The Baltimore Orioles (59-54) battle divisional-foe Tampa Bay Rays (59-53) Sunday in the finale of a 3-game set at Tropicana Field. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 9-9
The first 2 games of this series have been routs in each direction. Baltimore took Friday’s game 10-2, and Tampa responded with a haymaker 8-2 victory Saturday. The teams are jockeying for position in the AL East as the O’s sit in 4th place, 12.5 games out. Tampa is in 3rd a half-game ahead of them. Baltimore is 7-3 over its last 10 contests and 20-10 over the last 30.
Tampa has lost 4 of its last 6 games and is just 14-16 over its last 30. The Rays are good at home, though, with a 34-22 mark. They also hold their own within the division at 26-22.
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Orioles at Rays projected starters
RHP Jordan Lyles vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen
Lyles (9-8, 4.35 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 130 1/3 IP.
- Tossed 5 2/3-scoreless IP with 3 H and 4 BB allowed the last time he faced the Rays July 28 but had allowed 11 ER over 7 2/3 IP across his 2 previous starts against them.
- Extreme home/road splits: 5-6, 5.70 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on road vs. 4-2, 2.73 ERA and 1.42 WHIP at home.
Rasmussen (6-4, 2.96 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 91 1/3 IP.
- Much better at home at 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.90 WHIP vs. 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road.
- Has a 4.15 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 in 2 starts against Baltimore this season.
Orioles at Rays odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Orioles +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Rays -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-150) | Rays -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Orioles at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 6, Orioles 4
Money line
This one can go either way. I like Tampa to win, but I’m not interested in dropping -175 on it. Instead, let’s focus on the pitchers.
Lyles, while he has allowed just 3 ER in his last 3 starts, he has an ERA near 6 on the road. Rasmussen, while good at home, has an ERA over 4 against Baltimore this season. That tells me there will be runs scored early.
Let’s take OVER 3.5 RUNS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-145).
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Run line/Against the spread
Again, this can go either way, and both teams have blown the other out in the first 2 games of this series. So we’ll PASS entirely on this section and go for the total.
Over/Under
The Over is my favorite wager in this matchup. The Over is 4-0 for the Orioles in their last 4 against teams with a winning record and 5-0 on the road under the same circumstances. The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 contests between these sides in Tampa and 4-1 in the teams’ last 5 meetings overall.
Let’s take OVER 7.5 (-120) for TWO UNITS.
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