If there’s one constant in the world of college football, it is change. Change in the rules, change in the style of play on the field, and most of all, change in coaching staffs.
Last year saw 24 schools—that’s 18% of the FBS—change head coaches. It wasn’t just at the small programs either. Mighty Power Five programs such as Wisconsin and Nebraska moved on from their respective coaches, eager to find a new leader to pave the way forward. Of course, there is a ripple effect in turn.
Take, for example, Wisconsin. They fired head coach Paul Chryst and would replace him with former Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell. The Bearcats, in turn, would snatch Scott Satterfield from Louisville, who would respond by bringing in Purdue’s coach Jeff Brohm. Because of one move, now four programs have new coaches.
This is the norm for college football.
CBS Sports recently released their 2023 College Football Hot Seat Rankings, which they describe as one of the most accurate models there is.
“The Hot Seat Rankings have long been an accurate predictor in terms of job security. Over the last five years, 30 of the 43 coaches rated 4 or worse in the preseason eventually lost their jobs (70%). That includes seven of eight last season; Syracuse’s Dino Babers was the lone coach to survive following a slightly improved 7-6 campaign. – Dennis Dodd, CBS Sports.
The rankings are simple. Coaches are graded on a scale from zero to five. Zero is the ideal. You are untouchable, and there are 15 coaches whom they consider untouchable. These are the Kirby Smarts of the world. A step above that at one is the “safe and secure” range. These coaches are pretty dang safe, but not safe if they decided to, say, lose every game for the next two seasons.
Moving up to two we have the “all good… for now” tier. These coaches are relatively safe, but a misstep in 2023 could warm their seat up a bit. They may even land in tier three, which is the “pressure is mounting tier.”
Finally, four and five are the tiers you don’t want to be in as a coach. Your butt is starting to really feel the heat below you, and it’s time to preserve your job.
Five is the most radical of hot-seats, where if you start the season off wrong, you might not make it out of September. That’s the “win or be fired” tier. Think where Scott Frost was last year.
Tier four is a bit more lenient, but a rough year will more than likely be your last. It’s the “start improving now” tier.
With the rules set into place, here is a look at what the hot seat rankings had to say about the coaches of the Big Ten.