The Liberty Flames (8-4) and Toledo Rockets (8-5) meet in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Liberty vs. Toledo odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Flames have had a slew of players hit the transfer portal, and it also lost coach Hugh Freeze to Auburn. Co-defensive coordinator and linebackers coach Josh Aldridge will serve as the interim coach for the bowl.
Liberty lost a depth receiver, Jaivian Lofton, to the transfer portal, but most of the damage from the portal is on the defensive side of the ball. LB Ahmad Walker, the team’s 3rd-leading tackler, has entered the portal. He was also tied for 4th in sacks (4.0). DL Stephen Sings V (3.5 sacks) has also opted out, joining Walker and 4 other defenders in the portal.
The Rockets saw QB DeQuan Finn (ankle) nicked up down the stretch, but he appears to be ready to go for the bowl game, and he will face lesser pressure with Sings and Walker not on the other side.
Toledo won the MAC Championship Game in Detroit against Ohio 17-7 on Dec. 3, covering as a 3.5-point favorite to snap an 0-5 ATS skid. The Under is 4-1 in the previous 5 games for the Rockets.
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Liberty vs. Toledo odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Liberty +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Toledo -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Liberty +4 (-111) | Toledo -4 (-109)
- Over/Under (O/U): 53 (O: -111 | U: -109)
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Liberty vs. Toledo picks and predictions
Prediction
Toledo 26, Liberty 20
Moneyline
Toledo (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return and that’s just too expensive — even as attractive as the Rockets look. Plus, the Rockets have dropped each of their past 4 bowl games, although Toledo’s last win was in the Boca Raton Bowl over Temple back in Dec. 2015.
PASS.
Against the spread
TOLEDO -4 (-109) is a strong play, as it hasn’t had any notable opt-outs or transfer portal announcements prior to the bowl game and Finn is expected to be healthy.
Liberty cannot be trusted, not only because it lost its head coach and several defenders, but this is a team that was dusted 49-14 in the regular-season finale by New Mexico State. The Flames carried a top-25 ranking in Nov., but they have dropped and failed to cover each of the past 3 games overall.
Over/Under
UNDER 53 (-109) is the play here, although go lightly.
Liberty allowed 49 points in the regular season finale, and the Over cashed in 2 of the final 3 for the Flames, mostly due to poor defense.
However, the Rockets cashed in the Under in 4 of their final 5 games, and are averaging just 15.5 PPG in the last 2 outings while allowing just 13.5 PPG.
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