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The Boston Red Sox (79-78) and Toronto Blue Jays (73-84) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Tuesday. First pitch from Rogers Centre is set for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Boston leads 7-4
The Red Sox won 4-1 as +105 underdogs in the Monday opener as the Under (8) hit. SP Tanner Houck (5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 K) recorded his 1st win in 11 starts since the All-Star break. Boston is 3½ games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and has a 0.5% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.com.
Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 0-for-4 Monday as his average dropped to .324. Toronto has lost 4 straight games and has already been eliminated from playoff contention.
Red Sox at Blue Jays projected starters
RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Bowden Francis
Bello (14-8, 4.49 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 158 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 2-0 setback at Tampa Bay Rays Thursday
- 2024 road stats: 8-4, 4.19 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 15 starts
- 2024 vs. Toronto: 2-1, 4.96 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 3 starts
- Career vs. Toronto: 3-4, 5.58 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 8 starts
Francis (8-5, 3.47 ERA) makes his 13th start and 27th appearance. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 98 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 2-0 setback at Texas Rangers Wednesday
- 2024 home stats: 3-1, 3.80 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 12 appearances (4 starts)
- 2024 vs. Boston: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (8 IP), 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 2 appearances (1 start)
- Career vs. Boston: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (9 2/3 IP), 0.31 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 in 4 appearances (1 start)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Red Sox at Blue Jays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 11:14 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Blue Jays -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-200) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Red Sox at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 5, Red Sox 4
Moneyline
The BLUE JAYS (-125) have not lost 5 straight games since a 7-game skid June 17-24. Toronto is a respectable 30-20 on the season as a home favorite, and Bello’s career 5.58 ERA against it bodes well for a Toronto bounceback game.
While Boston is playing to keep its postseason hopes alive, this is still a divisional rivalry and Toronto would love to eliminate the Red Sox.
BET BLUE JAYS (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
Boston +1.5 (-200) will likely hit, but it’s hard to win long term in MLB betting into lines with this much vig.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Over has gone 29-21 (58%) in divisional games for the Blue Jays this season. Bello has struggled against Toronto in his career, and Guerrero will likely have a big game after going hitless Monday. In his last outing after a no-hit performance, Guerrero went 3-for-4 with 2 HRs (Sept. 19 at Texas).
BET OVER 8 (+100). I’m also not against playing VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR. OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (+120) as a derivative.
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