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The Boston Red Sox (75-75) visit the Tampa Bay Rays (73-77) Tuesday in the opener of a 3-game AL East series. First pitch at Tropicana Field is at 6:50 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 4-3
Boston is continuing a road swing that opened with the Red Sox losing 3 of 4 games at the New York Yankees over the weekend. At times, the Crimson Hose have looked like they could be a Wild Card team, but they have not helped their cause by going 5-10 since Aug. 31.
The Rays are back at home after a 10-game road trip. Tampa Bay went 4-6 on the voyage. The Rays offense struggled through a slash line of .226 /280/.356 (.636 OPS).
Red Sox at Rays projected starters
RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP Shane Baz
Pivetta (5-10, 4.24 ERA) is tabbed for his 24th startand 25th appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 129 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 5-3 win vs. Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
- Career vs. Rays: 1-6, 4.42 ERA (57 IP, 28 ER), 48 H, 30 BB, 60 K in 12 appearances (11 starts)
- Owns a 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Baz (2-3, 3.28 ERA) is making his 12th start. He owns a 1.19 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 60 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 loss at Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday
- Has authored a 1.88 ERA across his last 4 starts
- Has never faced the Red Sox
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Red Sox at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Red Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Rays -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+150) | Rays +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Red Sox at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 4, Rays 3
Moneyline
Pivetta figures to be undervalued by bettors. His analytics reveal a better expected ERA, and he has typically been a solid starter on the road.
Baz owns a 2nd-half ERA of 2.88. But the 25-year-old has been helped along by some very generous rates around the margins over that span. A since-the-break K-BB% of 8.4% is a concern.
The Rays are 1-8 over their last 9 series openers.
BET THE RED SOX (-115).
Run line/Against the spread
Lots of juice added here. PASS.
Over/Under
Indicators swing both ways here and what lean there is should be tagged as a small-confidence one.
Pivetta, rested bullpens and scuffling bats on both sides shade this one just slightly to the UNDER 7.5 (-110).
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