The Boston Red Sox (47-43) head to Yankee Stadium Friday to begin a 3-game series with the New York Yankees (62-27) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees nickname odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston has lost 8 of the last 10 games, which includes a 4-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays after splitting a 4-game series with the Yankees last weekend.
N.Y. lost 2 of a 3-game interleague series with the lowly Cincinnati Reds Tuesday-Thursday and the Yankees are just 4-6 overall in the last 10.
Season series: N.Y. leads the season series 4-3 and has a plus-4 run differential in those meetings.
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Red Sox at Yankees projected starters
RHP Nathan Eovaldi vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery
Eovaldi is 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 68 1/3 IP over 12 starts.
- Last start: Won 1-0 June 8 at the Los Angeles Angels with 5 scoreless IP, 6 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the Yankees: One start, a no-decision in Boston’s 6-5 loss in N.Y. April 8 with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.
Montgomery is 3-2 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 96 IP over 17 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 6-5 loss at the Red Sox Saturday with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Red Sox: 0-0 with a 5.00 ERA (9 IP, 5 ER), 9 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 8 K in 2 starts.
Red Sox at Yankees odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:33 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Red Sox +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-155) | Yankees -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Red Sox at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Red Sox 3
Money line
LEAN YANKEES (-175) only because there’s a suspicious “line freeze” in the betting market as roughly 80% of the cash is on N.Y. per Pregame.com but the line is moving towards the Red Sox (+140).
Common sense tells us oddsmakers would adjust the line according to the market movement so this “line freeze” suggest the House is trying to bait bettors into staking more on the Yankees.
However, N.Y. has a 3-phase edge over Boston in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
For instance, Montgomery has a .276/.325/.430 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with an 87.1 mph exit velocity (EV) and 6.5° launch angle (LA) in 172 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Red Sox hitters, according to Statcast.
On the other hand, Eovaldi has a .301/.353/.489 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line with a 92.5 mph EV and 9.9° LA in 238 PA vs. current Yankees batters.
The way I’d get down on the YANKEES (-175) is with a “FLAT-BET” risking 1 unit instead of betting to win 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a “lean” to the Yankees -1.5 (+125) since they are 23-17 RL vs. AL East foes while the Red Sox +1.5 (-155) are 13-21 RL in division games.
But, N.Y. is just 5-12 RL with Montgomery on the hill with a minus-38.5% return on investment, Boston is 18-8 RL as road underdogs and 4 of the 7 Red Sox-Yankees meetings this season have been 1-run games.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-125) because there’s also a suspicious “line freeze” in the betting market for the total. More than three-fourths of the cash is on the Over 8.5 (-102) according to Pregame.com but the Under is way pricier and the total hasn’t budged off the opener.
That said, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) because 5 of the 7 Red Sox-Yankees meetings have gone Over Friday’s total and both ballclubs play more to the Under in their respective location-based O/U splits.
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