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The Boston Red Sox (76-76) visit the Tampa Bay Rays (74-78) for the Thursday finale of a 3-game series in St. Petersburg. The start time at Tropicana Field will be 6:50 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 5-4
Boston lost the opener 8-3 and won Wednesday 2-1. SS Trevor Story homered and scored the eventual winning run, breaking a 1-1 tie, on CF Jarren’s Duran’s single in the 8th, while 6 Red Sox pitchers scattered 8 hits with 2 walks in holding the Rays offense to 1 run.
On Thursday, the Crimson Hose will attempt to win a 2nd straight game for just the 2nd time since Aug. 27-28. Wednesday was only Boston’s 2nd win in its last 11 road games.
Tampa Bay’s 8 runs in Tuesday’s tilt stand as an outlier. The Rays have scored just 10 total runs across their last 4 games, and they have averaged just 2.85 runs per game over their last 13.
Red Sox at Rays projected starters
RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Zack Littell
Bello (14-7, 4.60 ERA) is making his 29th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 152 2/3 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 7-1 victory at New York Yankees Saturday
- Career vs. Rays: 2-3, 6.47 ERA (32 IP, 23 ER), 1.63 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 6 starts
- 2024 vs. Rays, 1 start, win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 8-5 road victory May 22
- Per ESPN, current Rays bats own an aggregate .912 OPS him
Littell (7-9, 3.73 ERA) is tabbed for his 28th start. He own a 1.29 WHIP, with a 1.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 144 2/3 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 3-1 triumph at Cleveland Guardians Friday
- Career vs. Red Sox: 1-0, 4.26 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 12 H, 2 BB, 12 K in 3 games (2 starts)
- 2024 vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 5.06 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 10 K in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Red Sox at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:44 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Rays -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+165) | Rays +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Red Sox at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 4, Rays 3
Moneyline
Tampa Bay is just 1-7 over its last 8 series finales. Boston is a solid road club (41-36), and the Red Sox are 4-1 over their last 5 games at Tropicana Field.
The BoSox have scored 715 runs this season (4.7 per game) and have yielded the same number. But analytics peg both sides of that equation as being rather unfortunate. Bello also has some play to his numbers, so Boston is a lean in Thursday’s game.
BACK RED SOX (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
The keeper of the hold is the only enviable position here. AVOID.
Over/Under
The Under is 6-1-1 in Boston’s last 8 games and 6-1 in Tampa’s last 7.
Neither offense is in good form, and UNDER 8 (-115) is the play in this one. If the BetMGM line drops to 7.5, keep an eye on FanDuel Sportsbook, which might have a better leverage tag at Under 7.5 (-102).
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