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The Boston Red Sox (14-11) and Cleveland Guardians (17-7) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 4-2
The Red Sox took out a bit of frustration on the Guardians on Wednesday, winning 8-0 behind RHP Cooper Criswell. Boston cashed as an underdog (+115) as the total (8) pushed at most shops. The Red Sox have still won just twice in 6 meetings with the Guardians, with both victories coming via shutout.
The Guardians had a 5-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s shutout loss. Cleveland is still an impressive 8-2 in the past 10 games, while the Over is 7-3-1 across the past 11 outings.
This is the final regular-season meeting between the teams.
Red Sox at Guardians projected starters
RHP Chase Anderson vs. RHP Triston McKenzie
Anderson (0-0, 2.77 ERA) makes his 1st start and 7th appearance of the season. He has a 0.85 WHIP, 0.7 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 13 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-1 win vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Sept. 26, 2023 (with the Colorado Rockies)
- 2023 road splits: 0-4, 7.20 ERA (35 IP, 28 ER), 41 H (9 HR), 13 BB, 25 K, .297 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance
McKenzie (2-2, 5.00 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 7.5 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 18 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 10-2 home victory vs. Oakland Athletics on Friday
- 2024 home splits: 2-1, 3.68 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 10 H (2 HR), 13 BB, 9 K, .189 OBA in 3 starts
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Red Sox at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Guardians -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-160) | Guardians -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, Red Sox 2
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (-155) are worth a look on getaway day, as they have won 4 of 6 meetings this season with the Red Sox (+130), and the pitching scales are tipped in their favor.
Anderson was a disaster on the road last season, and he makes his 1st start for Boston away from home. McKenzie struggled in only road start this season, but he has enjoyed the home cooking.
Run line/Against the spread
The GUARDIANS -1.5 (+135) are much riskier on the run line, laying the run and a half. While we don’t want to double-up on Cleveland, consider going lightly on the run line, while focusing mostly on the moneyline.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-105) is worth a look in this afternoon affair, but go with a half-unit play at most.
While Anderson was a disaster last season with the Rockies on the road, the Guardians managed no runs on Tuesday against Criswell. The wind is blowing in from the right-centerfield power alley at a 9-12 mph clip, knocking down potential home run balls.
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