Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
We’re still about a month away from the official College Football Playoff rankings, but that’s mostly OK because beyond the top-2 teams — which are clearly Alabama and Georgia no matter what you’re looking at — the remaining possible playoff picture is murky.
Still undefeated, both the Crimson Tide’s and Bulldogs’ playoff chances got a small boost going into Week 6, and they’re at 86.1 percent and 87.0 percent, respectively, per ESPN’s FPI. But beyond the increasingly likelihood that the SEC will have to reps in the College Football Playoff this year, the other two spots seem largely up for grabs.
After Oklahoma barely beat Kansas State, it’s holding onto its spot in the top-4, but that could change after playing Texas on the road in Week 6. And losses from Oregon, Florida, Texas A&M and Notre Dame — plus Clemson’s two early this season — have made the current playoff picture nearly unrecognizable compared with previous years.
But the Big Ten has clearly benefitted from some early chaos — CHAOS! — and the conference has four teams among the top-10 with the best playoff chances in Michigan, Penn State, Iowa and one-loss Ohio State. But the Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes also face off in Week 6 in a game that has serious potential to impact their playoff dreams.
And then there’s Cincinnati, which is making perhaps the most compelling case for a Group of 5 team in the playoff for the first time. The Bearcats’ playoff chances got more than a 20 percent bump after they beat Notre Dame, while the Fighting Irish and the Ducks — who were replaced by Michigan in the top-4 best playoff chances — are among the teams whose playoff hopes plummeted after Week 5.
Here’s a look at the teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff going into Week 6, according to ESPN’s FPI as of Wednesday.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0)
- Playoff: 87.0 percent
- National championship game: 62.4 percent
- Win championship: 38.1 percent
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0)
- Playoff: 86.1 percent
- National championship game: 60.3 percent
- Win championship: 35.4 percent
3. Oklahoma Sooners (5-0)
- Playoff: 48.5 percent
- National championship game: 18.7 percent
- Win championship: 6.6 percent
4. Michigan Wolverines (5-0)
- Playoff: 34.3 percent
- National championship game: 12.8 percent
- Win championship: 4.5 percent
5. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0)
- Playoff: 31.9 percent
- National championship game: 8.2 percent
- Win championship: 2.6 percent
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1)
- Playoff: 29.9 percent
- National championship game: 14.3 percent
- Win championship: 5.8 percent
7. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-0)
- Playoff: 21.5 percent
- National championship game: 6.0 percent
- Win championship: 1.8 percent
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)
- Playoff: 11.9 percent
- National championship game: 3.4 percent
- Win championship: 1.0 percent
9. Texas Longhorns (4-1)
- Playoff: 10.9 percent
- National championship game: 3.7 percent
- Win championship: 1.1 percent
10. Pittsburgh Panthers (4-1)
- Playoff: 9.2 percent
- National championship game: 2.7 percent
- Win championship: 0.9 percent
Among the notable playoff-hopeful teams that used to be among the top 10 include: Clemson (6.0 percent chance to make the playoff), Oregon (4.6 percent), Notre Dame (2.3 percent) and Florida (1.9 percent).
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