The Baltimore Orioles (4-3) host the Boston Red Sox (4-3) Saturday for Game 2 of their three-game set at Camden Yards. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston won Game 1 of the series 7-3 Thursday in LHP Eduardo Rodríguez’s first start since 2019. Rodriguez pitched 5 innings and struck out 7 with no walks and surrendered 3 earned runs (two home runs) on 4 hits.
- Season series: Red Sox 1-0.
RHP Garrett Richards (0-1) makes his second start of the season Saturday for the Red Sox. Richards got shelled for 6 earned on 7 hits with 2 strikeouts and walks over just 2 innings pitched against the Orioles in his first start Sunday.
- Career vs. Orioles: 0-5 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.58 WHIP (31 2/3 IP, 24 ER, 42 H, 24 K, 8 BB) across 5 starts and 4 relief appearances.
LHP Bruce Zimmermann (1-0) is on the rubber for the Orioles. He won his first start last weekend vs. Richards and the Red Sox.
He pitched 6 innings, struck out 5 and walked just 1 while giving up 3 earned runs on 4 hits.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Red Sox at Baltimore odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Orioles +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+110) | Orioles +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Orioles 7, Red Sox 5
Money line (ML)
The ORIOLES’ (+115) lineup has been pretty lousy to start the season, but they got to Richards last weekend and I like Baltimore to hit him well again Saturday.
Baltimore hitters picked up on Richards’ stuff well; the Orioles have the third-highest out-of-the-zone swing rate on the season at 34.3% but, against Richards last week, they had a 14.3% out-of-the-zone swing rate.
So while Baltimore’s .636 BABIP against Richards might be taken as “flukey” by some MLB handicappers, I’m factoring it in heavily because these bad Orioles hitters keyed in on Richards’ stuff.
Zimmermann is making his third career start and MLB hitters aren’t yet familiar with him, as a result, his advanced and Statcast metrics were impressive vs. Boston.
The 26-year-old righty got Red Sox hitters to swing out of the strike zone on 45% of his pitches and Statcast grades Zimmermann’s chase rate in the 97th percentile after his first start against Boston.
I was entertaining taking Baltimore on the first 5 innings line but the Orioles had a higher hard-hit rate against the relievers Boston used after Richards last weekend.
GIMME ORIOLES (+115) for a half-unit only because Baltimore’s run line is a better wager.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
It’s just wise to take ORIOLES +1.5 (-135) for 1 unit since Baltimore is a winning team with a minus-2 run differential. Obviously, the Orioles could choke a lead late.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-110) for one-fifth of a unit because Boston’s lineup is solid whereas Baltimore just does well against Richards.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]