The Baylor Bears (1-3 overall, 1-3 Big 12) travel to Ames, Iowa for a Saturday night Big 12 affair against the Iowa State Cyclones (4-2, 4-1). Kickoff is at 7 p.m. ET. We analyze the Baylor-Iowa State college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Baylor at Iowa State: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Baylor +450 (bet $100 to win $450) | Iowa State -625 (bet $625 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Baylor +13.5 (-110) | Iowa State -13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Baylor at Iowa State: Three things to know
- Iowa State RB Breece Hall ranks No. 2 in FBS with 901 rushing yards (150.2 per game). Hall has bolted for 11 rushing touchdowns, and he leads an ISU ground game that has outgained all six opponents on the ground this fall.
- Baylor took a 20-0 lead in last year’s home game against ISU. The Bears hung on to defeat the Cyclones 23-21 in a game that was nearly even on the yardage front (BU 411, ISU 405). That victory was part of a season-opening nine-game winning streak.
- Under new head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor has thus far flipped the script on committing turnovers. A year ago, the Bears ranked 68th in the nation with 19 giveaways. This season, BU has committed just three turnovers in four games. That possession protection is all the more impressive with two of Baylor’s foes (Texas, West Virginia) ranked 10th and 28th, respectively, in takeaways.
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Baylor at Iowa State: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks
Prediction
Iowa State 31, Baylor 20
Money line (ML)
STEER CLEAR of the juice-filled straight-up prices. As with the analysis below, there’s a lot of gray area in laying this one out.
Against the spread (ATS)
Baylor is 1-3-1 ATS since last year’s bowl game, and the one push came on a garbage-time, short-field score against Texas. This year’s games against Texas (Oct. 24) and West Virginia (Oct. 3) seem to bode well for a play on the Bears in this one, but BU was a combined plus-5 in turnovers over those two games. Neither one of those foes is a top-50 team running the ball; Iowa State’s 5.8 yards per carry average ranks eighth in the nation.
Still, there are analytics pointing to a margin closer to one score than two. Then there is ISU’s recent performance log when playing as a home favorite: The Cyclones are 5-9 ATS over their last 14 such games. The cross signals are enough to make for a PASS. Better value can be found on the high side of a low total.
Over/Under (O/U)
Saturday’s weather in Ames might get a bit breezy, but it’s an otherwise solid forecast favoring the offenses. Don’t expect a textbook Big-12 shootout, but this game draws a total a few points too low. TAKE THE OVER 47.5 (-110).
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