The No. 9 Baylor Bears (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) face the No. 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1, 8-1) Saturday in the 2021 Big 12 Championship Game. Kickoff from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, is set for noon ET. Below, we look at the Baylor vs. Oklahoma State odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
This will be a rematch of Oklahoma State’s 24-14 win Oct. 2 over Baylor in Stillwater, Okla. The Cowboys outgained Baylor 401-280 in total yards and controlled the time of possession (34:27 – 25:33) throughout the game.
Baylor has since gone 5-2 ATS with straight-up wins over Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Texas Tech in its last three games. The Bears have one of the nation’s best running games (227.7 yards per game, eighth nationally) and are stout against the run on defense (122.9 yards allowed per game, 22nd); however, a mediocre passing game means that points may be at a premium like they were in the first meeting.
Oklahoma State is coming off a major 37-33 win against rival Oklahoma last Saturday and is playing for a potential spot in the College Football Playoffs with a win. The Cowboys have covered nine of their last ten games thanks to an elite defense that ranks fourth in yards allowed per play (4.4) and sixth in points per game (16.4).
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Baylor +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Oklahoma State -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Baylor +4.5 (-107) | Oklahoma State -4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Baylor vs. Oklahoma State odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Oklahoma State 27, Baylor 20
Money line
Oklahoma State was the more dominant team the first time these two met, and the Cowboys have only improved since then.
PASS on the money line and get better odds for the Cowboys against the spread.
Against the spread
The way Oklahoma State beat Baylor earlier this season was a blueprint for what they’ve done all year: suffocate on defense, control the time of possession, and have just enough juice on offense to pull away.
There’s a narrative that it’s hard to beat the same team twice in a season, and while Baylor’s 18th-ranked offense (6.5 yards per play) poses a challenge for the Cowboys, Oklahoma State is rolling and should have minimal letdown risk coming off that Oklahoma win with so much on the line.
Take OKLAHOMA STATE -4.5 (-115) to win by around a touchdown.
Over/Under
Baylor has gone Under in each of its last three games, but those lines were all 49.5 points or higher. The Bears should be able to move the ball at times and Oklahoma State has just enough firepower on offense to take this game well into the 40s.
A slight lean to the OVER 46.5 (-108) is the call in what looks like a pretty accurate line.
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