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The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays open their seasons Thursday. First pitch from Rogers Centre is set for 3:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Orioles won 7-6 last season
Baltimore went 91-71 last season, finishing second in the AL East behind the New York Yankees and securing the top Wild Card spot. However, their playoff run was short-lived, as they were swept 2-0 by the Kansas City Royals in the AL Wild Card Series. The Orioles lost key contributors, including SP Corbin Burnes and OF Anthony Santander — who signed with Toronto — this offseason without making major replacements. Their postseason hopes now rest on the development of their young core, which must take another step forward to push Baltimore deeper into October.
Toronto finished last in the AL East with a 74-88 record, missing the postseason for the first time since 2021. The Blue Jays haven’t won a playoff series since 2016, but they were aggressive this offseason in hopes of changing that. In addition to signing Santander, they added veteran SP Max Scherzer and shutdown RP Jeff Hoffman. Toronto also bolstered its defense by trading for 3-time Gold Glove 2B Andrés Giménez. With these key additions, the Blue Jays aim to bounce back and reestablish themselves as contenders in the American League this season.
Orioles at Blue Jays projected starters
RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP José Berríos
Eflin (10-9, 3.59 ERA in 2024) makes his season debut. He had a 1.15 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 165 1/3 IP across 28 starts for the Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays last year.
- 2024 road stats: 5-6, 4.24 ERA (97 2/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 17 starts
- 2024 vs. Blue Jays: 1-1, 5.79 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 in 4 starts
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 3-3, 5.72 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.51 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 8 starts and 1 relief apperance
Berríos (16-11, 3.60 ERA in 2024) makes his season debut. He had a 1.15 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 192 1/3 IP across 32 starts last year.
- 2024 home stats: 10-3, 3.18 ERA (93 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 15 starts
- 2024 vs. Orioles: 0-0, 2.77 ERA (13 IP, 4 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 4.2 K/9 in 2 starts
- Career vs. Orioles: 10-1, 2.95 ERA (103 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 16 starts
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Orioles at Blue Jays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:50 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Blue Jays -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Orioles -1.5 (+145) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Orioles at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 5, Orioles 2
Moneyline
BET BLUE JAYS (-105).
The Blue Jays are a solid pick on Opening Day. They won 4 of 6 matchups against Baltimore at Rogers Centre in 2024 and were a stronger team at home overall, hitting .244 as a group. Toronto also fared better against right-handed pitching, batting 18 points higher than against lefties.
Berríos was a different pitcher at home, allowing just 10 home runs across 93 1/3 innings at Rogers Centre. In his last home start against Baltimore, he gave up just 2 earned runs over 6 innings in a no-decision. Toronto also added offensive firepower this offseason, signing Santander to bolster the lineup.
Back the Blue Jays as underdogs to start the season with a win in front of their home crowd.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’m not going to play around with the run line on Opening Day. I’ll stick with the straight moneyline bet.
Over/Under
PASS.
My initial lean is the Under, but with Opening Day energy and nerves in play, anything can happen. It’s tough to gauge how hitters and pitchers will perform this early in the season. With too many unknowns, I’m avoiding the total and sticking to a moneyline bet instead.
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