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The Boston Red Sox (65-58) and Houston Astros (67-56) open a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 3-0
The Red Sox split a 4-game set at the Baltimore Orioles, wrapping up the series with a 4-2 loss as +109 underdogs Sunday with the Under (9.5) hitting. Boston is 3rd in the AL East. It’s 7 games back of the Orioles and New York Yankees, who are tied for the division lead. The Red Sox are 3½ games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, which is held by the Kansas City Royals.
The Astros are coming off a 2-1 series win against the visiting Chicago White Sox over the weekend. Houston won 2-0 as a -343 favorite in the Sunday finale as the Under (8) easily cashed. SP Framber Valdez allowed 3 hits and 1 walk with 9 K’s in 7 scoreless innings for his 8th straight win in 10 games. The Astros are 4 games ahead of the 2nd-place Seattle Mariners in the AL West.
Red Sox at Astros projected starters
RHP Tanner Houck vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi
Houck (8-8, 3.01 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 146 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 9-7 home setback in 10 innings vs. Texas Rangers Wednesday
- 2024 road stats: 4-3, 3.10 ERA (58 IP, 20 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 10 starts
- 2024 vs. Astros: 0-0, 1 home start (Aug. 9), 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 8-4 defeat
- Career vs. Astros (regular season): 0-1, 2.63 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.6 K/9 in 4 appearances (2 starts)
Kikuchi (6-9, 4.49 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 132 1/3 IP with Astros and Toronto Blue Jays.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 3-2 victory at Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday
- 2024 home stats: 2-7, 4.66 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 13 starts
- 2024 vs. Red Sox: 0-1, 1 home start with Blue Jays (June 17), 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 7-3 defeat
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-3, 6.75 ERA (32 IP, 24 ER), 1.53 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 8 appearances (6 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Red Sox at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-200) | Astros -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Red Sox at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Red Sox 3
Moneyline
The ASTROS (-135) are 10-1 in their last 11 games and 3-0 in Kikuchi’s starts since he was acquired from Toronto.
Houck has had a disappointing 2nd half of the season. Boston is 0-5 in his starts since the All-Star break, and he has allowed 4 or more runs in 3 of the 5 outings.
BET ASTROS (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
The most likely scenario here is that the Astros win by 1 run. Two of Kikuchi’s 3 starts with Houston have resulted in 1-run wins for the Astros, and just 2 of Houston’s last 5 games overall have resulted in multi-run Astros wins. However, this line has too much vig to recommend a play.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Under is 5-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games and has hit in 2 straight for the Red Sox. While Houck has underperformed since the break, he has allowed a total of just 3 ER in 12 2/3 IP over his last 2 starts. Similarly, Kikuchi has given up a total of just 3 ER in 11 IP over his last 2 outings.
BET UNDER 8 (-105).
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