The Boston Red Sox (65-48) and Toronto Blue Jays (59-50) close out a four-game AL East series Sunday. First pitch at Rogers Centre is slated for 1:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Garrett Richards is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. Richards is 6-7 with a 5.21 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, and 4.0 BB/9 in 105 1/3 IP over 21 starts.
- Has a shaky line against current Toronto batters with a .942 OPS allowed and a 1.5-to-1 K/BB ratio.
- Owns a 6.66 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over his last 51 1/3 IP. He’s facing the Blue Jays for the fourth time over that stretch and a third time since the All-Star break, and has a 6.15 ERA in five starts overall against Toronto in 2021.
LHP Hyun Jin Ryu is the projected starter for the Blue Jays. He is 11-5 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 in 123 IP over 21 starts.
- Is coming off strong back-to-back outings and has logged a 1.85 ERA since the All-Star break. That span includes a July 29 start that saw Ryu shut out the Sox for 6 innings.
- Current Boston bats own a .575 OPS and .126 isolated power against him.
Red Sox at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:13 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Blue Jays -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-112) | Blue Jays -1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 2
Money line (ML)
Boston is 2-7 on a current road trip that has included trips to Tampa Bay and Detroit, and the Red Sox have been passed by the Rays as leaders in a talented AL East.
Meanwhile, Toronto has been at home all week – truly at home in Ontario, Canada, and not Dunedin, Fla., or Buffalo, N.Y. – and the Blue Jays have been making their own move in the standings. They are 8-2 on a home stand that kicked off July 30.
These AL East foes are coming off a pitcher’s duel double dip. They split a pair of Saturday games that saw a total of 4 runs scored.
The Jays owned a second-half OPS of .852 before Saturday’s double-header. With this pitching matchup and with Boston’s bullpen being much more in recent-use fatigue territory, Toronto is worth being a big favorite on Sunday.
… Up to about a -120 price, but this line is too much. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The price on Toronto burying a road-weary Boston club is really attractive here: BACK THE BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-108).
A very good Boston offense has more than its fair share of troubles against ground-ball types, and Ryu leans that way. Before Saturday, the Blue Jays’ previous 21 winswere by 2 or more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
The run-scoring for both these clubs – Boston at 4.81 runs per game, Toronto at 5.16 RPG – isn’t fully supported by peripheral numbers.
A roof-open game at Rogers Centre (a strong likelihood) would add in some high humidity and an outward breeze.
BACK THE OVER 9.5 (+105).
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