and the Red Sox own a mere .545 OPS in this series. The Crimson Hose have struggled in games against the Senior Circuit as they are 19-23 against the NL.
Since July 8, Washington is 13-3 at home. Over those 16 games, the Nationals have banged out an .817 OPS.
Red Sox at Nationals projected starters
LHP Chris Sale vs. LHP Patrick Corbin
Sale (5-2, 4.52 ERA) is tabbed for his 13th start. He has logged a 1.12 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 63 2/3 inning.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 7 K in a 5-2 home win over the Detroit Tigers Friday
- 2023 road stats: 4-2, 5.34 ERA in 32 IP in 6 starts
- Has faced the Nationals once in his career (2 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB on Oct. 3, 2021)
- Making his 2nd start off the IL (left scapula)
Corbin (7-11, 4.85 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 137 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 H, 1 R (0 ER), 7 BB, 2 K in 6-2 loss at Philadelphia Phillies Aug. 10
- 2023 home stats: 3-7, 4.78 ERA in 69 2/3 IP in 12 starts
- Has faced Boston twice in his career: 0-2, 8.22 ERA in 7 2/23 IP (2013-16)
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Red Sox at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Red Sox -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Nationals +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (-115) | Nationals +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Red Sox at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 6, Nationals 5
Moneyline
At 4.36 runs per game and 5.07 RPG allowed, the Nats are a bit too far over their skis with their overall record. Both runs scoring figures aren’t fully supported by analytics either, so Washington is certainly a fade candidate in a vacuum.
But a 2nd start off an IL visit is usually a turn from which to steer clear. And Boston owns a whiff-heavy .644 OPS vs. lefty pitching since the break.
AVOID.
Run line/Against the spread
Same as above. This isn’t a great game for betting sides. PASS.
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Over/Under
The Nationals have banged the ball around at home of late. Sale starting for Boston swings the Nats around to their best platoon side (.772 OPS vs. left-handers).
With pitching being the negative here and with both sides being bottom-third units defensively, BACK THE OVER 9.5 (-110) on a warm night with an outward breeze in the forecast.
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