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The Boston Red Sox (75-76) tussle with the Tampa Bay Rays (74-77) in the middle contest of a 3-game AL East series in Tampa. The 1st pitch at Tropicana Field will be at 6:50 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 4-4
Boston dropped Tuesday’s series opener and is just 1-4 since Thursday. At times, the Red Sox have looked like they could be an AL Wild Card team, but they have not helped their cause by going 5-11 since Aug. 31.
Prior to Tuesday’s opener, the Rays had gone 4-7 with a .632 OPS over their previous 11 games. Tampa Bay banged out 7 extra-base hits in its 8-run Tuesday outburst.
Red Sox at Rays projected starters
RHP Tanner Houck vs. RHP Ryan Pepiot
Houck (8-10, 3.24 ERA) is lined up for his 29th start. He owns a 1.17 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 169 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 8-3 loss at New York Mets Sept. 4
- Returning from a stay on the IL (shoulder)
- Career vs. Rays: 1-4, 4.45 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 29 H, 8 BB, 3 K in 7 appearance (5 starts)
Pepiot (8-6, 3.76 ERA) is tabbed for his 23rd start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 115 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 5-2 win at Cleveland Guardians Thursday
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 6.75 ERA (4 IP, 3 ER), 2 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 1 start
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Red Sox at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:29 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Rays -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+170) | Rays +1.5 (+210)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Red Sox at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Rays 3
Moneyline
Pepiot is a fade candidate in this spot. The 27-year-old has made 3 starts in September and has failed to go 4 frames in 2 of those. For the season, he has benefited from a .261 batting average on balls in play.
With Houck coming off the IL (he was on due to shoulder fatigue), there is some risk on the Boston side. But the righty has been a very good road hurler (3.12 ERA this season, 3.22 ERA since 2022), and his late-August-early-September starts pop in analytics if not in box scores. And per ESPN, current Tampa bats own an aggregate .588 OPS against Houck.
The Red Sox bullpen has been torched this month. But their 6.12 September ERA is untethered due to some bad-luck rates around the margins.
Boston has a likely enough chance at a rebound win to make it a value in this spot. BACK THE RED SOX (+100).
Run line/Against the spread
Too much juice crowding these prices. PASS.
Over/Under
Almost no lean here, but what there is swings to the high side. Both clubs have run expectancies in line with their plus and minus figures. The Pepiot fade and increased potential for a 1st-start-back misstep by Houck — and some exposed middle relief on both sides — are the mitigating factors.
BET THE OVER 7.5 (-110).
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