[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Toronto Blue Jays (73-83) welcome the Boston Red Sox (78-78) to Rogers Centre Monday for the 1st game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 6-4
The Red Sox swept the Minnesota Twins in a Sunday doubleheader, winning 8-1 and then 9-3. Boston did lose the opener of the 3-game series and is just 3-4 over its last 7. The Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East and a solid 41-37 on the road. They are 73-83 against the spread (ATS).
The Blue Jays, who are 5th in the AL East, were swept by the Tampa Bay Rays on the road, dropping Sunday’s final game of the series 4-3 as a +115 underdog. Toronto lost 2 of 3 to the Texas Rangers in the series prior. It is 1-5 in its last 6 games and 6-12 over its last 18. The Blue Jays are 38-37 at home and 79-77 ATS.
Red Sox at Blue Jays projected starters
RHP Tanner Houck vs. RHP Chris Bassitt
Houck (8-10, 3.21 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 2-1 road win over the Tampa Bay Rays Wednesday
- 2024 away stats: 4-4, 3.08 ERA (79 IP, 27 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 14 starts
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 0-1, 3.94 ERA (32 IP, 14 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 7 appearances (6 starts)
Bassitt (10-13, 4.16 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 166 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 13-8 road loss to the Texas Rangers Tuesday
- 2024 home stats: 7-7, 4.58 ERA (96 1/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 17 starts
- Career vs. Red Sox: 2-1, 2.21 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 6 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Red Sox at Blue Jays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:07 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Blue Jays -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+170) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-210)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -125)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Red Sox at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 2
Moneyline
BET RED SOX (+100).
Simply put, the Red Sox have been hot while the Blue Jays have been the polar opposite. Boston is 4 games out the last Wild Card spot and has something to play for while the Blue Jays have already been eliminated. The Red Sox are 2-1 in Houck’s last 3 starts and have won 3 of their last 5 games.
Boston has found its offense as well, scoring 17 runs in its last 2 games. The Blue Jays have totaled 5 runs in their last 3 games, so their offense has disappeared. Toronto has lost 3 in a row, but each loss was by 1 run, giving the moneyline value here over the run line.
With all that in mind, back RED SOX (+100).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Red Sox as a run-line favorite, especially against a pitcher of Bassitt’s caliber, are far too risky to take. Similarly, the Blue Jays are too expensive to play as a run-line underdog.
Avoid this play.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8 (-125).
The Blue Jays have gone Under in 5 straight games, scoring just 9 total runs in those games and allowing just 10. Toronto has one of its stronger pitchers starting on the mound as well.
The Red Sox have gone Over in 2 straight, but have gone Under in 3 of their last 5. They have defended at a high level, allowing just 11 runs over their last 5 games. While their offense has been hot over the last 2, they have tallied 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 7.
Put it all together and take UNDER 8 (-125).
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com:
Subscribe now to dominate the competition.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]