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The Boston Red Sox (67-60) and Houston Astros (72-56) meet Thursday at Minute Maid Park for the matinee finale of a 4-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Houston leads 2-1
Over the first 2 games of this series (both BoSox losses), Boston managed a combined 21 hits. The Red Sox faltered, though, in clutch situations, going just 4-for-28 (.143) with runners in scoring position. The Crimson Hose went 4-of-11 in such situations Wednesday and won 7-5 in 10 innings.
The Astros have scored 21 runs in this series. Since Aug. 6, Houston has averaged 6.25 runs per game on the strength of an .840 OPS.
Red Sox at Astros projected starters
RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP J.P. France
Bello (9-7, 3.70 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 119 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 8-3 win at New York Yankees Friday
- 2023 road stats: 5-2, 4.05 ERA in 53 1/3 IP across 9 starts
- Has never faced the Astros as a starter
France (9-4, 2.75 ERA) makes his 18th start and 19th appearance. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 108 IP across.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-0 home loss vs. Seattle Mariners Friday
- 2023 home stats: 4-2, 3.51 ERA in 56 1/3 IP across 9 starts
- Has never faced the Red Sox as a starter
- Owns a 1.98 ERA and 1.17 WHIP since June 29
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Red Sox at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Red Sox +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-190) | Astros -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Red Sox at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Red Sox 5
Moneyline
We can chip away at both starters as far as expected results vs. actual. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
There is an Over lean here and Boston is 1-4 across its last 5 get-away games on the road.
Look for more return on the Houston side. PASS on the current prices, but look to leverage an Astros -1.5 play if the tag gets north of +160.
Over/Under
The Over is 35-28-1 for Boston in road games and is 36-28-1 for Houston at Minute Maid. Seven straight Red Sox games and 10 of their last 12 contests on the road have hit the Over. Five straight Astros games and 5 of their last 6 at home have seen the Over cash.
Batting against right-handers was a 1st-half weakness for Houston, but the Astros own a .753 OPS against righties since the break. Overall, Houston has clocked an .836 OPS over its last 18 home games.
Boston has also been improving against right-handed pitching (.784 OPS in the 2nd half). The Sox own a solid .774 OPS overall on their current road trip.
Bello has been a better pitcher at home in his year-plus in the Majors. France has been aided this season by a .274 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a .233 BABIP with runners in scoring position.
Neither bullpen is in great shape at the back end. Figure this game having a probability of getting into double figures that outweighs pricing.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the better tag here: BACK THE OVER 9 (-105).
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