Why Boise State Will Win
– The defense is getting the job done. Overall, this isn’t your normal Boise State team – all of the various issues have a lot to do with that – and there are plenty of parts on the D that aren’t working like they should be, but the secondary has been fine, and it’s fantastic on third downs. No one has converted more than 40% of their third down chances, and the defense held three of the six teams to 25% or under on the conversion rate.
On the flip side …
– San Jose State’s defense hasn’t been anything great on third downs. Boise State doesn’t have a high-powered offense, but it finds a way to score. Capitalizing on every opportunity matters – the Broncos are a mortal lock to score in the red zone – and there’s just enough overall production to keep things moving. The Spartans have been able to get by despite not caring about the time of possession battle and being just okay defensively on third downs, but not this week.
– QB Hank Bachmeier hasn’t been amazing, but he’s good enough. He was great in the opener against Utah State, missed a few weeks, and came back to be solid.
He might not be the playmaker he was through the first part of the season, and hasn’t played a whole lot of football since mid-October of last year, but he’s been good enough, RB Andrew Van Buren has been good enough, and the team keeps on winning. However …
– Championship Week Schedule & Predictions
Why San Jose State Will Win
– Boise State has been just okay. It doesn’t run all that well, the offense has failed to get to 300 yards in two of the last three games, and the overall explosion isn’t there. It’s somehow managing to score a lot of points by going on decent drives, but it’s not the high-powered scoring machine of past seasons. Boise State isn’t going to run away and hide with this.
– San Jose State is for real. It has won every game by double-digits, it’s been balanced enough when it’s had to be, the offensive line has been terrific at letting everyone work, and there aren’t any issues with turnovers. Boise State needs to get its chances to score, but it’s not going to get the ground game going against this defensive front. The Broncos don’t come up with a ton of takeaways – San Jose State has given it up just five times all year.
– The Spartans got good quarterback play over the last few years, and Texas A&M/Arkansas transfer Nick Starkel has turned into just what the offense has needed in place of last year’s star, Josh Love.
He might have struggled a bit against Hawaii, and he missed most of the San Diego State game, but he’s been able to throw two touchdown passes or more in every game but the win over the Aztecs, he’s been accurate, and he’s got the experience and talent to be strong with time to operate.