The Boston Red Sox (62-56) and Washington Nationals (53-66) meet Tuesday at 7:05 p.m. ET to open a 3-game series at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting since Boston swept 3 games in 2021
Boston hits the road after a 5-5 home stand. The Red Sox are 1-game under-.500 (27-28) on the road this season. They are 4 games under .500 (18-22) against NL teams.
The Nationals have struggled at home this season, but not of late. Since July 8, Washington is 12-2 in D.C. Over those 14 games, the Nats have banged out an .824 OPS.
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Red Sox at Nationals projected starters
RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP Josiah Gray
Pivetta (8-6, 4.16 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start. He has logged a 1.17 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 97 1/3 innings across 28 games (10 starts).
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 8 K in a 4-3 win over the Kansas City Royals Wednesday
- 2023 road stats: 2-2, 3.61 ERA in 42 1/3 IP in 12 games (4 starts)
- Last 5 starts vs. Nationals: 0-5, 11.25 ERA in 20 IP (2018-19)
- Has authored a 2.54 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 39:7 K:BB across 28.1 IP since the All-Star break
Gray (7-9, 3.69 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 126 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-4 win at Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday
- 2023 home stats: 3-5, 5.17 ERA in 47 IP over 9 starts
- Has faced Boston once as a starter: allowed 1 R on 3 H in 6 IP Oct. 2, 2021
- Owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.48 WHIP at home since 2021
- Owns an 80.4% left-on-base rate; has allowed a .250 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations
Red Sox at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Red Sox -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (-105) | Nationals +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Red Sox at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 6, Nationals 4
Moneyline
Gray is enough of a fade candidate to make Boston a lean. At 4.34 runs per game and 5.09 RPG allowed, the Nats are also a tad overcooked as a ball club.
Catch a better Sox price on the run line. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Washington offense has gotten a big, somewhat lucky, boost from a .321 BABIP in high-leverage situations at the plate. Gray has needed 173 pitches to go just 8 1/3 innings over his last 2 starts. He’s allowed 15 baserunners and 9 runs over those 2 turns.
There is some risk here with the way the Nats have played at home lately. But Boston has some value here. FanDuel Sportsbook has the better price on this one: RED SOX -1.5 (+100). Consider going with a partial-unit play as the lean is moderate at best.
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Over/Under
The Nationals have posted a .776 OPS over their last 10 games and an .824 mark over their last 14 games at Nationals Park.
Gray is suspect here and so is the Boston bullpen to a small extent. Both sides rate as bottom-third defensively.
Again, FanDuel’s price offers more leverage here. On a warm evening in D.C., BACK THE OVER 9 (-110).
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