Late in the first half, it very much felt like this game had the possibility of spiraling out of control, with Green Bay down two scores and Miami nearing scoring position. However, a gutsy – although somewhat inefficient – performance by the Packers resulted in a 26-20 victory over the Miami Dolphins, with their playoff hopes very much alive and well.
To put a bow on this game, let’s go Behind the Numbers with the stats and figures you need to know from the Packers’ performance.
192
It was a matchup that greatly favored the Green Bay Packers–the blitz-heavy Dolphins against Aaron Rodgers. Despite the ups and downs that Rodgers and the offense as a whole have experienced this season, he has been very good against the blitz, completing 66% of his 106 pass attempts at 7.6 yards per attempt. Miami, meanwhile, entered Sunday’s game with the seventh-highest blitz rate in the NFL.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Dolphins blitzed Rodgers on 26 of his dropbacks, but Rodgers threw for 192 of his 238 total yards on those plays, along with his lone touchdown. Even without Yosh Nijman at right tackle, the offensive line held up well, surrendering only five pressures the entire game. For a veteran quarterback of Rodges’ caliber, blitzing him sets up a simple game of pitch and catch in most instances, as he, more often than not, is prepared for the blitz, knowing where it will be coming from or at least who to get the ball to in those situations. This is also a Dolphins secondary that ranked 26th by DVOA in pass defense prior to Sunday’s game, and when blitzing as frequently as they did, they were often down a defender in coverage.
Opponents will want to blitz Rodgers, but perhaps the best way to defend him is to do what the Rams did by sitting back in cover-2 the entire game, forcing Rodgers to be patient and take what’s there. If anything, the Rams were able to keep the Green Bay passing game in check.
61 and 3.5
I’ve written about it before, but the run game and the number of points the Packers score have gone hand in hand since Week 9 against Detroit–or at least that was the case before the Dolphins game. In the four games prior, where the Packers scored at least 24 points, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon averaged 138 rushing yards per game at more than five yards per carry. In the two games against Detroit and Tennesse, where they scored just nine and 17, respectively, the duo rushed for 112 yards at 2.9 yards per attempt.
However, against the Dolphins, the run game was slowed, or for the first two quarters, nonexistent, but Green Bay still found ways to put up points. In total, Jones and Dillon rushed for 61 yards at 3.5 yards per rush. Especially early on, Miami was very much daring Green Bay to throw, and against a sub-par secondary, the Packers were happy to oblige. On top of that, the Dolphins interior defensive line controlled the line of scrimmage as well.
But because of four turnovers and the Packers coming up with a few big throws through the air, they were able to put up 26 points, and it could have been more had they been more effective in the red zone. A somewhat balanced run-pass mix, along with success, will continue to be important for the Packers as the run game opens up the rest of the offense, but there will be times when it simply isn’t working, and they will have to find other ways to win. On previous occasions, when this happened, they were unable to do so.
0
The Miami big-play passing game was always going to be a problem for the Packers, and we saw that early on as the Tua Tagovailoa entered halftime averaging 15.2 yards per attempt with Tyreek Hill totaling 84 yards and Jaylen Waddle 96 plus a touchdown. But in the second half, things turned around dramatically for the Packers, in large part due to pressure, turnovers, and some yelling from defensive backs coach Jerry Gray.
In the third and fourth quarters, the Packers were able to generate more consistent pressure, disrupting Tagovailoa’s timing, which is an important part of the Miami offense with the quick passing game, and forcing him out of the pocket. Matt LaFleur also talked about how all 11 players were on the same page that second half after having a few coverage breakdowns early on.
On the Jaire Alexander interception, numerous defenders were around Hill, and Tagovailoa delivered a high pass. De’Vondre Campbell read Tagovalioa’s eyes perfectly and got into position to make the play, while Rasul Douglas baited Tagovailoa into thinking he was taking the underneath route, but he instead dropped back.
The end result was no points for the high-powered Miami offense in the second half. Tagovailoa threw for just 81 yards, while Hill and Waddle combined for 66.
4
Jarran Reed had his best game of the season, leading the team in pressures with four while also recording four stops, and for what it’s worth, he had PFF’s second-highest run defense grade out of all interior defenders in Week 16.
On top of all of that, he also had perhaps the biggest play of the game, forcing a fumble and recovering it just before halftime. At that point, Miami was up 20 to 10 at midfield and threatening to score. The game very much felt like it was going to get out of hand at that point, with the Dolphins potentially going up three scores. But instead, Reed forced the turnover, the Packers kicked a field goal and then scored a touchdown to open the third quarter. All of a sudden, it was a tie game.
4
In the first half, the Green Bay Packers lost four starters to injury–Keisean Nixon, Christian Watson, Dean Lowry, and Yosh Nijman, not to mention that Aaron Jones was used sparingly throughout the game after being on the injury report this week. However, in the place of those starters, the backups filled in and played very well, helping the Packers secure the win.
On defense, Innis Gaines took over in the slot, along with Darnell Savage taking snaps at safety after a rough first half from Rudy Ford. Both defenders played key roles in the Packers shutting out Miami in the second half. Devonte Wyatt saw more snaps without Lowry and forced two quarterback pressures. Patrick Taylor, meanwhile, had a key third-down reception on what ended up being a scoring drive, along with picking up a blitzer on Rodgers’ pass to Marcedes Lewis. And although Royce Newman was called for two penalties, PFF credited him with only one pressure, and there was little change in the Packers’ offensive game plan with him on the field. This was very much a total team effort.
2 and 1
The simplest path to the playoffs for the Packers is to win their final two games and for Washington to lose at least one of theirs. They will be at home for Cleveland in Week 17, followed by Dallas. Another path for Green Bay includes winning out, along with the New York Giants losing their final two games.
2 other key stats
Third downs: Green Bay was an abysmal 2-14 on third downs, and I believe the root of those issues comes from their ineffectiveness on the ground, which set up a lot of third and long situations. They were, however, 3-5 on fourth down.
It also wasn’t only the Packers who struggled on third downs, but the Dolphins as well. The issue for the Green Bay defense was that they didn’t force Miami into many third-down situations, but when they did, they were just 2-7.
Total plays: Thanks to four turnovers by the defense, the Packers’ offense ran 20 more plays than Miami, which proved to be pivotal. For one, that was 20 fewer opportunities that the Dolphins’ explosive offense had to put points on the board, and it also gave a Packers’ offense that wasn’t exactly efficient more bites at the apple.