Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
The 2022 College Football Playoff race is shaping up to be less of a race and more of a foregone conclusion. Sure, it’s only Week 6, and there’s a ton of football to still be played.
But unless something disastrous happens to one of these teams, it’s pretty likely that Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State will make up three of the four playoff teams. If that scenario plays out, it leaves teams like Clemson, Michigan and USC fighting for that last spot.
So if those six teams are playoff contenders this season, what about the dark horses?
It’s going to be awfully tough for some of these super outside candidates to keep up with some of the powerhouses and make the four-team playoff, but we’re rooting for a fun playoff race with chaos and room for debate.
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Going into Week 6’s matchups, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0)
- Playoff: 86.9 percent
- National championship game: 62.8 percent
- Win championship: 41.2 percent
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)
- Playoff: 78.3 percent
- National championship game: 47.4 percent
- Win championship: 24.8 percent
3. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0)
- Playoff: 64.9 percent
- National championship game: 34.6 percent
- Win championship: 15.7 percent
4. Clemson Tigers (5-0)
- Playoff: 52.2 percent
- National championship game: 18.2 percent
- Win championship: 6.3 percent
After beating Arkansas last week without quarterback Bryce Young for much of the game, Alabama’s playoff chances in all three categories went up slightly. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s chances, after a Rutgers win, are virtually identical all around compared with last week’s numbers.
And compared with Week 5, Clemson’s chance to make the playoff (43.1 percent), advance to the title game (14.6 percent) and win it all (4.9 percent) got a notable boost after beating N.C. State. As we’ve previously speculated, if the Tigers could take down both Wake Forest and N.C. State, they’d be back to being a playoff frontrunner and could reasonably finish the season with an undefeated record and an ACC championship.
Georgia’s playoff chances, on the other hand, took a small but clear tumble after the Bulldogs had to come from behind to beat Missouri, 26-22, in Week 5. Last week, their chance to make the playoff was at 71.8 percent, advancing to the national championship game was at 42.0 percent and winning a second consecutive title was at 21.4 percent. Nothing to be concerned about as Georgia is still very much a playoff favorite, but the gap between it and Clemson, along with the other hopefuls, isn’t quite as large anymore.
Here’s a look at the rest of the teams and dark-horse contenders with the top-10 best College Football Playoff chances in Week 6:
5. Michigan Wolverines (5-0)
- Playoff: 39.8 percent
- National championship game: 15.3 percent
- Win championship: 5.1 percent
6. USC Trojans (5-0)
- Playoff: 17.9 percent
- National championship game: 4.7 percent
- Win championship: 1.5 percent
7. Utah Utes (4-1)
- Playoff: 12.5 percent
- National championship game: 4.0 percent
- Win championship: 1.5 percent
8. Ole Miss Rebels (5-0)
- Playoff: 9.9 percent
- National championship game: 2.9 percent
- Win championship: 0.9 percent
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)
- Playoff: 7.7 percent
- National championship game: 1.7 percent
- Win championship: 0.4 percent
10. Tennessee Volunteers (4-0)
- Playoff: 7.2 percent
- National championship game: 2.2 percent
- Win championship: 0.7 percent
Tennessee returns to this top-10 list, while Minnesota’s appearance on it was short-lived.
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