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The Minnesota Twins were an under-.500 club early last season, but came on strong in the 2nd half and are the betting favorites to win the AL Central in 2024. Last year’s Twins (87-75) went just 19-27 in 1-run games. They averaged 4.80 runs per game while allowing just 4.07, so its reasonable to project better outcomes in 2024.
Not much was added over the winter, and AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA in 184 IP) has moved on, signing as a free agent with the St. Louis Cardinals. But the daily lineup has a talented, youthful core. A lot of unheralded-but-productive bats are back, and the rotation still has RHP Pablo López, RHP Joe Ryan, and RHP Bailey Ober, who all figure as above-average MLB starters.
Let’s analyze the Minnesota Twins’ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and AL/NL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.
Minnesota Twins World Series odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday, March 25, at 10:20 p.m. ET.
Odds: +2500 (bet $100 to win $2,500)
The Twins are a top-tier club with this tag. They have the 9th-shortest odds to win the 2024 World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers (+350), Atlanta Braves (+450), and Houston Astros (+800) have the shortest odds. The Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies and Oakland Athletics have the longest odds; all 3 are pegged at +50000.
At +2500, Minnesota’s implied probability is 3.85% or 25/1 in fractional odds.
With the club winning a Wild Card series over the Toronto Blue Jays last season, it ended a 21-year drought of not advancing in the MLB postseason. With the make-up of this year’s club, winning a division flag is certainly possible, Making a deep run is plausible enough to make the Twins more of a 5% proposition, so peg the MINNESOTA (+2500) play as one with solid leverage.
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Minnesota Twins playoff odds
Will they make the playoffs: Yes -175 | No +145
The YES (-175) call is worth putting into your futures mix. The break-even point on that wager is a 63.64% chance to qualify for October bracket play. With the main contenders in the AL Central being the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians who have their share of question marks, Minnesota has a leg up worthy of a higher percentage expectation.
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Minnesota Twins win total
Over/Under: 86.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
The Twins clobbered opposing pitchers to the tune of an .809 OPS after the All-Star break last season. Some of that was due to getting some banged-up players back in the batting order. But Minnesota does have some players to be regarded as a bit fragile. So, that attrition may well be something the 2024 club deals with as well.
The team can win 90-plus games, but a lot of reputable models peg them in the 85-to-87 range. With top-of-the-rotation upside, the Twins profile as a club that can win 86 games and be built to win October series.
PASS on the total.
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To win AL Central Division
- Minnesota Twins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Detroit Tigers +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Cleveland Guardians +320 (bet $100 to win $320)
- Kansas City Royals +900 (bet $100 to win $900)
- Chicago White Sox +5000 (bet $100 to win $5,000)
Minnesota’s implied probability of winning the AL Central is 55.56% or 4/5 fractional odds. Combining the Guardians and Tigers into something in the 35% range is reasonable, so Minnesota is a solid value here.
BACK THE TWINS (-125) to take the flag in the AL Central.
To win American League
Odds: +1000 (bet $100 to win $1,000)
The landscape of the AL certainly includes the Astros and Yankees and likely another club from the AL East. Figure Minnesota as a dangerous 85-to-88-win club that has value with this return,
BACK MINNESOTA (+1000).
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