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The 2023 New York Yankees averaged a below-league-average 4.15 runs per game while allowing 4.31. They were perhaps a bit fortunate to finish 82-80, which was good for 4th place in the AL East.
Many of the particulars from that 2023 roster return this season, and Yankees management is looking for a healthier outcome for that group. The club was beset by key injuries throughout, something that has become a familiar refrain with this franchise. To that end, the 2024 spring training campaign has seen plenty of injuries, chief among them a right elbow problem (nerve inflammation) for ace starter Gerrit Cole. The veteran right-hander is expected to be out until at least June.
New York’s run production will have to answer, and on that front, the Yankees have added OF Juan Soto, he of 160 home runs through the 1st 6 years of his career.
Let’s analyze the New York Yankees’ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and AL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.
New York Yankees World Series odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, March 22, at 5:37 p.m. ET.
Odds: +900 (bet $100 to win $900)
New York has the 4th-shortest odds to win it all. The Los Angeles Dodgers (+350), Atlanta Braves (+450), and Houston Astros (+800) have shorter odds.
At +900, New York has an implied probability of winning the World Series of 10% or 9/1 fractional odds.
The Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies and Oakland Athletics have the longest odds; all 3 are pegged at +50000.
The YANKEES (+900) assessment is an aggressive one; it calls for a successful Cole comeback, improved production in the rotation and more health in the batting order than what seems justified. PASS.
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New York Yankees playoff odds
Will they make the playoffs: Yes -250 | No +200
At -250, the implied make-the-brackets probability is 71.43%. That’s a fair hurdle, not because the Yanks figure as a 92- or 94-win team but because the AL East and overall AL Wild Card races figure as more compressed (more teams in the above-average category and fewer in the great category).
There is value in a YANKEES (-250) play.
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New York Yankees win total
Over/Under: 91.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Peg New York’s offense as being more productive than it was in 2023. But the pitching, while potentially solid, has a glaring question mark in Cole and a lot of little question marks in how other pieces fit together.
With preponderance of games coming against talented-but-not-great teams like the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto Blue Jays, the UNDER 91.5 (-115) is the leverage play here.
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To win AL East Division
- New York Yankees +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Baltimore Orioles +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Toronto Blue Jays +475 (bet $100 to win $475)
- Tampa Bay Rays +700 (bet $100 to win $700)
- Boston Red Sox +1300 (bet $100 to win $1,300)
New York’s implied win probability here is 36.36%. Its going to take some significant improvement over what was a 22-30 mark in AL East games a year ago, but this return figures on offering a sliver of value when pegging the division to maybe 3 teams making a lot of 2-steps-forward-1-or-2-steps-back climbs and falls in 2024.
Consider a small-unit wager on this prop. Something closer to +200 would be a full-value offering, but YANKEES (+175) to take the East flag is fair.
To win American League
Odds: +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
The Yanks are the 2nd-shortest odds here, behind the Astros (+300) but ahead of other contenders like the Orioles (+550) and Texas Rangers (+650).
New York has had its problems with Houston, and we should want a return just a bit higher here. PASS.
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