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The Boston Red Sox (74-76) and the Texas Rangers (82-67) start a 3-game series Monday at Globe Life Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Boston leads 2-1
Both the Red Sox and Rangers were swept in a 3-game series over the weekend. The losses diminished Boston’s slim playoff chances and dropped Texas to the final AL Wild Card.
Boston is coming off a 3-2 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday. Blue Jays LF Daulton Varsho connected on a solo home run in the 5th inning to extend the Jays’ lead to 2-0 but the Red Sox scored 1 run in the 7th thanks to a single by 2B Pablo Reyes and 1 in the 9th on a solo shot by 3B Rafael Devers. The clutch comeback performance ended with heartbreak for the 2nd straight game as Toronto 3B Matt Chapman hit a walk-off triple in the bottom of the frame. Boston’s playoff chances are almost nonexistent following the sweep.
The Rangers were toppled 9-2 by the Cleveland Guardians Sunday. Rangers 3B Josh Smith hit an RBI single in the 2nd inning to stake Texas to an early lead, but the Guardians scored 9 runs in the 4th inning to take an insurmountable lead. Rangers C Austin Hedges was the only player on Texas with a multi-hit game as Cleveland RHP Gavin Williams pitched 6 innings with just 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, and 7 K. The Rangers are now 1 1/2 games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West and have slipped to the 3rd AL Wild Card.
Red Sox at Rangers projected starters
RHP Kutter Crawford vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery
Crawford (6-7, 4.26 ERA) makes his 21st start and 29th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 112 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 4-1 home loss vs. New York Yankees Tuesday
- 2023 road stats: 6-3, 2.69 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 18 ER) in 10 starts and 4 relief appearances
- Career vs. Rangers : 0-0, 4.50 ERA (6 IP, 3 ER) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
Montgomery (9-11, 3.47 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 168 2/3 IP for the Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 10-0 road win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday
- 2023 home stats: 6-5, 4.10 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 39 ER) in 15 starts
- Career vs. Red Sox: 1-2, 3.95 ERA (70 2/3 IP, 31 ER) in 14 starts
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Red Sox at Rangers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:52 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Rangers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-155) | Rangers -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Red Sox at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 5, Red Sox 4
Moneyline
The Red Sox are reeling after getting swept by Toronto. Boston is just 31-44 after a loss and is just 14-15 vs. the AL West.
Texas is 18-11 versus the AL East and is tied for the league’s 4th-best win percentage at home (45-30, 60%). I see the Rangers breaking out of their slump before the Red Sox can.
However, it’s a bit too chalky at -160 so you should PASS and wait to see if the line improves.
Run line/Against the spread
Texas is 1 of 4 teams with a winning record ATS as a home favorite but it’s barely over .500% (32-30). Boston on the other hand is 45-32 ATS as an underdog and 40-34 on the road; as road ‘dogs the Red Sox are 30-19 ATS.
However, like the moneyline -155 may be too juicy to get any value. You may want to look at the O/U.
LEAN RED SOX +1.5 (-155).
Over/Under
While both teams trend towards the Over, the books think this will be a lower-scoring game than average. However, Texas at home has the highest Over rate in MLB (62.3%) while Boston on the road has the 5th best Over percentage (55.6%).
Crawford has been solid on the road this season, but he logged a season-high 4.73 ERA in August and he’s notched a 6.48 ERA across 2 starts in September.
BET OVER 8.5 (-110).
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