The Boston Red Sox (19-13) vs. Baltimore Orioles (15-16) match up Friday at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 4-0 with a 4.18 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 in 28 IP over five starts.
Rodriguez faced Baltimore once this season and allowed three earned runs in five innings while whiffing seven batters. Overall, he boasts an impressive 31/3 K/BB so far this season.
RHP Matt Harvey is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles. He is 3-1 with a 4.06 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 31 IP over six starts.
Harvey faced the Red Sox in his first two starts of the season, and in those outings surrendered six earned runs in 9 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts.
In four starts since, he has just 13 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings, and his 16.4% K% for the season is fifth lowest among pitchers with 30 or more innings.
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Red Sox at Orioles odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Orioles +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (-105) | Orioles +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Red Sox 7, Orioles 3
Money line (ML)
Harvey isn’t striking batters out and is allowing a lot of hard contact, and his ERA estimators suggest his ERA should be higher than it currently is.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez has been unlucky in regards to his home run rate, as 20% of fly balls against him have left the park, a number that should come down.
The Red Sox have the pitching edge in this one and a clear advantage on the offensive side. Back the RED SOX (-165).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Red Sox have put up 7.2 runs per game over their last six contests, and continue their stretch of games against mediocre pitching.
For the season, they rank second in runs per game as well as in both wRC+ and slugging percentage vs right-handed pitching. This sets up to be another big game for the Boston bats, so the run line offers plenty of appeal.
Take the RED SOX -1.5 (-105).
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under has hit in 15 of the last 20 Baltimore games (with one push) while hitting in half of Harvey’s six starts.
The Over has hit in four of the last five for Boston, a span in which there has been an average of 14.4 runs per game scored. Their offense should do enough to push this game OVER 9 (-105).
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