The Boston Red Sox (40-42) begin a 3-game series at the Toronto Blue Jays (45-37) on Friday. First pitch from Rogers Centre is at 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 4-0
The Red Sox have been at or near the bottom of the AL East for quite some time now. They have lost 5 straight games and 6 of their last 8. The offense is in a slump and Boston hasn’t scored more than 4 runs in the last 8. That includes a 2-0 loss to the Miami Marlins on Thursday when RHP Brayan Bello took a no-hitter into the 8th inning.
The Blue Jays are also treading water in the dominant AL East, where they sit 4th. They have a winning record in interleague games and every in every AL division except their own. They are coming off a 2-1 victory against the San Francisco Giants.
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Red Sox at Blue Jays projected starters
LHP James Paxton vs. RHP José Berríos
Paxton (3-1, 3.19 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 42 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K in a 5-4 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Saturday
- Five of his 6 HRs alllowed are to right-handed batters, despite a .180 batting average against righties
Berríos (8-5, 3.60 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 95 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 7-3 victory against the lowly Oakland Athletics on Saturday
- Has .921 OPS when there are 0 outs vs. .525 when there is 1 out
Red Sox at Blue Jays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:58 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Blue Jays -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Red Sox at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 5
Moneyline
The Blue Jays may be 8 games above .500, but they are 7-17 versus the AL East. On top of that Toronto has lost 6 of their last 7 series openers. I see Boston breaking their 5 game losing streak.
BET RED SOX +120.
Run line/Against the spread
As a home favorite, the Blue Jays are just 12-21 ATS and they’re 13-7 in 1-run games. While that is a great stat line showing their poise under pressure, it is not a great option to pick them ATS. And with the Red Sox +1.5 (-165), it is best to PASS.
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Over/Under
Toronto has hit the Under more often than not this season (41-37-4) and its more glaring after a win (24-17-3). But just like their record, the Blue Jays are a different team when facing a division rival. They have an Over record of 14-9-1 against the AL East.
Boston has the same divisional trend, with an Over record of 14-10. They also have had recent success against righties, going Over in 5 of their last 7 games.
LEAN OVER 9 (+100).
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