The Boston Red Sox (31-31) and Cleveland Guardians (28-33) meet Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET to close out a 3-game series at Progressive Field. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 3-2
Boston and Cleveland have split the first 2 games of this series after Cleveland picked up a 5-2 victory Wednesday. The Red Sox have scored 2 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games and have averaged just 3.44 runs per game over their last 16 games.
Cleveland pitching has held the Sox homer-less over games 1 and 2. The Guardians own a fine 2.71 ERA over their last 8 home games.
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Red Sox at Guardians projected starters
LHP Matt Dermody vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Dermody is expected to be promoted from Triple-A Worcester for his 1st Major League start after 30 career relief outings.
- Owns a 5.60 and 1.39 WHIP across 27 1/3 career innings in 30 games (2016-22)
- Has notched a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP across 44 IP at Triple-A this season
- Has logged 6-plus innings in 4 of his last 5 AAA starts
Civale (1-1, 2.04 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 17 2/3 IP.
- Tossed 5 scoreless innings at the Minnesota Twins Friday in his return from the IL with an oblique injury
- Threw 83 pitches last time out; tossed 103 pitches and 80 pitches in his 2 April starts
Red Sox at Guardians odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:42 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Red Sox +124 (bet $100 to win $123) | Guardians -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-170) | Guardians -1.5 (+140
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 6, Guardians 5
Moneyline
The Red Sox are 14-6 in the last 20 meetings with the Guardians and 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland.
Boston has played a much tougher schedule and has a much stronger offense.
First-time starters or pitchers off long lay-offs are part of a decision tree for me. I’m out for the game usually when they are part of the equation, but Boston is still a lean Thursday. At a good price, +130 or better, Boston may be worth some partial-unit underdog action for some bettors but until then it’s a PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Over has a lean here, so Boston +1.5 (-170) becomes less of a lure. The pricing here offers no incentive.
PASS.
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Over/Under
The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 series meetings in Cleveland.
Civale — he of the 4.42 ERA from 2020-22 — has benefited from some generous rates around the margins through his small sample.
The price here is attractive. There is an upside to the Boston offense and some downside in Cleveland’s pitching numbers (including the Guardians bullpen figures). The back end of the Cleveland relief corps is in the likely-fatigued category.
TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-108).
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