The Boston Red Sox (27-18) and the Philadelphia Phillies (22-22) meet for the first time this season Friday in the opener of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
2020 series: Tied 2-2
The Red Sox just took the final 2 games of a 3-game series at the Toronto Blue Jays in Dunedin, Fla., Thursday. They scored three ninth-inning runs, capped by DH J.D. Martinez’s 2-run, go-ahead homer for an 8-7 victory.
Philly dropped the final 2 games of 3 to the visiting Miami Marlins, managing just 3 hits in a 6-0 loss Thursday.
LHP Martin Perez is projected to start for the Red Sox Friday. The 10-year veteran is 1-2 with a 3.40 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 8 starts this season.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 9-0 home victory vs. Los Angeles Angels Saturday
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-0, 3.98 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance
RHP Aaron Nola is Philadelphia’s projected starter. The seven-year vet is 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA (54 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 9 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 4-0 shutout by Toronto in Dunedin Saturday
- Career vs. Red Sox: 1-0, 1.64 ERA (22 IP, 4 ER), 0.77 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 3 starts
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Red Sox at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-150) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
BOSTON (+135) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. There’s decent value at +135 for the AL East’s first-place team, which is 5-2 in its last seven games and owns MLB’s best road record at 14-6.
Sure, Nola is good, but Perez has been holding his own lately. The Red Sox southpaw has a 1.61 ERA (22 IP 1/3, 4 ER) across his last four starts. Nola’s ERA in his last 4 outings is an unimpressive 4.76 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 12 ER), and Philly is 1-4 in its last 5 games and 4-7 in its last 11.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Back the RED SOX +1.5 (-150) to win a HALF UNIT. Boston is 14-6 ATS on the road, while Philadelphia is 10-12 ATS at home.
ATS records: Red Sox 26-19 | Phillies 21-23
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS. The lean would be to the Over 8.5 (-110), but I’m avoiding because Philly is on a 2-8 O/U run and the Under is 5-4 in Nola’s starts and 5-3 in Perez’s starts.
O/U records: Boston 21-23-1 | Phillies 22-22
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| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| 2021 MLB | 48-47-2 | 14-17-1 | -5.845 |
| 2020 MLB | 80-59-1 | 39-21 | +24.79 |
| 2021 (all sports) | 151-132-3 | 63-58-1 | +7.705 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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