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The Boston Red Sox (22-22) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (18-25) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Busch Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; St. Louis won 3-0 last year
The Red Sox dropped their 3rd in 4 games Thursday with a 7-5 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. They made it interesting, though, as they battled back from 5-1 to tie it before succumbing. The Red Sox lead the majors with a 2.79 ERA and are tied for 15th with 4.3 R/game.
The Cardinals did what they do and failed to complete a sweep in a 7-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels Wednesday. They’re just 3-7 over their last 10 but come home for a 9-game homestand. Cardinals 1B Paul Goldschmidt is having an alarmingly bad season with a .206/.291/.300 slash line. He is hitting .140 with 22 K’s in 50 at-bats in May.
Red Sox at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Kyle Gibson
Bello (4-1, 3.13 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 31 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K Sunday against Washington Nationals
- Has never faced Cardinals before
- 2024 road stats: 2-0, 3.38 ERA (16 IP, 6 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 3 starts
Gibson (2-2, 3.67 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 49 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 3 BB, 5 K Saturday against New York Mets
- Last 5 GS vs. Boston: 3-1, 3.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 21 K in 28 1/3 IP
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Red Sox at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Cardinals -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+145) | Cardinals +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Red Sox at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Cardinals 2
Moneyline
The Cardinals are tied for 27th with 3.6 R/game and have a miserable 6-11 record at home. They strike out a lot and pop up so many balls in their spacious park that there’s a saturation in the cans of corn market in the Midwest. The Cards also seem to struggle against pitchers they’re facing for the first time.
So, what do the Red Sox do well? Pitch. What do the Cardinals not do well? Hit.
Take the RED SOX -115.
Run line/Against the spread
OF Tyler O’Neill makes his return to St. Louis after the team kind of threw him under the bus with some comments questioning his desire to play. Well, he has shown that desire in his new uniform with 10 homers. I don’t expect a warm reception for him, and I expect him to have a big revenge series. Take TYLER O’NEILL OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-105).
If you’re interested in a lottery ticket or have a free bet, consider O’Neill to hit a home run at +600. He had a flair for the dramatic in St. Louis, and I could see him parking a couple this weekend.
Over/Under
The weather is expected to be a humid 71 degrees with a light 3-mph breeze out towards the left-field foul pole. The Red Sox are 2-8 O/U over their last 10, and the Cards are 7-3 due to a mix of bad pitching and increased offense against bad teams. This is a dangerous number, and I will pay the juice to take the ALTERNATE UNDER 8.5 (-130).
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